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#StockMarket I hope you all had a great WE. Some quick mkt thoughts as head into a new wk. Last WE I suggested a break of 50day/wk low could yield #SPX 3280ish, we reached 3292. RSI divergence was erased; next Demark Trend Factor levels: 3262 & 3200 (coincides w/ 3180 area).... ImageImage
#StockMarket #SPX I also mentioned the pot'l for a midwk turnaround on Demark exhaustion signals but early wk strength negated the count & has now started over. the Naz also erased its count & now has a Demark propulsion down tgt of 10470. still looks very vulnerable.... ImageImageImage
#StockMarket #SPX did close below the important 10wk for the first time while the Naz closed below for the 2nd wk in a row = not bullish.... ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Analysis: #SNP $SPX

Case 448 #S&P 500 Index

Special request: @CarlosSarPrada

DISCLAIMER: The analysis is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as an invitation to trade.

#SPX 1/4
Chart 1
Monthly Chart: A new all time high was just recorded and the target is the Jan. 2018 #trendline #resistance at 3537.43 but a close/hold above 3625.00 is required to target 4039.89. The main .....

SPX 2/4
..... objective is 4137-4153 and longer term 4522/28. Good support seen 2954- 2851 and major #support is at 2617.37- 2452.61.

SPX 3/4
Read 5 tweets
(1/THREAD) Sentiment: One might think, with the #market erasing all its losses, that sentiment would have gotten somewhat lopsided, but it hasn’t. Here, flows into equity funds & ETFs & money market funds. #equities #SPX
2/ The rush into #cash has barely been undone, while #investors aren’t exactly rushing into #equities. While cash sitting in money market funds has dropped slightly from nearly $5 trillion to about $4.55 trillion, it has fallen from 17% to 13% as a percent of equity market cap.
3/ Looking at the percent of equity market capitalization is probably a better way to slice the data as a proxy for sentiment and it has matched almost perfectly the spread on high-yield corporate #bonds. The rest of the sentiment picture is mixed too.
Read 8 tweets
Valuation: It’s a contested issue in the market. Are stocks as divorced from fundamentals as many say? This chart shows that’s a fair point. While the #SPX is up 50% from the low, the NTM P/E multiple has almost doubled. Image
But, in my view, the bearish P/E argument misses something important: At bottoms, price usually leads #earnings. So there are going to be periods where price goes up while earnings still go down which, mathematically, leads to a rising P/E ratio.
The same thing happened in 2009 after the GFC bottom. Look: an analog of the inflation-adjusted #SP500 index now & back then. Bottom panel: Earnings as measured from the price low—not the earnings low. Back in ’09, EPS fell another 5% after the #SPX bottomed on March 9. Image
Read 12 tweets
One noteworthy aspect of the #COVID19 market has been the success with which the #Fed & other #centralbanks have been able to stem the “Covid Crash” and then help control the recovery. The current backdrop reminds me a bit of the 1942-1946 #QE cycle. Let’s take a look. (THREAD)
1/ After the Great Depression, the government went into high gear during WWII and, in the process, ran up huge government debt. Federal debt as a percent of #GDP jumped to 116% from 39% during the 1st half of the 1940s.
2/ Not only did the Fed monetize the debt by increasing its balance sheet 10-fold, it repressed the entire #yieldcurve by capping short rates at 3/8% & long rates at about 2.5%. #Inflation ran up but, with the #Fed repressing rates at low levels, real rates went negative.
Read 24 tweets
Another #tech bubble? There’s a lot of talk about the FANG mega-cap #growth companies leading the market, just like 2000. The #tech companies’ narrow leadership of the #SPX is a big reason perma-bears are hating on the #market. Right or wrong? Let’s take a closer look. (THREAD)
1/ In 1999 I did a deep dive on the top darling stocks to compare the lopsided leadership of the late 1990s to the early to mid-1970s. Earlier, during the 1960s, the cyclical #bullmarket from Oct. 1966 to Nov. 1968 produced a huge bubble in retail speculation.
2/ #Tech & space companies were big favorites. Then came the #recession of 1970 & a painful bear market that wiped out speculators. During that decline & recovery, institutional investors dominated the #stockmarket & were buying tried-and-true stocks with bulletproof #earnings.
Read 18 tweets
#StockMarket officially back from Vaca & back in the saddle. The call last week to fade $QQQ was the correct one. -5.7% peak to trough, & the argument for rotation pot'l also occurred. That said the mkt is stubbornly resilient and tough to be too bearish, yet i remain cautious:
#StockMarket $QQQ weekly ugly candle on elevated volume and last time we saw that happen, more weakness ensued. RSI continues to neg diverge & now threatening to break the RSI trend line. MACD neg divergence as well w/ recent lower high and neg cross again....
#stockmarket #SPX looks much better and arguably looks and feels like wants to break out. meaningful supply zone ahead to be aware of w/ a break higher of last wk high, w/ new tgts 3257 and Covid gap resistance of 3360. pot'l for SPX +MACD monthly cross soon = bullish MT....
Read 17 tweets
(THREAD) 1/ Is the market’s current valuation really as bad the Shiller CAPE suggests? In my view, the answer is no. Here’s why.
2/ This shows the Shiller CAPE, or the #SP500 price index, divided by the 10-yr avg for #earnings per share. At 27.0x, the #market is at the 92nd percentile of all history, with only the 1929 peak and the dot com bubble producing a higher valuation. Not good company.
3/ But, like a blunt instrument used for precision surgery, the CAPE falls short. It doesn’t take into account interest rates, the equity risk premium or the percentage of #earnings that are being distributed back to shareholders via dividends & share buybacks.
Read 15 tweets
(THREAD) Could the huge rally since March 23 be just a bear market rally? And how would we know? Let’s take a look at history—and some charts. #SP500 #SPX #stockmarket #investing
1/ Here we see that price (#SP500) and it confirms my view that, with the exception of 1929 and 1937, the power of the current rally strongly suggests that a new #bullmarket is underway.
2/ This chart shows the retracement of the preceding decline. The current retracement far exceeds the others, but I think that’s probably just a byproduct of the fact that we have only declined 35% so far, whereas some of the prior bear markets produced declines of 50%-90%. #SPX
Read 12 tweets
JF's Sunday Morning Charts - just few charts today... (see full thread inside) Happy Father's Day to All!!

#SPX Weekly - so far the PRZ for Leg C has held... a break <$2934 is first sign C may be done and Leg D starting.. and confirms on a break < $2792.
#GC_F Daily - Gold finally made a move on Friday and may reach Supply on a break > $1760.. setting up a possible short. However, a break < $1727 likely sends it back down to Demand.
$DXY Daily - looking poised for higher. A break >$98 and it's off to the races..
Read 8 tweets
🌎 As I repeated (bit.ly/2Vzbui8; bit.ly/2Ks0P2g; bit.ly/3awqL7l; bit.ly/3eMEWsn), economists have been too optimistic about global GDP prospects. Image
🇺🇸 #SPX | Analysts have been also too optimistic concerning earnings expectations (bit.ly/3bAcAj1).

🇺🇸 #SPX | Since the beginning of March, the S&P 500 Index’s 12-month forward earnings per share estimate has slumped 19% and is bound to deteriorate further as business and economic activity have slowed amid the coronavirus outbreak - Bloomberg Image
Read 8 tweets
52 trading weeks a year:

If you make average
25 ES pts=$1250 /week=$65k
30 ES pts=$1500 /week=$78k
35 ES pts=$1750 /week=91k
40 ES pts=$2000 /week=104k

You do the math in this thread for weekly real-time trades
shared since Feb12
+many before

#es_f #options #futures
3 days and well exceeded plan.
Each option play 5-7 ES point so translated to total equivalent ES points is 50-60 ES point = $2500-$3000.

#es_f #options #futures
Only shared one day this week while on break and wel exceeded plan.

#es_f #options #futures
Read 41 tweets
$NFLX Esto es lo que veo desde el inicio de la corrida Bull (previo a este tuvo una baja del 70% aprox).

$SPX #SPX $NASDAQ #NASDAQ
$NFLX (parte alcista).
Inicia con gran verticalidad (linea de soporte) hasta q la rompe y sigue con canal alcista q se encuentra menos inclinado indicandome que va con menos fuerza.
Luego en los ultimos meses lo rompe y ahora lo esta queriendo retomar.

$SPX #SPX $NASDAQ #NASDAQ
$NFLX (parte lateral).
Ya en el top del canal vemos una lateralidad, llegando hasta a romper el canal, lo que indica agotamiento de los bulls.
Esta formando un triple techo, y o casualidad, los ultimos 2 candles son practicamente dojis muy poco alcistas

$SPX #SPX $NASDAQ #NASDAQ
Read 7 tweets
#Momentum leads #Value over the past 30 days, too.
In fact, #Momentum leads #Value on the downside as well, by not drawing down as much. I said last week momentum was positioned defensively. The rotations this time has helped on the downside.
Read 9 tweets
#mcmCharts

lets start with forward looking charts

I have been posting $BDI for quite sometime...and as you can see it has been an exceptional forward cue on changes in direction for $SPX - its not great for scale of move but rather TIME...

Trouble starts in Q2 based on this /1
have been presuming $SPX would left translate to the $VOL projections on this chart...but getting increased less optimistic about Jan/Feb left translation...

UNTRANSLATED this points to April/May/June - lets just call it mid May...which is essentially same thing $BDI implies /2
have to finish #mcmPanicEuphoiraIndex array chart BUT we have new 5 year highs in these emotional tools

AS YOU KNOW I RIGHTLY SUGGESTED in NOV...multi-year highs increase time/effort to balance NOW WE HAVE NEW CONFIRMATIONS - very skeptical of a quick topping process $SPX /3
Read 66 tweets
50+ chart #mcmCharts thread coming this weekend...interesting stuff

Will be adding to this thread over the weekend

How about the #AAIIBULLS... incredible
/1
Let’s take a look at the medium, long and very long term #SPX

Appears that major resistance area coming up - over the next 100 to 300 points

/2
Based on this scenario which I have not altered since I posted in in early summer...we are +/- 100 to 200 points from the top of wave B which would make the same expanded flat that has appeared at every top for the last 20 years

/3
Read 56 tweets
2/

Cognitive dissonance has people possessed with looking for 5 wave impulses...when all I see are zigzags and we need to finish this last zag to the upside $SPX
3/

$SPX Earnings
Read 31 tweets
#mcmcharts

1/

50+ important charts coming today and imo the picture is clearing up for the short-term

lets start with $AAPL
2/

monetary aggregates and unemployment - still have not turned #SPX #M1 #M2
3/

$NYSE internals are constructive and confirmed last equities highs which suggests that new highs are likely and that those have a possibility to be unconfirmed
Read 61 tweets
Some important charts coming this weekend

Keep this thread book marked will be updating it and adding charts into tomorrow

#mcmCharts

/1


Its just a freaking $SPX retest (on abysmal volume no less)
/2

WTF happened to the volume $SPX
3/

$SPX daily retest
Read 55 tweets
#mcmCharts

Let’s start with sentiment. #mcmPanicEuphoria and #mcmSentimentIndex

There are a lot of people talking about how there’s no chance of a big drop with people so negative/pessimistic...

THINK AGAIN

contrarianism for the sake of contrarianism is a fools game imo

/1
2/

How is a change in market regime and psychology visible? how about buybacks

DELEVERAGING & REAL LIQUIDATION has been happening in key structural areas that have held up valuations/risk assets - & this is not a trivial issue. BUYBACK ASSETS are getting absolutely liquidated
3/

Regime change or capitulation - BUYBACK performance is HORRENDOUS and markets can not return to real strength imo without them and especially need them in the context of HUGE USTR issuances coming up and QT

imo this is move from a 10 year BULL market to an emerging BEAR $SPX
Read 28 tweets
#CBOE #VIX #volatility index, also known as #WallStreet's "fear gauge" records biggest one-day spike in 10 months
MSCI’s All-Country World Index, which tracks #shares across 47 countries, fell for a six straight day on Monday - marking its longest losing streak this year.
Read 10 tweets
Rough structures #EURUSD and #GOLD since Feb 1st.
Additional infos iro #EURUSD vs #GOLD structure.
Both #gold and #eurusd exited the yellow trendline connecting high 2 to high 3🤔
Read 11 tweets
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *U.S. WAITING TO HEAR FROM #CHINA ON TRADE DEAL, KUDLOW SAYS - BBG
*KUDLOW EXPECTS U.S.-CHINA MEETING IN MARCH IN MAR-A-LAGO
*TRUMP, LIGHTHIZER ARE VERY CLOSE, KUDLOW TELLS CNBC
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #CHINA WOULD HAVE TO NOTE ANY FX INTERVENTION UNDER DEAL: KUDLOW - BBG
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *MNUCHIN SAYS #CHINA #TRADE TALKS INCLUDE 150-PAGE DOCUMENT - BBG
Read 819 tweets
RECESSION THREAD
1/ a lot of you see me post often that a recession is coming. I believe q1/q2 2020 it will happen and I will explain why it will happen then. However don’t expect 2008 unless student debt breaks the govt books (lol)
2/ back in the day when most of you were in high school, recessions came from negative gdp growth. The US hasn’t seen neg gdp in how long? And there’s a reason the #Fed won’t raise rates
3/ we live in an economy financed by debt. They raise the rates too high there won’t be any lending, and the economy will just explode. They won’t allow that to happen. It will be a slow bleed
Read 12 tweets

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