Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SPX

Most recents (24)

#Momentum leads #Value over the past 30 days, too.
In fact, #Momentum leads #Value on the downside as well, by not drawing down as much. I said last week momentum was positioned defensively. The rotations this time has helped on the downside.
Read 9 tweets

lets start with forward looking charts

I have been posting $BDI for quite sometime...and as you can see it has been an exceptional forward cue on changes in direction for $SPX - its not great for scale of move but rather TIME...

Trouble starts in Q2 based on this /1
have been presuming $SPX would left translate to the $VOL projections on this chart...but getting increased less optimistic about Jan/Feb left translation...

UNTRANSLATED this points to April/May/June - lets just call it mid May...which is essentially same thing $BDI implies /2
have to finish #mcmPanicEuphoiraIndex array chart BUT we have new 5 year highs in these emotional tools

AS YOU KNOW I RIGHTLY SUGGESTED in NOV...multi-year highs increase time/effort to balance NOW WE HAVE NEW CONFIRMATIONS - very skeptical of a quick topping process $SPX /3
Read 66 tweets
50+ chart #mcmCharts thread coming this weekend...interesting stuff

Will be adding to this thread over the weekend

How about the #AAIIBULLS... incredible
Let’s take a look at the medium, long and very long term #SPX

Appears that major resistance area coming up - over the next 100 to 300 points

Based on this scenario which I have not altered since I posted in in early summer...we are +/- 100 to 200 points from the top of wave B which would make the same expanded flat that has appeared at every top for the last 20 years

Read 56 tweets

Cognitive dissonance has people possessed with looking for 5 wave impulses...when all I see are zigzags and we need to finish this last zag to the upside $SPX

$SPX Earnings
Read 31 tweets


50+ important charts coming today and imo the picture is clearing up for the short-term

lets start with $AAPL

monetary aggregates and unemployment - still have not turned #SPX #M1 #M2

$NYSE internals are constructive and confirmed last equities highs which suggests that new highs are likely and that those have a possibility to be unconfirmed
Read 61 tweets
Some important charts coming this weekend

Keep this thread book marked will be updating it and adding charts into tomorrow



Its just a freaking $SPX retest (on abysmal volume no less)

WTF happened to the volume $SPX

$SPX daily retest
Read 55 tweets

Let’s start with sentiment. #mcmPanicEuphoria and #mcmSentimentIndex

There are a lot of people talking about how there’s no chance of a big drop with people so negative/pessimistic...


contrarianism for the sake of contrarianism is a fools game imo


How is a change in market regime and psychology visible? how about buybacks

DELEVERAGING & REAL LIQUIDATION has been happening in key structural areas that have held up valuations/risk assets - & this is not a trivial issue. BUYBACK ASSETS are getting absolutely liquidated

Regime change or capitulation - BUYBACK performance is HORRENDOUS and markets can not return to real strength imo without them and especially need them in the context of HUGE USTR issuances coming up and QT

imo this is move from a 10 year BULL market to an emerging BEAR $SPX
Read 28 tweets
#CBOE #VIX #volatility index, also known as #WallStreet's "fear gauge" records biggest one-day spike in 10 months
MSCI’s All-Country World Index, which tracks #shares across 47 countries, fell for a six straight day on Monday - marking its longest losing streak this year.
Read 10 tweets
Rough structures #EURUSD and #GOLD since Feb 1st.
Additional infos iro #EURUSD vs #GOLD structure.
Both #gold and #eurusd exited the yellow trendline connecting high 2 to high 3🤔
Read 11 tweets
Read 819 tweets
1/ a lot of you see me post often that a recession is coming. I believe q1/q2 2020 it will happen and I will explain why it will happen then. However don’t expect 2008 unless student debt breaks the govt books (lol)
2/ back in the day when most of you were in high school, recessions came from negative gdp growth. The US hasn’t seen neg gdp in how long? And there’s a reason the #Fed won’t raise rates
3/ we live in an economy financed by debt. They raise the rates too high there won’t be any lending, and the economy will just explode. They won’t allow that to happen. It will be a slow bleed
Read 12 tweets
🇺🇸 #SPX (1) | Equities ⬆ significantly since Dec. lows with participants not taking into account:
1/ the global synchronised slowdown that should be associated with a global trade contraction (YoY) soon
2/ the likely earnings recession in U.S. (and 🇪🇺)
🇺🇸 #SPX (2) | The move can be partly explained by the dovish switch in CBs:
1/ #Fed makes a pause in ⬆ rates and should should stop ⬇ its BS by year-end
2/ #ECB is likely to delay its 1st rate ⬆ and will launch new TLTROs
3/ #BOJ is considering 4 options for extra easing
🇺🇸 #SPX (3) | This easing charge has significant repercussions on asset prices leading to a sharp ⬆ of bonds trading with negative yields (up 60% since Oct. according to a Bloomberg/Barclays index)

#TINA can also explain why investors have rushed into other risky assets
Read 10 tweets


Professionals have been piling into puts - this is the 10 day #OEX put/call ratio


(this post is especially for @yuriymatso)

Longer-term $TICK is on the zero line (though this calculation is deceptive as in OVERLY OPTIMISTIC - even an over-optimistic measure with inherent quantization is at signficant risk of a major breakdown)
Read 68 tweets

Lets get this, what’ll probably be way more than 80 chart (yes possibly over 100 charts) #mcm_chartstorm going

Since most analysts (except a few great ones) we see on twitter appear to be copping out as mkt has risen, how much all this BULLISHNESS is really in the mkt? $SPX

In the past we have discussed the epic internal/structural relationships between $NDX and $SPX in 2000 and $FAANGvs $SPX in 2019...lets take a look at that model again

How lets take a look at how this model has played out since we posted it mid year last year...

$FAANG $FNG vs $SPX has followed the model extremely well, with one exception...the $FANG meltdown has been much worse structurally & nominally than the 2000 disaster.
Read 101 tweets
Let’s get this #mcm_chartstorm going


Let’s start with the $INDU

And $SPY $SPX have the same pattern & perfect symmetry BTW imo

$SPHBI High Beta index made a perfect kiss of resistance
Read 61 tweets
Well, this is not going to end well...

$VIX is trading at the LARGEST ever discount to its Realized Volatility reference calculation...

Corporate Credit is trading at the 2nd largest divergence to #SPX ever (other than Sept high)
Speaking of $VIX & $VXO check this out. $SPX is shown inverted in this chart & looks awfully bullish plus there is TONS of convergence at 2600
This is our proprietary Historical Volatility calculation that actually forecasts what value $VIX or $VXO should be - which in truth is quite different to 30 day realized volatility which is much too slow imo
Read 3 tweets

Let’s get this #MCM_CHARTSTORM started.

There are a lot of charts. Will be updating the thread into tomorrow, so if you want to see the whole thing it will not be complete till tomorrow - keep checking back.

Will also prepare a THREADVIEWER version

Let’s start with $SPX

Here is a better version of that $COMP & $SPX (gray) chart

How about the $COMPQ Running Correction? Its coming right along and following perfectly as well as getting ready to soon pull the rug out from underneath buyers imo $SPX
Read 61 tweets
Mini Chart storm starts now


Global Dow broke support yesterday - this is a BIG DEAL

Major US indexes failed at resistance and are now in process of testing shelf supports that open flood waters when broken

NOT what you want to see VOLUME ON DECLINING ISSUES is way bigger than the decline in the Advance/Decline line. The largest this year. Suggests institutional commitment to the selling $SPX
Read 13 tweets
🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇮🇷 #Canada arrests #Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver – The Globe and Mail…
A gauge of #technology shares on the MSCI #Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 3 percent before paring some losses - Bloomberg
🇺🇸 #SPX ⬇ as much as 1.9% from Tuesday’s close, before paring some losses. Selling pressure early in the session was so intense that it forced CME Group to intermittently pause trading, according to a spokesperson for the exchange - Bloomberg
Read 736 tweets

Please read the whole thread - will start posting now...but eating dinner so will take a while to get the 30 to 40 tweets done

Given the two crashes in one year and the recent #FANG blow much cash do you think Mutual Funds are holding? How about the lowest ever!

More over their allocations to Stocks remain among the highest ever.

And how are those stock/equity investments postured?

We’ll very precariously as #NYSE and #Nasdaq #Composite show...completely stopped at major resistance...not only that there is the breadth question which we will address later and is terrible

Read 38 tweets
1/ i see a lot of ppl on CT talking about $btc and #spx #dji and how they are correlated. I will give my opinion on the subject, but first to back my hypothesis i will give a background on myself
2/ i was in equity and private placement before crypto. I left that world for crypto. i have an MBA. I raised millions upon millions of dollars for public companies in private placement memorandums (warrants, options, etc...).
3/ CT is filled with crypto moonbois who came into trading through crypto. There is nothing wrong with that. In fact if you are still here after a year of bear (or youre 2nd bear) you have learned a life skill (TA) that you can rarely find in a college curriculum
Read 10 tweets
Tria non potrebbe mai lavorare con @POTUS 😂😂😂
#TriaExit #Mef cosa?
Sta diventando stucchevole..tanto 1,6/2/2,5 la sostanza non arriva la contrazione economica seria come preambolo di travolge ...senza se e senza ma...

Read 347 tweets
Arbitraggio di "latenza" e frammentazione della struttura del mercato US sono i concetti (da approfondire) su cui si basa la manipolazione del mercato americano, grazie al ruolo svolto da #HFT e Quants
per iniziare un video che rappresenta un "must"
Ogni rettangolo colorato nel video è un exchange,ce ne sono 13 che tradano equities US ma controllati da 3 gruppi,Nasdaq/Nyse/Cboe quest'ultimo domina su opzioni e futures con CME. Ma ogni giorno il 40% del volume di scambi avviene nell'oscurità delle dark pool (oggi 2,15 mld $!)
Qui incominciamo a vedere i vari livelli che intercorrono prima di arrivare ad un "buy" per un "comune mortale"...
Read 51 tweets
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.………
Read 338 tweets

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