Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SPX

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1/atm straddles came down significantly from the open as nothing has rly happened in $spy #SPX since open but premium destruction. The play was to short overnight but this account can't do that. Expect more volatility as $vix expiration this week..
2/ $vix showing no real signs of panic, fear, or backwardation (bullish). The curve is in contango and suggests this 3-day down move has been a healthy shakeout. We keep a long-bias here but it has been smart to not be aggressive as OpEx just passed and VIXperation lies ahead
3/ We still seek to protect the last 3 weeks of profit. Given the significance of overnight moves recently, my hunch tells me this is mostly dealer-driven. For this same reason, it's a gamble to hold overnight risk without any ability to hedge in futures so we are wary of that.
Read 6 tweets
How someone made millions πŸ’° In the SPX risk free today(arb). (Thread) ⬇️ Image
At a glance, that order doesn't seem special at all. However once you look at the screenshot more closely, you will see what is so special/great about that order. (2)
You can see 8500 orders ar each leg(4625 calls/put) at different tenors 2 transacted below bid, one almost at ask, one above ask. You might be asking what's special?
(3)
Read 10 tweets
#ES #VIX #UVXY #SPX #SPY #VXX Basics of long IVOL scalping/gamma trading.
So you might have heard of a straddle(call + put, same strike.) You have probably heard of it being a pure vol play. (1)
But what does that exactly mean, you might say it means an IV play. This is correct to a certain extent, however straddles aren't just a bet on IV. They are both a bet on IV and RV? You might be asking what Is RV? (2)
RV Is simply just the volatility that has ACTUALLY occurred. Where IV is what the marketplace believes RV to be In future. You might ask how does this play a part in a straddles PNL. As we know IV has the most weight In the pricing of an option(<atm) (3)
Read 10 tweets
The imminent default of #Evergrande and the hawkish tilt of #Fed is sparking a global risk off event. This has similarities to all 3 of the last major crashes; 97 (LTCM - leverage), 2000 (tech - overvaluation), and 2008 (real estate - highly rated assets defaulting) #QQQ 1/9
97 started with the currency crisis of Thailand, a small economically unimportant country but set off a chain of currency crisis and defaults in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Argentina & Russia. Culminating in the collapse of the massively over-leveraged LTCM
#QQQ #BTC #SPY 2/9
It started small and took significant time (1 yr) to fully play out, feeding on the most overexposed and over leveraged investors. I expect it to play out much faster this time as we are starting with the 2nd largest economy, and the debt levels are significantly higher
#ETH 3/9
Read 13 tweets
1/ Analyzing today's markets:

Very interesting Power Trades: 500 contracts traded within 1000ms highlighted in yellow boxes. Today's volume LHS, 1hr volume RHS.

Note: #SPX dip is just a shake-out, really difficult day for longs. Image
2/ Profile today's market we see the price is quite sticky to the POC if migrating up to 4684.25; early buying was quick with quite rapid selling at 10am until the headfake

Note the volume at 4707, a lot of trapped buyers up there now, and that level is important Image
3/ For today's session, I think we established a trend around 12AM and then another at 4AM, which is when I started putting on my longs on #NQ_F

The rise was scary, but worth it.

Here's how #ES_F traded today: Image
Read 3 tweets
Sweet, my alert went off and I bought #NQ_F at 16304

The difference between a stop-loss and alert: I look at the chart then decide what to do

In this case, I *bought*. I'll alwaus think stop losses are silly. It'd take multiple nights of limit-down to make me stop out.
Here’s how I do it, very simple, using a retail account! Set an alert where you’d like to make a decision, for me it was 16308 on $QQQ, already up 100 ticks Image
And here's how it went, wayyyy oversold as usual: Image
Read 6 tweets
1/Thanks to @steve_sedgwick and @cnbcKaren for having me on @CNBC #SquawkBox this morning.

We talked about - what else? - #inflation and #centralbanks and whether the #Fed & peers are 'making an historic mistake', in Steve's words.

A few charts & comments for background:-
2/It's trite to say the jump in price indices is *all* attributable to a 'basis effect' when they've accelerated so much THIS year.
3/ #JeromePowell and his merry band may wish to believe that the rise is a mere blip, but all too many businessmen & women (i.e., the people who *really* matter) seem to believe the converse is the case.
Read 10 tweets
Great conversation with @MerrillLynch CIO Chris Hyzy, as part of their #MerrillPerspectives event. Some of the topics we discuss follow and the full conversation can be accessed here: ml.com/2021-midyear-e…
On the #market lessons stemming from the pandemic, I suggested that- stepping back- while a lot has been thrown at the #economy and markets over the past 30 years, in every case the #policy response has been critical to evaluate in judging the ultimate impact: policy matters!
That said, we think there is an overestimation of the importance of exceedingly low #policy rate levels to the recovery but maintaining the stability and #liquidity of the financing #markets is critical, particularly at the top end of the capital stack.
Read 10 tweets
Thanks to @steve_sedgwick & @cnbcKaren for having me on #CNBC #SquawkBox this AM.

What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!

I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
1/n
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE
Are people in denial or is the #centralbank money flood just drowning all the signals?
2/n
#inflation
#Commodities, #freight, #carbon - and a whole lot besides - sure do cost a lot more, these days.
3/n
Read 14 tweets
Avg holding period is below 1 year and most of returns come from price action so one could argue that capital gain tax increase 20->50% makes stocks 60% more expensive.

Add corp tax increase that'll eat chunk of earnings and multiply all by already highest valuations ever.
#SPX
Don't know if historically lower/negative GDP growth in periods with higher capital gains tax is coincidence or not, but basic logic would agree that there is less incentive to invest with higher taxes.
According to this chart one could notice that realized gains (as % GDP) tend to rise before an increase and after a decrease in max tax rate on LT gains.
Read 4 tweets
@hussmanjp Majority (according to BofA) thinks we are in a late stage bull or in a bubble. So, guess they are aware. The problem is there's no timing tool for this kind of greedy psychology trying to sqeeze every possible index point till the top no matter the exponentially increasing risk.
@hussmanjp It seems the probability of a top beeing in or beeing away for another 3 months is pretty much the same.

Actually, if we consider today's SPAC mania to be comparable to '00s tech mania, and compare the movement of SPAC index to NDX, topping could take another 3 months or so...
@hussmanjp Like #NDX topped earlier in 00 than the #SPX, #SPACs could top earlier than $NDX today, with 2nd leg in SPACS being the real deal on major indices.
Recent absorption of institutional selling by retail and yesterday's strong relative up volume make me consider adjusting timing
Read 3 tweets
While our February 18th monthly client call argument for rising #RealRates appeared prescient, we were surprised by the magnitude of last week’s #move and would expect a more benign evolution toward #equilibrium going forward.
Taking a stab at periodizing the past year: 1) in Feb/Mar 2020 the Covid crisis was priced into #markets, real #rates spiked higher, #inflation breakevens collapsed and #investors scrambled to raise #cash as the #SPX experienced its fastest 30% drawdown in history.
Then, 2) from Apr through Oct 2020 we witnessed the #market impact of monumental #monetary and #fiscal policy responses to the #crisis, as policymakers successfully sought to force #real rates down and restore #inflation expectations.
Read 10 tweets
#stockmarket WE update - finally saw some nastiness on Fri w/ some fairly big moves in individual stks. could this be the start of something bigger? as discussed in last WE posts, we are set up for it but will it happen? #SPX held the 20day again. 3720/3660 next lvls to watch...
#stockmarket Demark propulsion up tgt still active w/ 3907 tgt but stuck on 10 count for the seq 13 sell since Jan 8th. still could post this wk as early as weds....
#StockMarket #nasdaq did record a Demark 13 sell & came w/in 20 points of the Propulsion up tgt (something I wrote about last WE as a possible sell trigger). the 13 sell that printed on 1/14 is now the swing high. currently on day 2 of a price flip...
Read 19 tweets
#StockMarket WE update. #SPX as expected we rallied to my first target lvl above 3800, derived from a measured move off the box breakout. Some consolidation is likely here or even a retracement. RSI poked above 70 for the first time since Aug...
#stockmarket New Seq Demark 13 sell possibly this wk (earliest weds). Propulsion up tgt of 3907 still in view. maybe we hit the tgt while posting the new 13 sell? Reminder the propulsion lvls can act as magnets but also exhaustion lvls. Last 2 13 sells saw short +2% drawdowns...
#stockmarket weekly #SPX could post a Demark combo 13 sell this wk and a sequential 13 sell next wk....
Read 16 tweets
#StockMarket WE update. Tough to make much sense out of the last 2 wks given all the rebalancing. Still think Jan is set up for some giveback. #SPX cluster of Demark 13 sells, new combo 13 sell, w/ risk lvl @ 3788. Prop up still active w/ 3907 tgt. maybe quick run to 3900 first?
#StockMarket As I've said repeatedly, tough to be overly bearish above 3630ish & a close below the 20day has been elusive. A close below might shake things up but for now new box B/O w/ measured move to 3800+...
#StockMarket Demark Trendfactor is fantastic for understanding lvls in the indexes that matter. We are currently approaching the 3x lvl @ 3773, nxt lvl up is 3863 & then 3953....
Read 22 tweets
#stockmarket WE update - Holiday short version. $SPY shows 2 broken rising wedges but minimal damage. Nasty pierce of the 20day & support last wk but strong close & no follow thru. Resiliency matters & for now bulls in control. Currently 3 distribution days in Dec...
#stockmarket A close below $364ish would shake things up a bit I suspect but elusive at this point. $SPY weekly looks quite healthy to me....
#stockmarket #SPX recent Demark 13 seq sell did mark the recent swing high, now on day 3 of buy set up. Remember, 13's can signal pot'l trend change or sometimes just stall the trend - for now its stalled. Do we continue lower to complete the 9 buy or price flip back up & resume?
Read 13 tweets
#stockmarket WE update. Last WE I mentioned I was cautiously optimistic but could see some weakness in 2H of the wk as Demark could post a Seq 13 sell on the #SPX. Friday was weak but somewhat contained. I also mentioned that Propulsion up was still active w/ 3907 tgt....
#stockmarket Momentum tgts signify trend continuation but also could represent exhaustion points. The Russell also w/ new Demark 13 sells on the weekly chart to go w/ a new round of daily sell signals....
#stockmarket #NASDAQ could post a new combo 13 sell this wk (pot'l weds) & a seq 13 sell next wk (pot'l Tues), but much like the #SPX, has a propulsion up tgt in play of 13240....
Read 16 tweets
#stockmarket WE update. Last wk I mentioned to be careful adding new money to the mkt, which was the correct call as we did see weakness. I mentioned watching the $DXY for signals as it did move off the lows. But 20day save on Fri above key lvls for #SPX is bullish for now....
#stockmarket As I've mentioned in previous updates, $ spikes are equity bearish & last wk we did see #DXY move off the lows. Whether this a minor bounce or bigger countertrend move is yet TBD. $DXY bounce from OS RSI now above 14day SMA & day 3 of price flip; needs to be watched.
#stockmarket I also discussed in last WE update that key global mkts were also flashing Demark exhaustion signals & something that could hurt US stock performance - see 5 day performance of major indices....
Read 15 tweets
#stockmarket WE update. crazy bullish euphoria is all that comes to mind. But that doesn't mean it has to end. I think we are stretched which can be resolved by time or price. >3645 tough to be overly bearish, but putting new money to work up here seems foolish....
#stockmarket #SPX correlation to USD has been strong & previous spikes this yr have seen equity dislocation. This is the most important thing to watch IMO given how lopsided this trade has become. Demark has a 13 Seq/Combo & 9 buy in place/ w/ prop down tgt of 90.15 for $DXY...
#stockmarket the $DXY has closed below the lower bound 4x since the GFC ('08 it happened many times, Jan '18, this yr in July/Aug, Nov/Dec). As illustrated this usu is short lived. why would it be different this time? ...
Read 23 tweets
1/ Let us share some fundamentals on #gold price, given latest price action has been testing nerves of bulls after 50% increase post 2018.

Thread @Mintgecko @TheLastDegree @GMoneyResearch @AdamMancini4 Image
2/ View gold as a currency Image
3/ Like other currencies, #gold prices are volatile despite safe heaven backdrop... Image
Read 20 tweets
#stockmarket Last WE update I discussed dialing back on equities & despite + vaccine news the #SPX was down .77% for the wk. Risk still remains to the downside IMO, although can't be too bearish until we break the ranges. $SPY flag or lower high? ...
#stockmarket marked white circles (above) are showing heavy volume distribution days since Sept is not bullish. But for now the supply is getting absorbed. The Demark chart shows Day 2 of a price flip down following the completed 9-13-9 sell, and closed <5day EMA....
#stockmarket On the flip side, if $SPY can take out this flag to the upside, Demark propulsion up is active w/ a $390 tgt. If that happens, I would first measure any move w/ trend factor projections (367.44, 376.40, 385,37 - see red boxes)...
Read 16 tweets
#StockMarket WE update. crazy wk. Caught many offsides who were overloaded in tech. I suspect mkt leadership has shifted although it won't be linear. I am growing cautious & increasing hedges. As posted re #SPX last wk, Demark rare 9-13-9 sell printed w/ slo sto neg divergence...
#StockMarket #SPX here is another rarity & one for the bears, Demark 9-13-9 sell is also printing on the yearly chart, which has taken 40+ years to form. Not sure how to trade this but interesting nonetheless...
#stockmarket equally fascinating is that the #nasdaq is doing the same w/ a Demark 9-13-9 sell on the yearly. This in combination w/ the Demark combo & seq 13 sell on the weekly (combo printed last wk). Last time combo 13 sell printed here was the wk of Feb 20th. yikes!..
Read 21 tweets
#stockmarket WE update. My call last WE to buy in the 2H of the wk missed by 2 days. +7% wk & futures up again seems to be getting overheated. Clearly we have a break up of this DTL on #SPX futures, & now on Day 5 of 9 Demark sell set up. Trendfactor up lvls: 1x=3583, 1.5x=3673..
#stockmarket #SPX $SPY also will post Day 5 of 9 sell set up, which would come on Friday if the count is satisfied. Demark Trrendfactor up lvls to be mindful of: 1x up = 354.90, 1.5x=358.47
#stockmarket I posted this chart of the Smart Money Index last wk, as a reason to be concerned as it signaled the Oct peak. Still hovering near the lows but cluster of Demark 13 buys w/ 9 buy set up as well. Hopefully this turns up soon....
Read 14 tweets

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