Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SPX
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@dampedspring It may be a bit more than $3B Andy.
We're showing the following structure into the end-of week:
charts.gammaedge.us/charm_oi_3d_SP…
What we think matters on Friday is that ITM call component, as it will continue to push flows upward.
We're showing the following structure into the end-of week:
charts.gammaedge.us/charm_oi_3d_SP…
What we think matters on Friday is that ITM call component, as it will continue to push flows upward.
@dampedspring ... but into Friday, there is a significant net positive flow that could capture more ITM puts, forcing them to OTM and positive flow, as well as capturing more ITM calls.
charts.gammaedge.us/net_charm_oi_3…
charts.gammaedge.us/net_charm_oi_3…
@dampedspring What is most striking to us is the simple collapse of charm AFTER Friday.
The landscape for April is flat, relative to the charm surface of this week.
The contrast is quite evident.
✍️
The landscape for April is flat, relative to the charm surface of this week.
The contrast is quite evident.
✍️
1a- Contextual understanding
#Macro level
I posted this last night. The rotation from tech to Financial sector was the intervening variable pushing spy & QQQ down. QQQ bottomed at $308 that's when $SPY started to move up:
#Macro level
I posted this last night. The rotation from tech to Financial sector was the intervening variable pushing spy & QQQ down. QQQ bottomed at $308 that's when $SPY started to move up:
1b- Knowing confluence levels, major points of interest, and support and resistance. I posted these last night for twitter super followers. Draw lines for yourself of price rejection and bounce for one week, the highs and the lows.
Gold attempting to BREAKOUT of its second BIGGEST yearly defined base versus SPX.
Possible analog roadmaps with price & time targets.
8000$ in 2034
12000$ in 2033
21000$ in 2030
Overshoot on smaller time frames not included.
#gold #xauusd #spx #fintwit #inflation #recession
Possible analog roadmaps with price & time targets.
8000$ in 2034
12000$ in 2033
21000$ in 2030
Overshoot on smaller time frames not included.
#gold #xauusd #spx #fintwit #inflation #recession
Somehow our pinned tweet disappeared, so here it is again
This is a thread with information we think valuable:
1) Our Compact Guide to Understanding #Gamma
2) $SPX $Gamma structure Cheat Sheet
3) Our Compact Guide to Options Strategies
4) 2023 Options Calendar... and more
🧵
This is a thread with information we think valuable:
1) Our Compact Guide to Understanding #Gamma
2) $SPX $Gamma structure Cheat Sheet
3) Our Compact Guide to Options Strategies
4) 2023 Options Calendar... and more
🧵
CYCLICALS vs DEFENSIVES:
Renowned investors like Stanley Druckenmiller routinely monitor the performance of Cyclicals vs Defensives as a signal for #stocks, $SPY and #macro economy.
At HQ, we use the following monitor (chart). Whats it telling us now? a 🧵
Renowned investors like Stanley Druckenmiller routinely monitor the performance of Cyclicals vs Defensives as a signal for #stocks, $SPY and #macro economy.
At HQ, we use the following monitor (chart). Whats it telling us now? a 🧵
2/ Lets focus on whats happened, before future expectations
The top panel of the chart shows the relative performance of Cyclical sectors over Defensive sectors ("CDR")
Panel 2 is the #SPX
Panel 3 is the Z-score of the 13 week move in the CDR with 2 std dev movements marked...
The top panel of the chart shows the relative performance of Cyclical sectors over Defensive sectors ("CDR")
Panel 2 is the #SPX
Panel 3 is the Z-score of the 13 week move in the CDR with 2 std dev movements marked...
3/ The final panel (4) shows the rolling cumulative performance of the CDR mapped against HQ's leading economic leading index ("HQLEI", rolling 13 week chg).
From mid '21, the HQLEI fell for the first time in a yr & this preceded the CDR peaking in Nov 21, signaled by...
From mid '21, the HQLEI fell for the first time in a yr & this preceded the CDR peaking in Nov 21, signaled by...
HedgQuarters S&P500 EPS Forecast Model Update:
1/ In Oct 22 we released our S&P 500 multi factor earnings forecast model based on data releases up to Sept 22. Now with 4-5 months more data we have updated the model and highlight the interesting changes
$SPY $QQQ #macro #stocks
1/ In Oct 22 we released our S&P 500 multi factor earnings forecast model based on data releases up to Sept 22. Now with 4-5 months more data we have updated the model and highlight the interesting changes
$SPY $QQQ #macro #stocks
2/ As always we present 2 scenarios. With variable lags to the impact of rate hikes, these models map out 2 assumption sets:
A. the impact on FUTURE EPS of the latest leading econ data, by extending current settings of leading indicators into the future unchanged "STATIC MODEL"
A. the impact on FUTURE EPS of the latest leading econ data, by extending current settings of leading indicators into the future unchanged "STATIC MODEL"
3/ B. "RECESSION MODEL": the impact on future EPS of both current econ data and a forecast assumption set that maps out a possible recession scenario in the US (assumptions at end)
These 2 models allow investors to assess (1) what a recession may look like to earnings and
These 2 models allow investors to assess (1) what a recession may look like to earnings and
1/ While there is a lot of speculation about "what happened" as we moved into the late afternoon session, we think it's pretty clear.
There was a tremendous amount of ITM call delta in the #SPX that was vaporizing, either through monetization or through the expiry...
There was a tremendous amount of ITM call delta in the #SPX that was vaporizing, either through monetization or through the expiry...
2/ Here is the #SPX delta structure at 2:20 pm ET, with a link for you to interact with:
charts.gammaedge.us/delta_oi_3d_SP…
charts.gammaedge.us/delta_oi_3d_SP…
3/ There is a significant amount of ITM call delta that is on the edge of that surface -- that's today's expiry.
Note the imbalance - little exists over on the put side of the graphic.
As many of you know, as we march through time, the ITM components grow...
Note the imbalance - little exists over on the put side of the graphic.
As many of you know, as we march through time, the ITM components grow...
INTERPRETING THE CPI NOWCAST & how it works - a 🧵:
I, like many, have seen the rise in the CPI Nowcast over the last month & used it as a basis for expectations for Tuesday's #CPI release.
But how accurate is it at times like these. See chart:
#macro #inflation $SPY $QQQ #SPX
I, like many, have seen the rise in the CPI Nowcast over the last month & used it as a basis for expectations for Tuesday's #CPI release.
But how accurate is it at times like these. See chart:
#macro #inflation $SPY $QQQ #SPX
2/ The chart shows that as inflation rose, the Nowcast underestimated it and as it falls, theres been overestimation. Why?
Well the CPI Nowcast is based on an econometric model specified here: clefed.org/40Um5DE
I summarize how it works below and draw conclusions
Well the CPI Nowcast is based on an econometric model specified here: clefed.org/40Um5DE
I summarize how it works below and draw conclusions
3/ The Nowcast is computed from 3 core inputs, each of which is based on its own estimation process:
1. Core CPI Nowcast
2. Food CPI Nowcast
3. Gasoline CPI Nowcast
In simple terms, Core & Food are actually based on moving averages from the past 12 months of data...
1. Core CPI Nowcast
2. Food CPI Nowcast
3. Gasoline CPI Nowcast
In simple terms, Core & Food are actually based on moving averages from the past 12 months of data...
Have #Fed rate hikes led to the slowdown in #inflation we've seen so far?
That's the conventional wisdom anyway. BUT, the San Francisco Fed's own index actually says "NO"!
Why & implications. A thread...
#macro #Stocks #SPX $QQQ
1/8
That's the conventional wisdom anyway. BUT, the San Francisco Fed's own index actually says "NO"!
Why & implications. A thread...
#macro #Stocks #SPX $QQQ
1/8
2/8
This chart (YoY before & MoM below) breaks out Core PCE #inflation into cyclical & Acyclical components
Cyclical are those influenced by the eco cycle, Acyclical are those that have had a statistically insignificant relationship w/ past cycles
Cyclical inflation...
This chart (YoY before & MoM below) breaks out Core PCE #inflation into cyclical & Acyclical components
Cyclical are those influenced by the eco cycle, Acyclical are those that have had a statistically insignificant relationship w/ past cycles
Cyclical inflation...
3/8
hasn't declined yet - at least on YoY basis with MoM measures only recently starting to cool. The real cooling so far has been in the Acyclical parts!
This is because, if you look at what heated up first and to the greatest extent in the first chart, it was typically...
hasn't declined yet - at least on YoY basis with MoM measures only recently starting to cool. The real cooling so far has been in the Acyclical parts!
This is because, if you look at what heated up first and to the greatest extent in the first chart, it was typically...
Yesterday a large put trade in ES traded. My clients had questions. This was my answer. Let's call it "Icahn 101" I answer these client questions all day long. This is my value add if I have any. Waitlist sign up at dampedspring.com
#SPX $ES $SPy
#SPX $ES $SPy
Mid day today 24000 2/17 expiry 4050 strike options on ES were purchased from market makers. People have speculated it was Carl Icahn as his trading desk is well know to make agressive short term bets (usually selling options). The trade cost 30MN in premium on 4.8BN notional
The immediate implications of this trade when it printed was the need for Market makers who sold the put to short roughly 7200 futures contract worth roughly 1.5BN dollars. That caused the local low
🚨Discorso di #Powell all'Economic Club di Washington🚨
Fra una ventina di minuti zio Powell tornerà a parlare dopo il recente #FOMC.
Seguiamo #live il discorso per capire se la #FED confermerà la sua posizione o se verrà in contro ai mercati
LIVE THREAD⬇️🧵
Fra una ventina di minuti zio Powell tornerà a parlare dopo il recente #FOMC.
Seguiamo #live il discorso per capire se la #FED confermerà la sua posizione o se verrà in contro ai mercati
LIVE THREAD⬇️🧵
@crypto_gateway @GatewayMeme @CryptoMeme_Ita @MemeingBitcoin @AFTSDCrypto @hardrockcrypto @MarcheseCrypto @TradingonIt @BitCryptoRepost @financialjuice 1/ Per seguire il discorso ecco qui il link 🔗
@crypto_gateway @GatewayMeme @CryptoMeme_Ita @MemeingBitcoin @AFTSDCrypto @hardrockcrypto @MarcheseCrypto @TradingonIt @BitCryptoRepost @financialjuice 2/ Prima di cominciare è molto interessante l'intervento di ieri di Bostic della FED:
"Se necessario si potrà rivalutare la possibilità di tornare ad almeno un rialzo di 50 bps."
"Se necessario si potrà rivalutare la possibilità di tornare ad almeno un rialzo di 50 bps."
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
Today's issue will be out in the morning
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ $DIj #trading #options #Futures
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
Today's issue will be out in the morning
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ $DIj #trading #options #Futures
I got a little excited about the S&P500 going up each day lately.
I feel like I’m missing out, a guess like a @agnostoxxx’s monkeys.
So I consider buying some here. But what is it worth? I don’t know and nobody on CNBC wants to tell me.
1/n #SPX
I feel like I’m missing out, a guess like a @agnostoxxx’s monkeys.
So I consider buying some here. But what is it worth? I don’t know and nobody on CNBC wants to tell me.
1/n #SPX
So I decided to look at SPX like a giant American Corporation (let me call it “ACo”) with a market cap of US$33 trillion - genius, isn’t it?
2/n
2/n
At any one point, I can buy or sell ACo. Thereby the market offers me a price/share - currently US$ 4,410.
In return, I receive a value per share. Isn’t that how it works? Price is what I pay, value is what I get?
3/n
In return, I receive a value per share. Isn’t that how it works? Price is what I pay, value is what I get?
3/n
After shorting the top at $69k
Longing the bottom at $16k
Im here to tell you that the market is once again, fkd.
$24,300 #bitcoin, 4205 #SPX top
I expected more out of this pump.
But unfortunately, I cannot ignore the signs in front of me.
Longing the bottom at $16k
Im here to tell you that the market is once again, fkd.
$24,300 #bitcoin, 4205 #SPX top
I expected more out of this pump.
But unfortunately, I cannot ignore the signs in front of me.
VIX at 5 year support
UST 10 Year yield, triple bottom with bullish divergence
#SPX $SPY Breadth Ratio update 🧵:
This situation continues to get more intriguing. After the rally the last 2 days, I expected this signal to be resoundingly rejected
But the % of stocks > their 20 day MA relative to those above 200 MA has fallen below 1... 1/4
$QQQ #stocks
This situation continues to get more intriguing. After the rally the last 2 days, I expected this signal to be resoundingly rejected
But the % of stocks > their 20 day MA relative to those above 200 MA has fallen below 1... 1/4
$QQQ #stocks
2/4 Whats this really showing?
Individual components of the ratio shown below
An increasing % of #stocks are above their 200 MA as expected in a rally, but the % above their 20 MA is flat potentially presaging declining momentum of the rally...
$SPY $QQQ #SPX
Individual components of the ratio shown below
An increasing % of #stocks are above their 200 MA as expected in a rally, but the % above their 20 MA is flat potentially presaging declining momentum of the rally...
$SPY $QQQ #SPX
3/5 When the % > 200MA is very high like now, but the % > 20 day MA starts to weaken, then we typically conclude the rally is in late stage and at risk
This may not be yet - as seen in orange the % > 20DMA can fluctuate at highs for a while. But given some weakening 2day...
This may not be yet - as seen in orange the % > 20DMA can fluctuate at highs for a while. But given some weakening 2day...
This strategy has made 60-140+ POINT MOVES in $SPX which equates to around $5-$15 Moves in $SPY ITSELF! 🚀
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
1) #TheEconomist dergisinin güncel makalesini kısaca aktarayım:
2022'de hem hisse senedi hem de tahvil piyasasındaki düşüşler güvenli liman bulmayı zorlaştırmıştı. "İyi bir yıl." diyenlerse kayıpların yüzde 20'nin üzerine geçtiği bir ortamda tek haneli kayıplar yaşayanlardı.
2022'de hem hisse senedi hem de tahvil piyasasındaki düşüşler güvenli liman bulmayı zorlaştırmıştı. "İyi bir yıl." diyenlerse kayıpların yüzde 20'nin üzerine geçtiği bir ortamda tek haneli kayıplar yaşayanlardı.
2) Endeksten daha iyi getiri sağlama konusunda fon yöneticileriyle algoritmalar arasındaysa bu kez fon yöneticileri galip geldi.
2010 - 2021 aralığında, her sene fon yöneticilerinin yarısından fazlası, #SPX Endeksini geçemeyerek başarısız olmuştur.
2010 - 2021 aralığında, her sene fon yöneticilerinin yarısından fazlası, #SPX Endeksini geçemeyerek başarısız olmuştur.
3) #Pasif ya da #EndeksFonu şeklinde adlandırılan bu algoritmalar daha iyi performansları nedeniyle insanların yerini almaktadır.
Çünkü endeksi yenmek toplamı sıfır olan bir oyundur. Bir fon yöneticisi kazanırken diğeri seçimiyle endeksin altında getiri elde ederek kaybeder.
Çünkü endeksi yenmek toplamı sıfır olan bir oyundur. Bir fon yöneticisi kazanırken diğeri seçimiyle endeksin altında getiri elde ederek kaybeder.
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
Today's issue will be out tonight
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
Today's issue will be out tonight
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter (It will be out tomorrow)
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA #GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter (It will be out tomorrow)
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA #GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
1/
Visto che su Twitter ci sono espertoni che sanno già che l'inflazione avrà un ritorno di fiamma, che entreremo in recessione sicuramente e quindi i mercati andranno sicuramente verso il basso, porto un po' di dati e non i "secondo me".
Visto che su Twitter ci sono espertoni che sanno già che l'inflazione avrà un ritorno di fiamma, che entreremo in recessione sicuramente e quindi i mercati andranno sicuramente verso il basso, porto un po' di dati e non i "secondo me".
2/ Prima cosa da capire è che una pausa da parte della Fed NON è un Pivot.
Di pause ce ne sono state parecchie prima del pivot della Fed. Andiamo a confrontare #SPX come si è comportato durante le pause.
Pausa dopo rialzo dei tassi da Marzo 89 fino a Giugno 89. Mercato su.
Di pause ce ne sono state parecchie prima del pivot della Fed. Andiamo a confrontare #SPX come si è comportato durante le pause.
Pausa dopo rialzo dei tassi da Marzo 89 fino a Giugno 89. Mercato su.
3/ Da Marzo 95 fino a Luglio 98. Pausa dei tassi, marcato su.
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter (It will be out tomorrow)
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA #GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter (It will be out tomorrow)
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA #GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
The Bear's take:
•Recession is just around the corner
• Rates and valuations are high
• Geopolitical tensions
• Friday, stocks rise on low volume
• Earnings will be low
•China Covid shutdown hurt earnings
• Market is overbougth
• #VVIX is rising
#SPX #ES_F $SPX #options
•Recession is just around the corner
• Rates and valuations are high
• Geopolitical tensions
• Friday, stocks rise on low volume
• Earnings will be low
•China Covid shutdown hurt earnings
• Market is overbougth
• #VVIX is rising
#SPX #ES_F $SPX #options
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
• Inflation/Commodities/Oil/$ are ↓
• $DJI chart is very bullish. $DJT and $IWM also look good
•Up week on increasing volume
• $VIX and #DXY in strong donwtrend
•Breadth indicators are strong
•Positive divergence from CCI, RSI, ROC, Stochastics
The Bull's take
• Inflation/Commodities/Oil/$ are ↓
• $DJI chart is very bullish. $DJT and $IWM also look good
•Up week on increasing volume
• $VIX and #DXY in strong donwtrend
•Breadth indicators are strong
•Positive divergence from CCI, RSI, ROC, Stochastics
If you haven't read it
From our newsletter:
$DJI
"Last Friday it managed - just like the $DJT and $IWM - to make a solid upward breakout... did so on high volume... close above the 20, 50, 100 and 200DMA.
All indicates that this will most likely be the way forward for the #SPX"
From our newsletter:
$DJI
"Last Friday it managed - just like the $DJT and $IWM - to make a solid upward breakout... did so on high volume... close above the 20, 50, 100 and 200DMA.
All indicates that this will most likely be the way forward for the #SPX"
" #DJT made an excellent breakout and closed above 20 and 100DMA. It closed right at its 50DMA. Bullish action from a leading indicator. $DJT will have to surpass the conjunction of 50DMA and 200DMA next week, in order to validate more upward moves"
It did that yesterday
#ES_F
It did that yesterday
#ES_F
$QQQ
"A follow up rally is expected to allow it to break out of the Noise Box and break above at least the 20DMA.
On Monday it broke above the Noise Box, yesterday above the 20DMA, today above the 50DMA"
#QQQ #NDX #TradingSignals #bearmarket #SPX #ES_F #trading #SPX
"A follow up rally is expected to allow it to break out of the Noise Box and break above at least the 20DMA.
On Monday it broke above the Noise Box, yesterday above the 20DMA, today above the 50DMA"
#QQQ #NDX #TradingSignals #bearmarket #SPX #ES_F #trading #SPX
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter, it will be out later today
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA $GEX #GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading #options
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter, it will be out later today
Subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA $GEX #GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading #options
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Recession is around the corner
• Rates ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
•CPI is coming
• Bearish monthly engulfing candle on the main indexes
• Charts of market leaders are broken
•Bearish flag on the index charts
$ES_F $SPX $SPY #SPX #trading
The Bear's take:
•Recession is around the corner
• Rates ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
•CPI is coming
• Bearish monthly engulfing candle on the main indexes
• Charts of market leaders are broken
•Bearish flag on the index charts
$ES_F $SPX $SPY #SPX #trading
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
•Inflation/Commodities/Oil/ $DXY are ↓
• $DJI and $DJT broke above consolidation
•Higher volume on up days
• $VIX in strong donwtrend
• $VVIX broke below support, is at 2017 levels
•Positive divergence from classic indicators
•Breadth is +
#SPX
The Bull's take
•Inflation/Commodities/Oil/ $DXY are ↓
• $DJI and $DJT broke above consolidation
•Higher volume on up days
• $VIX in strong donwtrend
• $VVIX broke below support, is at 2017 levels
•Positive divergence from classic indicators
•Breadth is +
#SPX
$SPX has been trapped in a Noise Box for the past 14 days
As at other times patience pays: whichever side SPX breaks out of the box will be followed by a big move
A great trading opportunity
👁️👁️Volume has been higher on bullish days and SPX closed above 20DMA
#SPX #ES $SPY
As at other times patience pays: whichever side SPX breaks out of the box will be followed by a big move
A great trading opportunity
👁️👁️Volume has been higher on bullish days and SPX closed above 20DMA
#SPX #ES $SPY
