Value Downunder Profile picture
Feb 12, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Things are about to get reel interesting in the Salmon World.🐟

European inventories are depleted, demand keeps increasing, and supply is contracting. We're up ~40% from the start of the year, and prices have hit 100NOK in China! Image
"The salmon price is speeding away - towards the highest level of all time"

"Faroe islands, Scotland, Chille, Norway - they all have shortages. It is a perfect storm". <-Music to my ears. Image
They're all up 10%, 15%, 20% over the past month:
👊Mowi $MOWI
👊Bakkafrost $BAKKA
👊Leroy $0GM2
👊SalMar $SALM Image
Six months ago, inventories were looking really weak. A company needs around ~10% of biomass as inventory (working capital).

Coming out of European summer, inventories should have been peaking - while typically in Aus they should be low like Huons. Image
Trade data for 🇦🇺shows volume is up 100% and revenue is up 200% for salmon exports 1H21 vs 1H22

A very large portion of this is going to be from Tassal's because no-one else in Aus has inventory. Petuna's fish have boiled and Huon emptied their freezers prior to the takeover.🤷 Image
Tassal $TGR half yearly report is out on Tuesday 15th of Feb. 🔖

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More from @DownunderValue

Sep 30, 2022
The global salmon industry is in turmoil as fears of contagion of the Norwegian resource tax hits the Faroe Islands.🐟

P/F Bakkafrost $BAKKA is down another 12% overnight, while the big Norwegians $MOWI $SALM $LSG continue to slide.

Let's take a look at the Faroe Islands 🧵👇 Image
1. Yesterday I looked at Norway's resource tax and figured it was too difficult to find a good risk/reward bet. Right now the best forecasters of European monetary and fiscal policy seem to be a random number generator. Today I'm looking at Faroe Islands.
2. Investment Thesis for $BAKKA:
🐟Quality at a reasonable price
🐟Tax policy uncertainty
🐟Growing volume
🐟Cost competitive
🐟Scottish efficiencies
🐟CAPEX cycle
Read 24 tweets
Sep 29, 2022
Norwegian salmon stocks have collapsed overnight, with the Government threatening a 40% super-resource tax.

$SALM.OL Salmar -30%
$LRY.OL Lerøy -28%
$GSF.OL Grieg -26%
$MOWI.OL -19%

This would destroy the industry. Maybe.

Time to take a look 👇
thefishsite.com/articles/norwa….
Norway produces over 50% of the world's Atlantic salmon. So this is kind of a big deal. Image
Unsurprisingly, the largest salmon companies in the world are also in Norway. In fact, the four largest are from Norway. This is because they have a huge cost advantage in the cold fjords which provide better growing conditions. Image
Read 23 tweets
Aug 31, 2022
Delorean's $DEL $DEL.AX update to the market has left a fair bit to be desired. Engineering division has been decimated, financing remains out of reach, though retail is doing alright. Time to hit the panic button? 🚨

Let's take a closer look 🤏🧵👇 Image
If you don't know what Delorean is, please don't @ me, just look at the original deep dive.
There's no sugar coating the results. Huge loss of $10m NPAT.

But you wouldn't notice if you read the investor presentation, because they just simply don't report it 🤷 Image
Read 19 tweets
Aug 31, 2022
Clean Seas $CSS $CSS.AX FY22 results look really good. I recently spoke with Rob Gratton (CEO) and got to understand more of their business model and strategic direction.

Here's a short thread on my thoughts and why I don't hold 🤏🧵👇
The FY22 results look very strong. Volume growth (3.7kt), ~20% increase in pricing, ~37% revenue increase, 19% reduction in production costs, etc. And for the first time, profitable! 🎯
But I have mentioned before, this is really a bull-whip effect from the diabolical FY20 which saw inventory build up etc, and now being sold in FY22.
Read 11 tweets
Aug 29, 2022
Lark Distilling Co. $LRK $LRK.AX FY22 results have come at the top end of guidance.

Asset base is growing rapidly, revenues increasing, though sales expenses are ramping up too. Meanwhile, no news on the search for a CEO.

Let's take a look🧵👇
But before we jump in, if you want to see the original deep dive you can find it on my pinned tweet along with all the others.

Or here 👇
And you can find all company updates and commentary in reverse chronological order here👇

Read 16 tweets
Aug 18, 2022
Treasury Wine Estates $TWE $TWE.AX FY22 results came out, and they're good considering the China wine-ban is still being flushed out. Total revenues down, but margins and NPAT are both up 🍷😋

Let's take a quick look 👇
You can find my original thread here where I outlined TWE as an asset play, with the hope that profits may return in due course.

To put in perspective the FY22 results, you can see here the 1H22 results were less negative than the market expected. But 2H22 has been pretty strong, which is why NPAT is up *only* 4% but almost 10% if you annualise 2H22.

Read 14 tweets

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