Thread by @tomiahonen

Convoy Thread 1/

Russian invasion of Ukraine involves a 40 mile (64km) long convoy of Russian military vehicles, that has been stalled for 2 weeks outside Kyiv the capital city of Ukraine. Some of the convoy is dispersing. I said convoy was a military mystery. Let's dig into it.

Convoy Thread 2/

From a military point of view, a convoy of military vehicles is a HIGH PRIORITY target, an 'easy' target. And prone to ambush. Ambushes are standard warfare against convoys. For example convoys of Soviet invasion to Afghanistan were regularly ambushed by Taliban

Convoy Thread 3/

The way to ambush a convoy is to stop it at a congested road like mountain or forest road. Destroy first vehicle & last vehicle. Prevent escape. Then destroy whole convoy

Finland vs Soviets in Winter War, Battle of Raate Road is classic case of how this is done

Convoy Thread 4/

It has seemed odd that this 40 mile (64km) long convoy has been a SITTING DUCK for over two WEEKS. Was stalled, but not destroyed. It seemed... bizarre, considering how badly Russia is doing in the war, and how well Ukraine is doing

Let's dig into it a bit more

Convoy Thread 5/

News from Friday now, 2 weeks into the war is that SOME of the units in the convoy are 'dispersing' but only into NEARBY WOODS or villages, for shelter. The convoy has not MOVED - it has not ADVANCED. It is just seeking more shelter. It is not 'attacking' anyone

Convoy Thread 6/

Let's do some analysis. Russian invasion of Ukraine is about 150,000 troops. A Russian division is about 10,000 troops (a bit more for rifle division, a bit less for tank or airborne division). So there are about 15 divisions of Russian soldiers in Ukraine today

Convoy Thread 7/

A Russian division has about 1,200 military vehicles. About 300 tanks, about 400 armored fighting vehicles, a bit over 200 mobile artillery & mortar, plus 100 misc other armored vehicles

And then 200 trucks to carry their fuel, ammunition, food etc, supplies

Convoy Thread 8/

A 40 mile (64km) convoy of military vehicles in tight marching order, is about 3,000 vehicles. But the reporting was, that this convoy was grouped with gaps, so say half that, maybe there are roughly about 1,500 military vehicles. Could be one division + extras

Convoy Thread 9/

But the reporting was that this was a convoy of TRUCKS with SOME armor to protect them. This is not a division on the move. No

This is a SUPPLY CONVOY, of military TRUCKS, not tanks. They carry fuel, ammunition, food for the soldiers on the front, & their tanks

Convoy Thread 10/

Now the numbers make for fascinating detail. A standard Russian division of 1,200 total vehicles, has 200 supply trucks. Those carry the fuel, ammunition & food for ONE DAY of combat operations (the second, day, as the tanks carry one day of ammunition inside)

Convoy Thread 11/

The 200 trucks need to travel from Russia to their division (every night, round trip) to get the next day's ammunition, fuel & food, or else that division cannot fight. It is a standard measure of trucks, and how much the resupply is needed DAILY

Convoy Thread 12/

So if this 40 mile (64km) convoy is about 1,500 vehicles, and they are mostly supply trucks, it could be about 1,400 supply trucks, with 100 armored vehicles 'riding shotgun' for protection. So this is total one day resupply for SEVEN DIVISIONS

Convoy Thread 13/

Remember where this convoy is stuck? Dozen miles outside of Kyiv. Seven divisions, 70,000 men, is about the right number of soldiers to lay siege to Kyiv to surround city of 3 million

Is consistent with 21,000 who sieged Grozny, city of 400,000 in Chechen war

Convoy Thread 14/

Also understand Russian war plan for Ukraine. They had attacks in North, East and South. Out of about 150,000 men, roughly half would attack from North (from Belarus) in a 'blitzkrieg' lightning strike, to quickly take Kyiv. So 7 divisions is about right

Convoy Thread 15/

We hear regular stories about ongoing fighting and modest advances by Russia in the SOUTH. There, they have ample supply & resupply. And we see catastrophic losses in the North, because Russian army is OUT OF RESUPPLY. All of their trucks are STUCK on this road

Convoy Thread 16/

Let me be VERY clear

A Russian division of 10,000 men carries only ONE day of ammunition, fuel & food INSIDE their vehicles, and a SECOND day is in those 200 trucks. Which HAVE to drive to Russia for the THIRD day of combat (& fourth, fifth, etc, every night)

Convoy Thread 17/

As long as these 1,400 resupply trucks are STUCK on the road - NO Russian Division in Northern Ukraine can continue to fight. They cannot move, they cannot shoot. The men are hungry, and forced to be stealing food. And many are surrendering

Convoy Thread 18/

Note these are large military resupply trucks like Ural 5323 to move 152mm artillery shells & 122mm mortar shells & typically carry about 10 tons, & usually pull a trailer for another 10 tons. Yes. A Russian division consumes about 4,000 TONS of supply per DAY

Convoy Thread 19/

With the total resupply force of 1,400 trucks stuck on ONE ROAD, the TOTAL Northern Russian army is IMMOBILIZED and out of ammo. This is why Ukraine is having continuous series of successes against the army in the North.

Convoy Thread 20/

Can they break out? No

Could Ukraine destroy them? Yes but that is not a PRIORITY. They are STUCK. Destroy the TANKS first (7 divisions have 1,500 tanks in Northern Ukraine, now out of fuel)

Can Russia bring new trucks? No as ROADS into Ukraine now defended

Convoy Thread 21/

This convoy was a MASSIVE MILITARY BLUNDER by Russia. Putin's Generals put all their eggs in one basket (in the North) and Ukraine can smash those eggs any day they want. Or wait until they surrender.

SMART TACTICS by Ukraine!

#SlavaUkraini #HeroiamSlava

Wow, I did not expect this?

WOW. You have spread this Thread about obscure Russian military convoy logists so widely, it has been read by 280,000 people on Twitter, in just 9 hours

Thank YOU for sharing this. I might have touched a nerve haha. THANK YOU

PS - SEQUEL

It is time for the Son of Thread. It is Back to the Thread part 2. It is Revenge of the Thread. It is T Dawg Thread part Deux

I wrote an aftermath, analysis Thread based on the excellent conversations in the comments:

PSPS Follow up

Today BBC has story where Ukrainian General Knyazev, in charge of Kyiv defense, gives briefing. In it, he says Ukraine had attacked the 40 mile convoy, forced it to disperse (to take cover) and convoy is no longer a threat

My short thread: