Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 24: There has been little change to the overall strategic situation in the past 24 hrs. Russian forces remain static and appear to be transitioning to defensive operations, signaling a change in the character of the war. #UkraineRussianWar

2/ Today’s update will focus on the Kharkiv-Donbas area, providing a brief overview of the three critical areas of Kharkiv, the Donets River, and Mariupol. This is meant to set conditions for a more in-depth study of each AO as the war enters a protracted campaign.

3/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries exceeds 4.2 million, with over 1.85 million IDPs, mostly in western Ukraine. Humanitarian corridors continue to be interdicted, blocked, or attacked by Russian forces.

4/ Weather assessment. In Donbas region, visibility and wind speed are favorable for VKS and the UAF to execute aerospace operations. Temperatures generally will remain between 10/-5 C, with rain showers latter in the week making river crossings impracticable.

5/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments. There has been no change to the situation in eastern Ukraine over the past 24 hours. Russian forces still face difficulty in overcoming Ukrainian defenses on the Donets River, yet they are not an insurmountable obstacle. #Kharkiv #Mariupol

6/ Kharkiv Area. Russian forces do not possess the material capability, logistical reach, or tactical acumen to assault and seize Kharkiv. The only operationally sound course of action is to contain Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv area with aviation and UAV strikes.

7/ Kharkiv will remain in Ukrainian hands for the foreseeable future. It does not appear the Russians have the desire to conduct a Mariupol-style siege on the city, this is simply beyond the means of the Russian military to do at the present time.

8/ Donets River Line. Russian attacks along the Donets River have failed. Although the Russians can make small-scale tactical assaults and gain some ground, they do not have sufficient combat power to penetrate prepared Ukrainian defenses and push toward Sloviansk.

9/ Events on the Donets River Line will be the clearest indication of Russian success or failure in eastern Ukraine. Even if Mariupol falls Ukrainian forces are still in an advantageous position to maintain the Donbas defense, unless the Russians can penetrate south of the Donets

10/ Siege of Mariupol. The Russian & Separatist assault of Mariupol has been a mix of standard Russian practice toward seizing an urban area and siege tactics learned from operations in Syria targeting the civilian population to coerce surrender. #Mariupol

11/ The fall of Mariupol is an unfortunate inevitability, that is if the Ukrainian military does not mount a serious counteroffensive to relieve the city. The closest Ukrainian forces are 100km away and would require a serious effort with a considerable number of forces.

12/ Aerospace Assessment. In the Donbas, attack aviation may come to play a larger role to reduce VKS fixed-wing losses as well as allow for reallocation of fixed-wing sorties against higher value political targets.

13/ Tomorrow’s update will focus on the Kyiv Area of Operations. I will soon post an in-depth look at the first month of the war, analyzing how the Ukrainian response to the Russian invasion resulted in a strategic victory for Ukraine & why the Russian military has so far failed.

14/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

15/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.