Ukrainian Defense Intelligence @DI_Ukraine released a captured OpOrd by the 1st Guards Tank Army to the 96th Ind. Recon Brigade on February 23rd, 2022. I strongly recommend this file since it is PURE GOLD to understand Ru conceptions of the invasion.
gur.gov.ua/content/rosiia…
@DI_Ukraine First, this file reveals (one of)the front-level commands of the Russian invasion force, imeni "Group of Forces 'Center'". This Group of Forces Cmd apprently operated in Chernikiv-Konotop-Sumy and their vehicles are "O"-marked.
@DI_Ukraine Apparently the GFC was composed of the 41st Army (+90th GTD), 2nd Guards Army, 1st Guards Tank Army and (propably) the 6th Army. They decided that a total of 11 Ukr battalions from the 1st Tbr, 72nd mbr and 58th mpbr, and 2 MRL battalions are comfronting them.
The Russians determine that the main concerntration of the confronting Ukr forces was in the vicinity of Chernikiv, with the 1st tbr and a BTG from the 72nd mbr.
They decided that Nizhyn area was garrisoned by 3 motor infantry and 2 TDF battalions. Among them, 3 btns are defending the Grukhiv-Nizhyn axis. Russians've never taken either Nyzhyn or Grukhiv, by the way.
They expected a very weak defense in Sumy: one Ukr BTG from the 58th mbr and 2 TDF battalions.
They expected very few Ukr operational reserves; 2 battalions in the whole front (=Ukr Operational Command "North"). And there are some additonal 2,000 right-wing partizans operating in the AOR.
They carefully tallied the amount of NLAWs and Javelins in Ukrainian hands. However it seems that the number of these sophisticated ATGMs do not exceed 250.
To me this explains a lot. We can find out that the Russians are deploying exactly 33 BTGs in this AOR (if I'm counting it right), that is 3 times against their (assumed) adversary. This practice perfectly fits its operational doctrine.
The 1st GTA, the most powerful Russian formation of 15 BTGs and with some 300 tanks, was deployed at the (accessed) weakest point of the AOR - namely Sumy, against (presumedly) 1 Ukr regular btn and 2 TDF btns.
I think they must be expecting an easy breakthrough towards Sumy and then a quick thrust towards Kyiv, to cut off the bulk of Ukr forces north in Chernikiv, e.g. something like...
I still don't know what happened in late February in Sumy-Konotop area but it seems either Russian accessments were terribly wrong or the Ukrainians were so tough that they can hold a tank army with one mech battalion. Either way it ended up with the decimation of the RU 1st GTA.
A friend of mine drew this figure to represent Russian concepts and possible plans in NE Kiev-Chernikiv-Konotop-Sumy area in the first month of the war. For mandarin readers, feel free check his article at zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/499764250
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