Value Downunder Profile picture
Part-time researcher and analyst. Value orientated. ASX focused. Turning over unusual stones. I do regular deep dives (see my pinned tweet) and company updates.

Feb 12, 2022, 6 tweets

Things are about to get reel interesting in the Salmon World.🐟

European inventories are depleted, demand keeps increasing, and supply is contracting. We're up ~40% from the start of the year, and prices have hit 100NOK in China!

"The salmon price is speeding away - towards the highest level of all time"

"Faroe islands, Scotland, Chille, Norway - they all have shortages. It is a perfect storm". <-Music to my ears.

They're all up 10%, 15%, 20% over the past month:
👊Mowi $MOWI
👊Bakkafrost $BAKKA
👊Leroy $0GM2
👊SalMar $SALM

Six months ago, inventories were looking really weak. A company needs around ~10% of biomass as inventory (working capital).

Coming out of European summer, inventories should have been peaking - while typically in Aus they should be low like Huons.

Trade data for 🇦🇺shows volume is up 100% and revenue is up 200% for salmon exports 1H21 vs 1H22

A very large portion of this is going to be from Tassal's because no-one else in Aus has inventory. Petuna's fish have boiled and Huon emptied their freezers prior to the takeover.🤷

Tassal $TGR half yearly report is out on Tuesday 15th of Feb. 🔖

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