0/ All eyes seem to be on the BTC coil formation and what effects, if any, tomorrow’s FOMC will bring for crypto markets.
Stay prepared with this week’s crypto roundup 🧵👇
1/ After a brief pop to 42500 on lighter regulation from Biden administration, #BTC faded once again in line with risk sentiment forming a tight range between 37000 and 42500. This triangle formation look set to break soon, likely on FOMC tomorrow, question is which way?
2/ ETH/BTC cross rate seems to be carving out a bottom over last 2 months. Still nothing to get excited about until downtrend resistance broken around 0.07, but if we get a positive catalyst then this has major upside potential.
3/ Key takeaways from @glassnode this week: 1)Short term accumulation trends weaker, 2) Seeing more older (+6m) coins being spent, 3) STH holder cohort at all time lows but mainly in loss, risk of capitulation, 4) LTH adding to balances at 7.6x miner issuance rate, LT Bullish.
4/ Lots more on-chain and other analysis from @WClementeIII in his newsletter this week.
5/ Realised volatility drifts lower as implieds hold up with so many macro catalysts this week. Volatility risk premium back to around 10 vols. Expect front end implied to drift a bit after FOMC and into Friday DOV auctions.
6/ Term structure stays inverted despite low realised, as vega catches a bid. Essentially options not allowed to decay until after FOMC. Long term options had the most demand as lower decay structures preferred.
7/ Crypto options flows saw gamma buyers in 18Mar BTC and 25Mar ETH, Bullish directional trades in BTC Apr 42k/50k call spreads and bearish protection trades in Apr ETH 2200P and 2100P causing ETH to go relatively well bid.
8/ More detail on flows in @GenesisVol newsletter and @DeribitInsights by @PelionCap
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