A fascinating analysis by Hu Wei, a deputy director of the Public Policy Institute of the Chinese Government: Possible outcomes of #UkraineWar and China’s strategic choice. /thread
Putin is unlikely to meet his goals for the war (decapitating Zelensky quickly, making Ukraine client state, diverting attention from domestic problems) and Russia will be in a very difficult position. What he can’t achieve from war is harder to get from negotiation table…..
If the war escalates, it is likely to spill beyond Ukraine and even may draw in nuclear options as Putin warns. NATO will be involved and WWIII is possible. It will lead to a final showdown between the US and Russia. With NATO’s military superiority, Putin will lose….
If Putin uses all his resources to occupy Ukraine, it will be quagmire and a heavy economic burden. Fighting insurgencies and suffering under western sanctions, Russia’s economy will collapse in a few years
Anti-war forces and anti-Putin forces will likely overthrow Putin and Russia may even disintegrate further and no longer be a great power….
US will regain global leadership with a United western alliance, Germany will be integrated further into NATO defense framework, Europe will give up their plan of autonomous diplomacy and defense….
A new iron curtain will be set up, between democracies and dictatorships. A united West will attract other nations, America’s Indo-Pacific strategy will reinforced, Japan/Korea/Australia will follow it even closer. A world wide democratic united front will be formed….
China will be further isolated. With Putin’s downfall, US will focus on strategic competition with China, Europe will further decouple from China, Japan/Korea and others will be more hostile. China will face challenges/containment on all fronts: strategic, military, values..
China should not let its fate to be tied with Putin’s. It doesn’t have the resource to prop up Russia. There are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interest. It should discard Putin asap to protect its own interest right now, to choose the lesser of two evils…
China should drop the pretence of neutrality and start aligning with mainstream world opinion. The tight-rope-walking doesn’t sustain Russia but angers Ukraine and its supporters. Standing up for Ukraine’s sovereignty also helps China’s reunification claim with Taiwan.
Cutting ties with Putin will help improve China’s international standing and relations with the West, and avoid suffering secondary sanctions. China’s priority should be to find ways to reduce hostilities from the US, and get out of international isolation.
As a world power, China should do help stop a coming nuclear world war and maintain peace. Russia will be an international pariah for bringing nuclear disaster to the world and China should do everything it can do to deter Putin from going over the precipice /end thread
Link to the article here:
k.uscnpm.org/wap/article.as…
The article was posted on a website outside China. As some pointed out, repostings on various WeChat accounts have all been removed by censors, a hint where the official Chinese position is
I found another host of the article on WeChat. In sharing it I predicted it would be removed in two hours. I was right.
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