Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SPX
Most recents (24)
For those following the #SPX early-morning settlement saga and "the market is going to collapse due to all the deltas coming off", here is another perspective to ponder:
👉 There's no rational reason to have fireworks.
A few thoughts on the setup into the open...
A 🧵 :
👉 There's no rational reason to have fireworks.
A few thoughts on the setup into the open...
A 🧵 :
1/ The following graphic helps us to understand how to visualize "if-then" outcomes.
It's not a perfect model, but we believe that concept is valid.
The basic premise is that the market knows where the hockey puck is going and is mostly hedged.
Here's why:
It's not a perfect model, but we believe that concept is valid.
The basic premise is that the market knows where the hockey puck is going and is mostly hedged.
Here's why:
2/ Circle 1: What is shown is just the SPX AM-settled component.
For this thread, we have restricted THIS display to just the AM's.
Normally, the SPX Gamma Dash (without the " ^ " before the "SPX Gamma Dash") is both the AM and PM (Combo) combined.
For this thread, we have restricted THIS display to just the AM's.
Normally, the SPX Gamma Dash (without the " ^ " before the "SPX Gamma Dash") is both the AM and PM (Combo) combined.
🚨 #FOMC Trade Thread 🚨
How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX
THIS STRATEGY IS 96% ACCURATE PAST 26 FOMC’S (Only One Non-Event Move) 💰
Please ❤️ & ♻️
How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX
THIS STRATEGY IS 96% ACCURATE PAST 26 FOMC’S (Only One Non-Event Move) 💰
Please ❤️ & ♻️
This strategy has made 60-140+ POINT MOVES in $SPX which equates to around $5-$15 Moves in $SPY ITSELF!
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
👇🏼HOW TO TRADE #FOMC 👇🏼
You FADE the INITIAL REACTION on $SPY at 2PM EST once the Rates are given out and you PLAY the opposite when Powell Speaks at 2:30PM EST.
ITS THAT SIMPLE.
You FADE the INITIAL REACTION on $SPY at 2PM EST once the Rates are given out and you PLAY the opposite when Powell Speaks at 2:30PM EST.
ITS THAT SIMPLE.
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's Take:
•USA #recession is coming
•Bearish daily candlesticks on $SPX and $NDX
• #NDX negative divergences with classic Indis
•Leaders are overextended and some are starting to break
• #JPM collar will stop any #SPX advance at 4320
#SPX #ES_F $SPX $SPY
The Bear's Take:
•USA #recession is coming
•Bearish daily candlesticks on $SPX and $NDX
• #NDX negative divergences with classic Indis
•Leaders are overextended and some are starting to break
• #JPM collar will stop any #SPX advance at 4320
#SPX #ES_F $SPX $SPY
NEXT WEEK
The Bulls' Take
•Breakout of 4200 confirmed
•Momentum is bullish
•Market breadth improved
• $SPX now in official bull market
•Dealers increased their long positions again
• #Gamma is positive
- #CPI will be lower
- #Fed to pause
#ES #SPX $SPY #0dte #options
The Bulls' Take
•Breakout of 4200 confirmed
•Momentum is bullish
•Market breadth improved
• $SPX now in official bull market
•Dealers increased their long positions again
• #Gamma is positive
- #CPI will be lower
- #Fed to pause
#ES #SPX $SPY #0dte #options
NEXT WEEK
Our Take
• Markets are at strong resistance levels, we are expecting a pullback
• Volatile week ahead
• A likely visit to 4220
• Expecting 4320 to stop any $SPX advance
•Expecting #smallcaps to outperform
• #CPI maybe higher, but downtrending
#SPX $SPY $ES_F
Our Take
• Markets are at strong resistance levels, we are expecting a pullback
• Volatile week ahead
• A likely visit to 4220
• Expecting 4320 to stop any $SPX advance
•Expecting #smallcaps to outperform
• #CPI maybe higher, but downtrending
#SPX $SPY $ES_F
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's Take:
•Germany is in recession
• #USA #recession is coming
•Spinning top on Nasdaq
• #NDX negative divergences with classic indis
•Leading stocks are overextended
•Breadth Negative divergences
•4300 is strong resistance
#SPX #ES_F $SPX $SPY #0dte
The Bear's Take:
•Germany is in recession
• #USA #recession is coming
•Spinning top on Nasdaq
• #NDX negative divergences with classic indis
•Leading stocks are overextended
•Breadth Negative divergences
•4300 is strong resistance
#SPX #ES_F $SPX $SPY #0dte
NEXT WEEK
The Bulls's Take
•Daily, weekly and monthly bullish candlestick with high volume
•Big bullish action on Friday, with Breadth Thrust
• $SPX broke important levels on high volume
•Bullish momentum
•Dealers increased their long positions
•Positive #Gamma
#SPX $SPX
The Bulls's Take
•Daily, weekly and monthly bullish candlestick with high volume
•Big bullish action on Friday, with Breadth Thrust
• $SPX broke important levels on high volume
•Bullish momentum
•Dealers increased their long positions
•Positive #Gamma
#SPX $SPX
NEXT WEEK
Our Take
•Momentum is bullish, but indices are near resistance
•A likely visit to 4220 in the next two weeks is expected
•Hard to see a solid break above 4300 this week
•Expecting good performance from the #smallcaps this week
#SPX $SPY $ES_F $SPY #trading
Our Take
•Momentum is bullish, but indices are near resistance
•A likely visit to 4220 in the next two weeks is expected
•Hard to see a solid break above 4300 this week
•Expecting good performance from the #smallcaps this week
#SPX $SPY $ES_F $SPY #trading
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Unresolved Debt ceiling
•Friday's negative day and bearish candlesticks
• Several neg. divergences
•Leading stocks reversed
• #VVIX bullish engulfing candle and #VIX1D daily higher highs higher lows points to more vol ahead
•GDP maybe ↓
$SPX
The Bear's take:
•Unresolved Debt ceiling
•Friday's negative day and bearish candlesticks
• Several neg. divergences
•Leading stocks reversed
• #VVIX bullish engulfing candle and #VIX1D daily higher highs higher lows points to more vol ahead
•GDP maybe ↓
$SPX
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
• Indices up week on high volume
•Buy the dip: Bullish action
•Volatility indicators are subdued
• $NDX, $FAANG, $SMH in good health
• $SPX, $NDX higher highs and higher lows
•Market broke out above resistance
•Breadth thrust last Wednesday
#SPX
The Bull's take
• Indices up week on high volume
•Buy the dip: Bullish action
•Volatility indicators are subdued
• $NDX, $FAANG, $SMH in good health
• $SPX, $NDX higher highs and higher lows
•Market broke out above resistance
•Breadth thrust last Wednesday
#SPX
Rising volume in $XLK, $VTV, and good enough $SMH transparently prepared the ground for improving #ES market breadth – but the one factor that made me reconsider the requisites of the medium-term (bearish) outlook, was this.
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
#ES flirted with 4,115 again after that great intraday $HYG reversal portended downside #volatility when cyclicals didn‘t really point higher.
The day ended with a profound deterioration in market breadth and unappealing sectoral overview.
THREAD 👇
The day ended with a profound deterioration in market breadth and unappealing sectoral overview.
THREAD 👇
2. #tech upswing invited selling interest, while #value and especially $IWM turned strongly south.
#ES though had been relatively resilient given both #manufacturing and #retailsales hits, and today‘s data in #housing weren‘t slated to bring a disaster.
The figures are
#ES though had been relatively resilient given both #manufacturing and #retailsales hits, and today‘s data in #housing weren‘t slated to bring a disaster.
The figures are
공부하며 알게된 사실
1. 비트코인은 반감기보단 매크로에 따라 움직였다
2. 역사상 비트코인 반감기는 선거시기 , 매크로회복 시기와 맞물렸다
3. 이번 매크로 회복은 최소 2년 이상 걸릴것이다(core cpi 년간 1프로씩 떨어지는중)
4. 금리인상이 멈추면 단기랠리가 나왔다
#bitcoin #macro
1. 비트코인은 반감기보단 매크로에 따라 움직였다
2. 역사상 비트코인 반감기는 선거시기 , 매크로회복 시기와 맞물렸다
3. 이번 매크로 회복은 최소 2년 이상 걸릴것이다(core cpi 년간 1프로씩 떨어지는중)
4. 금리인상이 멈추면 단기랠리가 나왔다
#bitcoin #macro
5. 금리를 인하시엔 오히려 폭락장이 왔다
6. 신용경색이 일으킬 나비효과는 아직 나오지 않은 상황이다
7. 영구 실업률을 발표하지 않고 실업수당 발표를 하는건 아이러니하다
8. 그럼에도 불구하고 실업수당청구치는 최저에서 고개를 드는중
6. 신용경색이 일으킬 나비효과는 아직 나오지 않은 상황이다
7. 영구 실업률을 발표하지 않고 실업수당 발표를 하는건 아이러니하다
8. 그럼에도 불구하고 실업수당청구치는 최저에서 고개를 드는중
9. 생산자 물가상승률이 떨어진다고해서 물가가 낮아진것은 아니다. 고공에서 멈춰있는것
10. 저금리로 실적없이 먹고살던 좀비회사가 갈수록 상환기일이 다가오고있다
11. 제조업 수련자들의 노동시간이 줄어드는중이다
10. 저금리로 실적없이 먹고살던 좀비회사가 갈수록 상환기일이 다가오고있다
11. 제조업 수련자들의 노동시간이 줄어드는중이다
What to join my free private Twitter that goes over #ES_F #SPX and $SPY when requested?
Then all I ask, is that you take the time to complete the 2 very simple tasks below.
Then all I ask, is that you take the time to complete the 2 very simple tasks below.
Task # 1 - click on @StoughtonCharts and follow it
Task #2 - once you have a follow pending, message me here on @Matt_Stoughton.
📊 Market Analysis Time...
Reviewing:
- Bitcoin
- SPX
- DXY
- US 10 Year Bond Yields
A thread....
1/5
Reviewing:
- Bitcoin
- SPX
- DXY
- US 10 Year Bond Yields
A thread....
1/5
#Bitcoin has been neatly following my calls from November broken down on my YouTube.
Currently, per this analysis I sent last week, I still think we're headed to 32K liquidations.
Notice the more time we spent here, the more people flipped bearish / became fearful.
Currently, per this analysis I sent last week, I still think we're headed to 32K liquidations.
Notice the more time we spent here, the more people flipped bearish / became fearful.
#SPX The weekly chart has accumulated. Buyside liquidity is ready for grabs at 4412.00
All we need is a catalyst to precipitate the run up, what is that?
Sell In May.
Sell In May is what will fuel this move up. All of retail will be shorting, setting the stage for an expansion
All we need is a catalyst to precipitate the run up, what is that?
Sell In May.
Sell In May is what will fuel this move up. All of retail will be shorting, setting the stage for an expansion
🚨 #FOMC Trade Thread 🚨
How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX
THIS STRATEGY IS 96.1% ACCURATE PAST 26 FOMC’S (Only One Non-Event Move) 👇
Please ❤️ & ♻️
How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX
THIS STRATEGY IS 96.1% ACCURATE PAST 26 FOMC’S (Only One Non-Event Move) 👇
Please ❤️ & ♻️
This strategy has made 60-140+ POINT MOVES in $SPX which equates to around $5-$15 Moves in $SPY ITSELF!
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
HOW TO TRADE #FOMC 
You FADE the INITIAL REACTION on $SPY at 2PM EST once the Rates are given out and you PLAY the opposite when Powell Speaks at 2:30PM EST.
Example: If initially the market falls at 2PM you would go long at 2:25-2:35 once he starts to speak &this can be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
You FADE the INITIAL REACTION on $SPY at 2PM EST once the Rates are given out and you PLAY the opposite when Powell Speaks at 2:30PM EST.
Example: If initially the market falls at 2PM you would go long at 2:25-2:35 once he starts to speak &this can be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
🚨 #FOMC Trade Thread 🚨
How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX
THIS STRATEGY IS 96.1% ACCURATE PAST 26 FOMC’S (Only One Non-Event Move) 💰
Please ❤️ & ♻️ 👇🏼
How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX
THIS STRATEGY IS 96.1% ACCURATE PAST 26 FOMC’S (Only One Non-Event Move) 💰
Please ❤️ & ♻️ 👇🏼
This strategy has made 60-140+ POINT MOVES in $SPX which equates to around $5-$15 Moves in $SPY ITSELF!
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
👇🏼HOW TO TRADE #FOMC 👇🏼
You FADE the INITIAL REACTION on $SPY at 2PM EST once the Rates are given out and you PLAY the opposite when Powell Speaks at 2:30PM EST.
Example: If initially the market falls at 2PM you would go long at 2:25-2:35 once he starts to speak &this can be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
You FADE the INITIAL REACTION on $SPY at 2PM EST once the Rates are given out and you PLAY the opposite when Powell Speaks at 2:30PM EST.
Example: If initially the market falls at 2PM you would go long at 2:25-2:35 once he starts to speak &this can be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
#MarketReport 2023/04
1) In this thread, I'll cover comparative performance of
📌 #Stock Indices
📌 #Exchange Rates
📌 Treasury #Bills and Government #Bonds
both for April and since pandemic.
1) In this thread, I'll cover comparative performance of
📌 #Stock Indices
📌 #Exchange Rates
📌 Treasury #Bills and Government #Bonds
both for April and since pandemic.
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Monthly close on lighter volume
•Negative divergences from classic indicators
•Tough talk from FEDs
•Inflation is sticky, rates ↑
• #Recession is here
• #GDP ↓
•Leading indicators ↓
• #AAPL earnings ↓
•Big #Gamma at 4000
$SPX #SPX
The Bear's take:
•Monthly close on lighter volume
•Negative divergences from classic indicators
•Tough talk from FEDs
•Inflation is sticky, rates ↑
• #Recession is here
• #GDP ↓
•Leading indicators ↓
• #AAPL earnings ↓
•Big #Gamma at 4000
$SPX #SPX
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Upward momentum is lost
•Negative divergences and sell signals from classic indicators
•Big weekly bullish enfulfing candle on $VVIX
•Weekly bearish haramis on major indices
•Inflation is sticky, higher rates coming
• #Recession is here
#ES_F
The Bear's take:
•Upward momentum is lost
•Negative divergences and sell signals from classic indicators
•Big weekly bullish enfulfing candle on $VVIX
•Weekly bearish haramis on major indices
•Inflation is sticky, higher rates coming
• #Recession is here
#ES_F
A longer 🧵today to explain what we saw. This analysis is using tick-level OPRA data vs. a heuristics-based RT OI estimate currently on our feed. We will look to roll this out soon.
Day started normally, with LG at 4100.
Day started normally, with LG at 4100.
However, by 10:30, we saw some very interesting behaviour. Specifically, we saw #0DTE bulls acting very aggressive, including selling ATM puts at 4120 strike.
By noon, we could tell they were now targeting 4125 and 4130 strikes on their calls.
Choroba niestety nie odpuszcza.
Dzisiaj za dużo nie stworzę ale szybkie podsumowanie wykresów do kawusi 👇 #DXY #SPX #BTC #ETH 👇
Pamiętajcie, że najważniejsze to zacząć tydzień z dobry nastawieniem 🙃
1/🧵
Dzisiaj za dużo nie stworzę ale szybkie podsumowanie wykresów do kawusi 👇 #DXY #SPX #BTC #ETH 👇
Pamiętajcie, że najważniejsze to zacząć tydzień z dobry nastawieniem 🙃
1/🧵
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
The new issue will be out in the morning before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures
@UnrollHelper
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
The new issue will be out in the morning before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures
@UnrollHelper
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Market is in decreasing weekly volume
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
•Valuations are high
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
#ES_F #SPX
The Bear's take:
•Market is in decreasing weekly volume
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
•Valuations are high
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
#ES_F #SPX
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
The new issue will be out tomorrow before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures $Gamma
@UnrollHelper
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
The new issue will be out tomorrow before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures $Gamma
@UnrollHelper
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Market is up in decreasing weekly volume
•Market is overbought
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
#ES_F #SPX
The Bear's take:
•Market is up in decreasing weekly volume
•Market is overbought
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
#ES_F #SPX
🗓️ 2020 - 2021 - 2022 + 2023/Q1 Returns
1) #SPX
S&P 500 Endeksinin geçen 3 yıldaki ve bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki getirileri
1) #SPX
S&P 500 Endeksinin geçen 3 yıldaki ve bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki getirileri
#ChartStorm: 1/17
🗓️ March Performance of ...
🇺🇸 #SPX #IXIC #DJI 🇯🇵 #NI225 🇩🇪 #DAX 🇹🇷 #XU100
#DXY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #CADUSD #JPYUSD #TRYUSD
#TreasuryBills #GovernmentBonds #Yields
🗓️ March Performance of ...
🇺🇸 #SPX #IXIC #DJI 🇯🇵 #NI225 🇩🇪 #DAX 🇹🇷 #XU100
#DXY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #CADUSD #JPYUSD #TRYUSD
#TreasuryBills #GovernmentBonds #Yields
2) Here I'll cover 6 stock market indices in 4 countries:
In order to compare the relative performances, I've chosen a pre-pandemic basis, which is 31/12/2019 closing values.
As Nasdaq, S&P500 and DJI are denominated in US dollars, but the others not, returns are misleading.
In order to compare the relative performances, I've chosen a pre-pandemic basis, which is 31/12/2019 closing values.
As Nasdaq, S&P500 and DJI are denominated in US dollars, but the others not, returns are misleading.
3) I have adjusted the data, and now all are denominated in US dollars.
#BIST returns are still amazing with its 30.4%, but not striking as above. Besides it is positive only after Sep'22. #Nasdaq is leading with 36.2% return. #Nikkei225 is the only index below pandemic level.
#BIST returns are still amazing with its 30.4%, but not striking as above. Besides it is positive only after Sep'22. #Nasdaq is leading with 36.2% return. #Nikkei225 is the only index below pandemic level.
@dampedspring It may be a bit more than $3B Andy.
We're showing the following structure into the end-of week:
charts.gammaedge.us/charm_oi_3d_SP…
What we think matters on Friday is that ITM call component, as it will continue to push flows upward.
We're showing the following structure into the end-of week:
charts.gammaedge.us/charm_oi_3d_SP…
What we think matters on Friday is that ITM call component, as it will continue to push flows upward.
@dampedspring ... but into Friday, there is a significant net positive flow that could capture more ITM puts, forcing them to OTM and positive flow, as well as capturing more ITM calls.
charts.gammaedge.us/net_charm_oi_3…
charts.gammaedge.us/net_charm_oi_3…
@dampedspring What is most striking to us is the simple collapse of charm AFTER Friday.
The landscape for April is flat, relative to the charm surface of this week.
The contrast is quite evident.
✍️
The landscape for April is flat, relative to the charm surface of this week.
The contrast is quite evident.
✍️
1a- Contextual understanding
#Macro level
I posted this last night. The rotation from tech to Financial sector was the intervening variable pushing spy & QQQ down. QQQ bottomed at $308 that's when $SPY started to move up:
#Macro level
I posted this last night. The rotation from tech to Financial sector was the intervening variable pushing spy & QQQ down. QQQ bottomed at $308 that's when $SPY started to move up:
1b- Knowing confluence levels, major points of interest, and support and resistance. I posted these last night for twitter super followers. Draw lines for yourself of price rejection and bounce for one week, the highs and the lows.
This is the start of Drip Drops Knowledge!
Remember to hit that follow button if you like the content.
#SPY #SPX $ES_F #QQQ #futurestrading #OptionsTrading #options
Remember to hit that follow button if you like the content.
#SPY #SPX $ES_F #QQQ #futurestrading #OptionsTrading #options
The first official Knowledge Drop. $GME reported earnings last night and is up over 50% this morning. A short float of 24% (as reported by #Ortex) might have something to do with that. Breakdown in slide, follow me for weekly Knowledge Drops!
#GME #ShortSqueeze
#GME #ShortSqueeze
Last week, I discussed the concept of a “short squeeze.” This week let’s look at the dynamics of dealer hedging and the concept of a “gamma squeeze.”
#ShortSqueeze #GammaSqueeze #SPY #SPX $ES
#ShortSqueeze #GammaSqueeze #SPY #SPX $ES
