* Numbers through 2/15, Cases falling through 8K per day
* Hospitalization Census into the 7K range and falling fast
* Crazy high case peak, while hospitalizations were less than previous waves...
2/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3
Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:
* All the hospitalization metrics in freefall
* Notice again how much smaller this ICU/vent peak is than previous Covid waves
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/11, projected thru 1/25
3/n
2/16 TX Severe - Pg 4
* Jan 12-25 = projections to dates already 80-95% reported
* Jan 26 on = TBD
* Projecting thru end of hospital peak now
* Still don't project a +275 fatality day in this wave
* Going to be significantly less fatalities this wave than previous
4/n .
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 5
* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc
5/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 6
* CFR on a date in this chart is determined by dividing the subsequent 7 days 7DMA of fatalities over the previous 7 days 7DMA of cases
* CFR line here is through Jan 19 & very accurate.
* CFR is projected through start of hosp peak now
6/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 7
* CFR @ still running at 0.46% at start of hospitalization peak
* Will slowly creep back but how far up is TBD
* <1% CFR is seasonal flu territory
* Omicron doing its Omicron thing which is gently blow up Mandate Theater
7/n
2/16 TX Severe Conclusion
We're about 1 week from seeing how Fatalities peaked during this wave. The way fatality reporting works, it takes 3+ weeks for most of the Death Certificates to arrive to the state for a particular day. But we will soon confirm our assumptions.
8/end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday
* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%
2/n
11/21 Airlines Page 3
* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically
* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
As of 5/6:
* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.
2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases
* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising
* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there
The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.
Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.
2/n
5/11 Airlines Page 3
Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.
The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.
* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
* 2 tweets on testing today
As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...
2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2
* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.
* A brief mid-week update on numbers through yesterday
* Pos% mini-bump fizzling out. Testing approaching record lows
* Hospitalizations continue setting record lows
* a 4 tweet thread today to go through the numbers
As of 3/28:
* Minibump up to 2.42%. Upcoming incomplete days show slowing growth
* Testing falls to 47K a day which approaches post-testing industrial complex lows of 43K in Jun 2021. Fewer people getting tested.
* Positive tests super flat at ~1150 per day
2/n
4/7 - Hospitalizations
* Covid Admissions 7DMA at new record low of 134/day, and still declining slightly
* Hospital Census 7DMA under 1000 for the first time ever
* Census % beds used by C19 at new low of 1.5%
* ICU Census approaches 200. Never saw below 400 before now