Thread by @mikocryptonft

1/ Back in action! Sorry for being on a hiatus for so long. First, a personal update, I'm now fully dedicated to web3! Today was my last day on my 2-week notice. Second, we've ramped up @p2eanalytics, so expect some news, frequent feature additions and #p2e content!

2/ With that said, let's kick off with an update on @playcrabada's economy!

We all know that $TUS inflation has increased. Here's some numbers:

Daily Mint: 38.7MM (1.8% per day)
Daily Burn: 20.7MM (-1.0% per day)
Net Addition: 18.0MM (0.8% per day)

3/ In the above chart, you'll see that inflation has increased more than breeding. What's interesting is that the daily issuance % has been steady relative to historical trends, so the core issue is lower breeding (I know, obvious). The blue line (burn) has trended up (less burn)

4/ Breeding needs to be incentivized through profits. In the past few months, the price of crabs and the number of crabs sold has stalled. This implies lower profits for breeders who have been breeding more crabs.

5/ Breeders keep breeding more, however, eggs as % of total population has declined from 9.0% in early February to 6.7% in early May. So, the pace of population growth is decelerating.

6/ The divergence between # of crabs sold being flat vs. growth in egg count means that breeders aren't able to liquidate as much inventory (impacting working capital) or there's significant off market sales going on. Given $TUS burns has been flat, I'm assuming it's the former.

7/ The key metric is player growth. There are 13,937 $TUS holders growing 0.8%/day since 4/18, a bit slower than before. Crab population is growing at 1.4%/day since 4/18, a bit slower than before, but much higher than TUS holders. Crab/holder = 8.0, highest ever.

8/ The economy is clearly in a deep recession. The high gas prices coupled with the lower TUS prices, has made generating rewards tough. The upside catalyst that we've all been waiting for is the @swimmer_network and the Battle Game.

9/ The Swimmer Network will be much faster and will utilize $TUS as the gas token. Keep in mind that Crabada will not be the only game on the subnet, there will be many more that will utilize $TUS as the gas token. So expect $TUS burn to increase, helping solve inflation issues.

10/ The Battle Game will enable discipleships ("scholarships"), meaning you can delegate your crabs to other players in exchange for splitting rewards. This can help solve the player growth problem.

11/ Tavern Guide: ROI has collapsed. The cheapest way to play the game is to buy 1 crab and rent it out. If 1 crab is expensive for you, check out @Craba_DAO for cheap entry

12/ Mining w/ MR Guide: The best choice are combinations that include primes for the 10% bonus. MR is an estimate and not all team combinations are included. Analysis doesn't include gas fees which impact profits. Check out @0xminersfren to determine if you should reinforce.

13/ Mining w/ no MR Guide: If you don't have time to reinforce, mine to lose. This generates more rewards than the Tavern assuming you can mine at least 5 time a day. Best bet is combo of cheap crabs + none-pure prime for the 10% bonus. Gas fees might make this attractive.

14/ Breeding Guide: This uses the ABC loop method. ABCD is more optimal. I'm not factoring in mining/looting which improves ROI. Best bet are primes.

15/ Breeding Guide: ABCD method results in lower ROI days for the initial investment. ABCD method assumes you buy two sets of parents to start off with.

16/ Looting Guide: Does not factor in gas fees! Not all combinations are included here. Both options below have the same ROI. I assumed 2 mines and 8 loots given the point system.

17/ Good accounts to follow for Crabada: @0xminersfren (mining profitability bot), @deepinthesesh (reports), @KingSkyWing (reports), @Gojo_Crypto (data), @rogeravax (alpha), @_acap_acap (alpha), @TradingAloha (alpha), @_crabradio (🎙️), @TheCryptoGemini (alpha and memes)