Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SPX

Most recents (24)

@dampedspring It may be a bit more than $3B Andy.

We're showing the following structure into the end-of week:…

What we think matters on Friday is that ITM call component, as it will continue to push flows upward. Image
@dampedspring ... but into Friday, there is a significant net positive flow that could capture more ITM puts, forcing them to OTM and positive flow, as well as capturing more ITM calls.… Image
@dampedspring What is most striking to us is the simple collapse of charm AFTER Friday.

The landscape for April is flat, relative to the charm surface of this week.

The contrast is quite evident.

Read 4 tweets
The anatomy of a successful $SPY trade in a choppy day like today:
A thread 🧵 #SPY #SPX
1a- Contextual understanding
#Macro level
I posted this last night. The rotation from tech to Financial sector was the intervening variable pushing spy & QQQ down. QQQ bottomed at $308 that's when $SPY started to move up:
1b- Knowing confluence levels, major points of interest, and support and resistance. I posted these last night for twitter super followers. Draw lines for yourself of price rejection and bounce for one week, the highs and the lows. Image
Read 6 tweets
Gold attempting to BREAKOUT of its second BIGGEST yearly defined base versus SPX.

Possible analog roadmaps with price & time targets.

8000$ in 2034
12000$ in 2033
21000$ in 2030

Overshoot on smaller time frames not included.

#gold #xauusd #spx #fintwit #inflation #recession
A couple of key observations.

You can't even see #gold's 2020 rally vs #spx, simply a wick, with a yearly close back below 0.50.

Also, note those extremely fast moves out of the gate, once yearly breakout is confirmed.
Major error on this #gold versus #spx chart...

I forgot the rocket ships!
Read 3 tweets
Somehow our pinned tweet disappeared, so here it is again

This is a thread with information we think valuable:

1) Our Compact Guide to Understanding #Gamma
2) $SPX $Gamma structure Cheat Sheet
3) Our Compact Guide to Options Strategies
4) 2023 Options Calendar... and more
Version 1.0 of the $SPX #Gamma structure cheat sheet.

Developed in partnership from
@TradeVolatility, great tools for great trades

#SPX #ES_F #options #Futures #trading #Daytrader #VIX #VVIX #Gamma $Gamma #GEX $GEX $SPX $SPY #SPY $QQQ #QQQ #NDX #NQ_F

Our Compact Guide to Options Strategies

According to the teachings of Sheldon Natemberg, 30 years Market Maker, Cboe Educator and author of the options Bible "Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques"

#SPX #ES_F #options #Futures #trading #VIX
Read 7 tweets

Renowned investors like Stanley Druckenmiller routinely monitor the performance of Cyclicals vs Defensives as a signal for #stocks, $SPY and #macro economy.

At HQ, we use the following monitor (chart). Whats it telling us now? a 🧵
2/ Lets focus on whats happened, before future expectations

The top panel of the chart shows the relative performance of Cyclical sectors over Defensive sectors ("CDR")

Panel 2 is the #SPX

Panel 3 is the Z-score of the 13 week move in the CDR with 2 std dev movements marked...
3/ The final panel (4) shows the rolling cumulative performance of the CDR mapped against HQ's leading economic leading index ("HQLEI", rolling 13 week chg).

From mid '21, the HQLEI fell for the first time in a yr & this preceded the CDR peaking in Nov 21, signaled by...
Read 10 tweets
HedgQuarters S&P500 EPS Forecast Model Update:

1/ In Oct 22 we released our S&P 500 multi factor earnings forecast model based on data releases up to Sept 22. Now with 4-5 months more data we have updated the model and highlight the interesting changes

$SPY $QQQ #macro #stocks
2/ As always we present 2 scenarios. With variable lags to the impact of rate hikes, these models map out 2 assumption sets:

A. the impact on FUTURE EPS of the latest leading econ data, by extending current settings of leading indicators into the future unchanged "STATIC MODEL"
3/ B. "RECESSION MODEL": the impact on future EPS of both current econ data and a forecast assumption set that maps out a possible recession scenario in the US (assumptions at end)

These 2 models allow investors to assess (1) what a recession may look like to earnings and
Read 17 tweets
1/ While there is a lot of speculation about "what happened" as we moved into the late afternoon session, we think it's pretty clear.

There was a tremendous amount of ITM call delta in the #SPX that was vaporizing, either through monetization or through the expiry...
2/ Here is the #SPX delta structure at 2:20 pm ET, with a link for you to interact with:…
3/ There is a significant amount of ITM call delta that is on the edge of that surface -- that's today's expiry.

Note the imbalance - little exists over on the put side of the graphic.

As many of you know, as we march through time, the ITM components grow...
Read 9 tweets
INTERPRETING THE CPI NOWCAST & how it works - a 🧵:

I, like many, have seen the rise in the CPI Nowcast over the last month & used it as a basis for expectations for Tuesday's #CPI release.

But how accurate is it at times like these. See chart:

#macro #inflation $SPY $QQQ #SPX
2/ The chart shows that as inflation rose, the Nowcast underestimated it and as it falls, theres been overestimation. Why?

Well the CPI Nowcast is based on an econometric model specified here:

I summarize how it works below and draw conclusions
3/ The Nowcast is computed from 3 core inputs, each of which is based on its own estimation process:

1. Core CPI Nowcast
2. Food CPI Nowcast
3. Gasoline CPI Nowcast

In simple terms, Core & Food are actually based on moving averages from the past 12 months of data...
Read 9 tweets
Have #Fed rate hikes led to the slowdown in #inflation we've seen so far?

That's the conventional wisdom anyway. BUT, the San Francisco Fed's own index actually says "NO"!

Why & implications. A thread...
#macro #Stocks #SPX $QQQ


This chart (YoY before & MoM below) breaks out Core PCE #inflation into cyclical & Acyclical components

Cyclical are those influenced by the eco cycle, Acyclical are those that have had a statistically insignificant relationship w/ past cycles

Cyclical inflation...

hasn't declined yet - at least on YoY basis with MoM measures only recently starting to cool. The real cooling so far has been in the Acyclical parts!

This is because, if you look at what heated up first and to the greatest extent in the first chart, it was typically...
Read 8 tweets
Yesterday a large put trade in ES traded. My clients had questions. This was my answer. Let's call it "Icahn 101" I answer these client questions all day long. This is my value add if I have any. Waitlist sign up at
Mid day today 24000 2/17 expiry 4050 strike options on ES were purchased from market makers. People have speculated it was Carl Icahn as his trading desk is well know to make agressive short term bets (usually selling options). The trade cost 30MN in premium on 4.8BN notional
The immediate implications of this trade when it printed was the need for Market makers who sold the put to short roughly 7200 futures contract worth roughly 1.5BN dollars. That caused the local low Image
Read 12 tweets
🚨Discorso di #Powell all'Economic Club di Washington🚨

Fra una ventina di minuti zio Powell tornerà a parlare dopo il recente #FOMC.

Seguiamo #live il discorso per capire se la #FED confermerà la sua posizione o se verrà in contro ai mercati

@crypto_gateway @GatewayMeme @CryptoMeme_Ita @MemeingBitcoin @AFTSDCrypto @hardrockcrypto @MarcheseCrypto @TradingonIt @BitCryptoRepost @financialjuice 2/ Prima di cominciare è molto interessante l'intervento di ieri di Bostic della FED:

"Se necessario si potrà rivalutare la possibilità di tornare ad almeno un rialzo di 50 bps."
Read 24 tweets
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here

For more info read our newsletter
Today's issue will be out in the morning

Subscribe for Free

#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ $DIj #trading #options #Futures

The Bear's take:

•Rates and valuations are high
•Looming recession
•Geopolitical tensions ↑
•Very Bearish Gravestone doji on Friday
•More rates coming
•Market is extremely overbougth
•Dollar is going ↑

#SPX #ES_F $SPX #options #trading #Futures $SPY $ES

The Bull's take

•Inflation/Commodities/Oil ↓
•SPX made a higher low and a higher high: Trend change
•Most charts are bullish
• $FAANG chart bullish
•All Breadth indicators are very strong
• $VIX, $VVIX still in strong donwtrend

#SPX #ES_F $SPX #options $SPY
Read 5 tweets
I got a little excited about the S&P500 going up each day lately.

I feel like I’m missing out, a guess like a @agnostoxxx’s monkeys.

So I consider buying some here. But what is it worth? I don’t know and nobody on CNBC wants to tell me.

1/n #SPX
So I decided to look at SPX like a giant American Corporation (let me call it “ACo”) with a market cap of US$33 trillion - genius, isn’t it?

At any one point, I can buy or sell ACo. Thereby the market offers me a price/share - currently US$ 4,410.

In return, I receive a value per share. Isn’t that how it works? Price is what I pay, value is what I get?

Read 12 tweets
After shorting the top at $69k

Longing the bottom at $16k

Im here to tell you that the market is once again, fkd.

$24,300 #bitcoin, 4205 #SPX top

I expected more out of this pump.

But unfortunately, I cannot ignore the signs in front of me.
VIX at 5 year support
UST 10 Year yield, triple bottom with bullish divergence
Read 9 tweets
#SPX $SPY Breadth Ratio update 🧵:

This situation continues to get more intriguing. After the rally the last 2 days, I expected this signal to be resoundingly rejected

But the % of stocks > their 20 day MA relative to those above 200 MA has fallen below 1... 1/4
$QQQ #stocks Image
2/4 Whats this really showing?

Individual components of the ratio shown below

An increasing % of #stocks are above their 200 MA as expected in a rally, but the % above their 20 MA is flat potentially presaging declining momentum of the rally...

$SPY $QQQ #SPX Image
3/5 When the % > 200MA is very high like now, but the % > 20 day MA starts to weaken, then we typically conclude the rally is in late stage and at risk

This may not be yet - as seen in orange the % > 20DMA can fluctuate at highs for a while. But given some weakening 2day...
Read 5 tweets
🧵 #FOMC Trade Thread 🧵

How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX

This strategy has made 60-140+ POINT MOVES in $SPX which equates to around $5-$15 Moves in $SPY ITSELF! 🚀
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
Read 10 tweets
1) #TheEconomist dergisinin güncel makalesini kısaca aktarayım:

2022'de hem hisse senedi hem de tahvil piyasasındaki düşüşler güvenli liman bulmayı zorlaştırmıştı. "İyi bir yıl." diyenlerse kayıpların yüzde 20'nin üzerine geçtiği bir ortamda tek haneli kayıplar yaşayanlardı.
2) Endeksten daha iyi getiri sağlama konusunda fon yöneticileriyle algoritmalar arasındaysa bu kez fon yöneticileri galip geldi.

2010 - 2021 aralığında, her sene fon yöneticilerinin yarısından fazlası, #SPX Endeksini geçemeyerek başarısız olmuştur.
3) #Pasif ya da #EndeksFonu şeklinde adlandırılan bu algoritmalar daha iyi performansları nedeniyle insanların yerini almaktadır.

Çünkü endeksi yenmek toplamı sıfır olan bir oyundur. Bir fon yöneticisi kazanırken diğeri seçimiyle endeksin altında getiri elde ederek kaybeder.
Read 7 tweets
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here

For more info read our newsletter
Today's issue will be out tonight

Subscribe for Free

$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
The Bear's take:

•Rates and valuations are high
•Looming recession
•FOMC: FED will be hawkish
•Geopolitical tensions are increasing
•Earnings will be low
•Macro enviroment is ugly
•Layoffs are increasing

#SPX #ES_F $SPX #options #trading #Futures #DayTrading $SPY $ES
The Bull's take

•Inflation/Commodities/Dollar are down ↓
•All indices are above their MA
•Tech leads and charts are bullish
• $FAANG and $TSLA charts are bullish
•Breadth indicators are strong
• $VIX, $VVIX and #DXY in strong donwtrend

#SPX #ES_F $SPX #options #trading
Read 5 tweets
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here

For more info read our newsletter (It will be out tomorrow)

Subscribe for Free

$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
The Bear's take:

•Rates and valuations are high
•Looming Recession
•Geopolitical tensions are increasing
•Earnings will be low
•Macro enviroment is ugly
•Layoffs are increasing

#SPX #ES_F $SPX #options #trading #Futures #DayTrading #scalping #odte $SPY $ES #VIX #VVIX

The Bull's take

•Inflation/Commodities/Oil/Dollar are down
•Techs are taking the lead again
• $FAANG chart is bullish
•Breadth indicators are strong
• $VIX, $VVIX and #DXY in strong donwtrend
•Positive divergence from CCI, RSI, ROC, Stochastics
Read 5 tweets
Visto che su Twitter ci sono espertoni che sanno già che l'inflazione avrà un ritorno di fiamma, che entreremo in recessione sicuramente e quindi i mercati andranno sicuramente verso il basso, porto un po' di dati e non i "secondo me".
2/ Prima cosa da capire è che una pausa da parte della Fed NON è un Pivot.
Di pause ce ne sono state parecchie prima del pivot della Fed. Andiamo a confrontare #SPX come si è comportato durante le pause.
Pausa dopo rialzo dei tassi da Marzo 89 fino a Giugno 89. Mercato su. Image
3/ Da Marzo 95 fino a Luglio 98. Pausa dei tassi, marcato su. Image
Read 13 tweets
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here

For more info read our newsletter (It will be out tomorrow)

Subscribe for Free

$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
The Bear's take:

•Recession is just around the corner
• Rates and valuations are high
• Geopolitical tensions
• Friday, stocks rise on low volume
• Earnings will be low
•China Covid shutdown hurt earnings
• Market is overbougth
#VVIX is rising

#SPX #ES_F $SPX #options

The Bull's take

• Inflation/Commodities/Oil/$ are ↓
• $DJI chart is very bullish. $DJT and $IWM also look good
•Up week on increasing volume
• $VIX and #DXY in strong donwtrend
•Breadth indicators are strong
•Positive divergence from CCI, RSI, ROC, Stochastics
Read 5 tweets
If you haven't read it
From our newsletter:
"Last Friday it managed - just like the $DJT and $IWM - to make a solid upward breakout... did so on high volume... close above the 20, 50, 100 and 200DMA.
All indicates that this will most likely be the way forward for the #SPX"
" #DJT made an excellent breakout and closed above 20 and 100DMA. It closed right at its 50DMA. Bullish action from a leading indicator. $DJT will have to surpass the conjunction of 50DMA and 200DMA next week, in order to validate more upward moves"
It did that yesterday


"A follow up rally is expected to allow it to break out of the Noise Box and break above at least the 20DMA.
On Monday it broke above the Noise Box, yesterday above the 20DMA, today above the 50DMA"

#QQQ #NDX #TradingSignals #bearmarket #SPX #ES_F #trading #SPX
Read 10 tweets
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here

For more info read our newsletter, it will be out later today

Subscribe for Free

$DIA $IWM #trading #options

The Bear's take:

•Recession is around the corner
• Rates ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
•CPI is coming
• Bearish monthly engulfing candle on the main indexes
• Charts of market leaders are broken
•Bearish flag on the index charts

$ES_F $SPX $SPY #SPX #trading

The Bull's take

•Inflation/Commodities/Oil/ $DXY are ↓
• $DJI and $DJT broke above consolidation
•Higher volume on up days
• $VIX in strong donwtrend
• $VVIX broke below support, is at 2017 levels
•Positive divergence from classic indicators
•Breadth is +
Read 5 tweets
$SPX has been trapped in a Noise Box for the past 14 days

As at other times patience pays: whichever side SPX breaks out of the box will be followed by a big move

A great trading opportunity

👁️👁️Volume has been higher on bullish days and SPX closed above 20DMA

We should look at the indices that have led the recent moves up and down: $DJI, $IWM, $DJT, #S5TH.

The #DJI has a more defined Noise Box. It broke out of it last Friday, and did so on higher volume, closing above 50DMA and 20DMA. Bullish, DJI should continue up on Monday
$DJT has as $DJI a more defined Noise Box. It broke out of it yesterday in higher volume, closing above 20DMA, and like $SPX rigth at the 50DMA

The general look of this chart is bullish short term, so a continuation rally is on the menu for next week

#DJT #XTN #DJI #DowJones
Read 5 tweets

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