Thread by @CovertShores

Russia has amassed a sizable amphibious landing ship fleet near Odessa, Ukraine. Will they land?

Quick explainer thread on Russian Navy amphibious landings capabilities in Black Sea

Usual caveats

The large landing ships they have are not like the western model of a landing-ship-dock.

If the ships are to remain offshore, where they are safer, then the vehicles have to be able to swim ashore on their own

The swimming 'tanks' are less well armored and armed. Basically infantry vehicles.

Each ship can carry 10-12 depending on a lot of variables.

And these 'swimming landings' are very weather dependent. They don't like waves.

Also vert vulnerable to anti-tank missiles

If they want to land main battle tanks (T-72 / 80 /90), they need to come right up to the beach.

Same for trucks. And trucks with food and fuel might be every bit as important

The newest ship in the group, an Ivan Gren-class ship Pyotr Morgunov, looks more impressive. But it is actually more of the same.

Photo @YorukIsik

Amphibious landings would also likely be accompanied by substantial helicopter assaults and support operating from land, in North-west Crimea.

This cannot land very many vehicles though, except the HALOs and even they are limited

The landings would likely face sea mines, land mines on beaches and beach obstacles. Additionally, modern anti-tank missiles and drones are a very real concern for them.

I don't want to try to predict the landing beach, but a couple of observations...

Much of the coast is heavily touristic. It is broken into short sections of beach, roughly 100 meters wide. Quite short beach them often an urban environment.

This is a challenging place to land

East of Odessa, toward the attack from Ukraine, there are a lot of rivers breaking the coastline into segments. Pros and cons but risk of becoming contained by the terrain if you land here

To the east there are a lot of these narrow beaches with water behind them. I think that this would be a terrible place to land. Sitting ducks.

Any landing seems like suicide, but Russia might be committed.

Possible reasons (speculation!):

a) to aid the land thrust from Crimea towards Odessa
b) to take Odessa directly
c) land bridge to Transnistria, Moldova

Thanks for your time, hopefully helpful

Another aspect (forgot to mention...)

Russian forces are likely to land in daylight. This makes them more vulnerable

It is not clear which infantry will be used, and whether they are trained for amphibious assaults. Logistics drivers etc too. There were unverified reports of mutiny in Naval Infantry units about a landing, so might be other troops now

Russia also has a number of smaller landing ships, amphibious boats and assault boats.