Thread by @4xForecaster

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futures):
- ST: Model eyes high-probability reversal at 3999.50/3925.50 range
- MT: Bullish pending reversal sequence validation; if true, Model eyes narrow 5558.25/5559.50 target range
- LT: Bearish

#SP500

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futures):

Target HIT

#SP500 $SPY

$ES (S&P 500 e-Mini Futs):

- ST: Fell, hit 3999.50/3925.50 target range as forecast; RSI in reversal range; Model is bullish, nears reversal
- MT: Bullish; unchanged target at 5558.25/5559.50
- LT: Bearish

$ES:

ST/MT: unchanged forecast (thread)

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futures):

- ST: high-probability reversal at 3896.75/3882.50 target range; 3882.50 favored; invalidated if breaks below wave-C⃝ = 3807.50

#SP500 $SPY #ES1

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futures):

Note: wide swings, esp. those shaping into geometries are hard to pin. Their core symmetry = future R/S level:

- ST: significant swings completing into terminal geometry (A-B-C-D-E) at wave-C⃝ = 3737.25/3664.50
- MT: bullish

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futures):

Target HIT (in its entirety)
- No change in MT forecast (see thread; charts for context)

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futures):

Timing: tentatively on 22 JUN ‘22

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futures):

Still moving as forecast (see thread above)

- ST: bullish; 22 JUN timing carved support at 3735.00 low (daily chart)
- MT: bullish; still eyeing 5558.25/5559.50 bearish reversal target
- ST: bearish

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futures):

- ST: bullish; still moving as forecast (see thread)
- MT: bullish; interim resistance circa 4600.00; still eyeing 5558.25/5559.50 bearish reversal target
- ST: bearish

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futures):

- ST: wave-(4) correction likely over; for overall bullish impulse to remain valid, it must remain > 3950.00
- MT: bullish; interim resistance circa 4600.00; still eyeing 5558.25/5559.50 bearish reversal target
- LT: bearish

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futures):

- ST: prior impulse invalidated; for current EW pattern (expanding leading diagonal: 5-3-5-3-5) to survive, wave-(4) must end at/near 3838.00 (circa 08-12 SEP per tentative timing)
- MT: bullish
- LT: bearish

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futures):

- ST: rallying at tentative time-target window of 08 SEP/12 SEP as forecast
- MT: bullish
- LT: bearish

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futures):

* * * NEW Targets * * *

- ST: rallying at tentative time-target 08-12 SEP as forecast; watching these R/S targets
4491.25-R (21 SEP ‘22?)
3838.0-S
5489.50-R
4942.50-S
5835.25 (NEW price-target)
- MT: bullish
- LT: bearish

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futs):

- ST: falling towards 3838.00 target as forecast; time-target saw rallies on weaker volume; now eyeing strength circa 21 SEP ‘22 as possible confluence of price-target and time-target levels.
- MT: bullish
- LT: bearish

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY $ES_F

Re: $ES

RT from @CyclesFan … similar time-target (see thread), 21 SEP ‘22

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futs):

- ST: RISK of lower low from current vicinity, eyeing interim and imminent bearish reversal at the 4027.50/4134.00 target range; eyeing bullish reversal target at 3402.25
- MT: bullish
- LT: bearish

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY $ES_F

$ES:

PERSPECTIVE
- RT from @ChandlerTrading:

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futs):

- ST: still reversing as forecast from its bearish reversal target range at 4027.50/4134.00 target range; watching for interim support at 3842.00/3833.75; unchanged RISK of decline to 3402.25
- MT: bullish
- LT: bearish

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY $ES_F

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futs):

Tech-Note:

1. A rally from forecast target range at 3842.00/3833.75 would meet significant resistance at prior bearish reversal range, strongest at 4027.50

2. Invalidation of current lower-low thesis would require breach > this week’s high

3. …

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futs):

(…)

3. Decline from 4027.50 would establish a slightly lower target, effectively defining a bullish reversal target range at 3402.25/3388.50

D.

Re: $ES and The Santa Clause Rally effects

Attaching my review of SCR, it’s historical timing and performance, and how it may apply to the current $ES pricing:

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futs):

Tech-Note:

For a rally to occur right away (i.e.: a Santa Claus Rally, plus setting aside historical facts that it could occur until a week from now and it would require beating the 7.3% record gain), a 4134.00 ceiling …

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY $ES_F

$ES

Tech-Note:

… constitute the type of resistance that may best be overcome by the force compression assimilated in inter-collapsing, strength-gathering geometries, such as Ending Diagonal.

Just a thought.

D.

$ES:

PERSPECTIVE:

Here is a good follow, giving winning trades; here offering a similar perspective on a lingering bear strength in $SPY:
- RT from @Mr_Derivatives:

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futs):

Target HIT

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY $ES_F

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futs):

- ST: price reacted to bullish target range at 3842.00/3833.75 as forecast; watching for high-prob RISK of reversal from 4030.00 towards 3402.25/3388.50 bullish reversal target range as shown
- MT: bullish
- LT: bearish

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY $ES_F

$ES:

Seeing 👁️ to 👁️ here, using different methods.

Perspective
- RT from @ChandlerTrading (also one I recommend following if interested in TA education):

$ES (S&P-500 e-Mini Futs):

- ST: price remains above 3842.00/3833.75, still eyeing for high-prob RISK of reversal from 4030.00 to 3402.25/3388.50; watching for reversal circa 10 JAN ‘23
- MT: bullish
- LT: bearish

#SP500 #ES1 #SPX #SPY $ES_F

$ES:

- ST: still bearish with little more than sideways action over the week. Window for a SCR closed, adding credence for a bearish continuation thesis. Watching for this setup favoring further decline to 3402.25/3388.50. Last two charts are tentative, yet favored counts.

$SPX

$ES:

- ST: unchanged bearish bias per model; technically, continuation geometries support bearish outlook as well; watching for 3788.50 to trigger a still favored decline to 3402.25/3388.50.

Invalidated IFF #ES > point-A of triangle.

$SPX

$ES:

- ST: still bearish, despite interim consolidation; recent move appears impulsive (1-2-3-4-5) to the downside, suggesting possible beginning of wave-C⃝.

In any case and any interim configuration, predictive model remains bound towards target range below.

$SPX

$ES:

Similar views, different methodology.

Perspective
- RT from @ChandlerTrading

$SPX

$ES:

- ST: still bearish; current level is highest reversal from interim bullish reversal at 3842.00/3833.75 (see thread), before reaching invalidation > 4180.00
- MT: bullish, still eyeing reversal at 3402.25/3388.50; highest reversibility at 3191.25

#ES $SPX #SP500

$ES

Tech-Note:

- ST: Model remains bearish. Unrelated to the predictive model, note the development of a NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE in RSI (i.e.: RSI makes a higher high relative to price peaks, whereas price makes a lower-high.

(see attached DAILY chart)

(…)

#ES $SPX #SP500

(…) As a point of illustration - and perhaps of education to those who aimlessly look for bearish divergences - here is the same chart but WEEKLY frames, wherein a same (-) Div. occurred recently, and appears to prepare once more.

(…)

(…) it would take price breaking above and closing above (BACA) its recent high at 4180.00 to erase the (-) Div in the DAILY chart.

I recently tried to explain this concept to a trader convinced that fundamental hype would support price (see attached), when it ended up falling.

Overall, know your divergences. Most rookies will use RSI in ways instructed by conventional institutions.

Notions such as over/under-bought or bearish/bullish divergences are NOT helping anyone. If anything, they do NOT signal anything of imminent relevance.

Trust, but verify!

Tech-Note Addendum:

Re: (-)Div.:

Here is another illustration from $DNN, where a (-) Div would still work (i.e.: RSI highs vs lower price spikes), even in the even that a price carves a perfect double-top (here at 1.52).

Until price carved a higher-high at 1.53, (-)Div stands.

(…) Remember, you’re only dealing with probabilities (and don’t think numbers, just LOW/MOD/HIGH probability of an event occurring.

Bullish/bearish divergences- for reasons I have illustrated in the linked thread above - are LOW probability of an imminent directional event.

…

(…) In contrast, POSITIVE or NEGATIVE Divergences are rarer events with greater specificity (i.e.: “they do what they say they’ll do”), while being rare events (i.e. low sensitivity), whereas bearish/bullish divergences are very sensitive (“ring a lot”), but have a very low (…)

(…) specificity (i.e.: “they talk a lot about doing it, but don’t or not as immediately”).

Review the linked thread for illustrations, and rehearse these in your own (Google them under my alias too; been talking about these for a long while).

Cheers,

David