Thread by @therealarod1984

2/16 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - projecting into hospitalization peak now

1/n

2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/15, Cases falling through 8K per day
* Hospitalization Census into the 7K range and falling fast
* Crazy high case peak, while hospitalizations were less than previous waves...

2/n

2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* All the hospitalization metrics in freefall
* Notice again how much smaller this ICU/vent peak is than previous Covid waves
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/11, projected thru 1/25

3/n

2/16 TX Severe - Pg 4

* Jan 12-25 = projections to dates already 80-95% reported
* Jan 26 on = TBD
* Projecting thru end of hospital peak now
* Still don't project a +275 fatality day in this wave
* Going to be significantly less fatalities this wave than previous

4/n
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2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 5

* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc

5/n

2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 6

* CFR on a date in this chart is determined by dividing the subsequent 7 days 7DMA of fatalities over the previous 7 days 7DMA of cases
* CFR line here is through Jan 19 & very accurate.
* CFR is projected through start of hosp peak now

6/n

2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 7

* CFR @ still running at 0.46% at start of hospitalization peak
* Will slowly creep back but how far up is TBD
* <1% CFR is seasonal flu territory
* Omicron doing its Omicron thing which is gently blow up Mandate Theater

7/n

2/16 TX Severe Conclusion

We're about 1 week from seeing how Fatalities peaked during this wave. The way fatality reporting works, it takes 3+ weeks for most of the Death Certificates to arrive to the state for a particular day. But we will soon confirm our assumptions.

8/end