1/ #heatpumps can help reducing imports of natural gas and CO2 emissions. But they also cause an increase in electricity consumption. We had a look how this plays out in the power sector. 🧵on our latest @DIW_Berlin_en #weeklyreport (first published in 🇩🇪) doi.org/10.18723/diw_d…
2/ What do #heatpumps do? They extract heat from the environment (usually from the air or the ground) and make it available for space heating at a higher temperature level. For this, they require some electricity.
3/ With our #opensource model #DIETER, we analyzed the power sector of the year 2030, using scenarios with different stocks of heat pumps: a reference with 1.7 mio, and three target scenarios with 3.9, 6.5 or 7.5 mio heat pumps.
4/ Compared to the reference, our most ambitious scenario "upper target +" contains 5.8 mio additional heat pumps. So our analysis covers a wide range of heat pump stocks from relevant German scenario studies, e.g. by @AgoraEW, @Der_BDI, @dena_news, @AriadneProjekt and @BMWK.
5/ Our electricity sector model #DIETER not only has a beautiful German name, but also a fairly detailed heat pump module. In addition, we consider the electricity demand of electric vehicles and electrolyzers. #opensource in this repo: gitlab.com/diw-evu/projec…
6/ We generally model a renewable share of 80% in overall electricity demand, but the additional electricity needed by heat pumps has to be covered by a 100% additional renewables. For onshore and offshore wind power, we assume expansion limits of 110 and 30 GW by 2030.
7/ Under these assumptions, the additional 5.8 mio heat pumps require an increase in the installed photovoltaic capacity of 37 GW, or 23%, by 2030. Further, some smaller capacity additions of gas turbines and battery storage are needed.
8/ This may be a slightly surprising result to some of you, as the seasonal demand profile of heat pumps better fits to wind power, cp. previous work by @OliverRuhnau and others. Yet, wind power already reaches the assumed 2030 expansion limits even without additional heat pumps.
9/ We find similar results for annual electricity generation. There is also a bit of additional wind power (while wind capacity remains constant), which would otherwise be curtailed. Generation from gas turbines and batteries also increases a bit, and electricity imports decrease
10/ The costs of electricity generation, which are minimized in our model, moderately increase compared to the reference, by about 295, 534, or 684 Euro per heat pump per year. Related to the space heating energy actually provided, electricity sector costs only increase slightly.
11/ Electricity sector costs only grow moderately because heat pumps are operated with some degree of temporal flexibility in our model. That is, they consume electricity in times of high renewable availability and low prices, when possible. Great graph (our editors loved it🤓)!
12/ In a sensitivity analysis, we relax the wind onshore capacity expansion limit. Then, additional heat pumps in fact trigger a wind power expansion - yet electricity sector costs decrease only slightly. That is, heat pumps can also be combined well with a PV capacity expansion.
13/ Assuming a really mean #Dunkelflaute week (7 days without any generation from Wind & PV in all countries), higher investments in PV and battery & long-duration electricity storage are needed. Also some coal capacity is added, but this is hardly used throughout the year.
14/ We further estimate the overall cost effect, also considering investment costs of heat pumps and saved fixed & variable costs of natural gas heating. #opensource calculations provided in a spreadsheet here: gitlab.com/diw-evu/projec…
15/ Compared to the reference, yearly overall costs slightly increase between 80 and 380 mio Euro. Yet assuming that natural gas prices remain high, overall costs *decrease* substantially cp. to the reference, by ~3.6 billion Euro in the most ambitious expansion scenario in 2030.
16/ At the same time, the consumption of natural gas decreases, by 113 TWh in the scenario „upper target +“. That corresponds to 15% of German natural gas imports from 🇷🇺 in the year 2021. #heatpumpsagainstputin
17/ Conclusion: In the ⚡️ sector, little is standing in the way of a heat pump transition - if we succeed with expanding renewables. But of course, there are other barriers, which policy makers should address with an ambitious and coordinated "Apollo programm" for heat pumps. 🚀
18/ This should include a design of taxes&charges that does not impede a prudent use of heat pumps, support of heat pump production capacity expansion, specialist training, regulatory measures, providing information&coordination offers, and financial support or financing models.
19/ This analysis was a real team effort of our group @TransEnerEcon, with a particularly large contribution by @roth_kohl 👍. Thanks also to co-authors @AdelineGueret, @d_kirc, @CarlosGaeteM & @KittelMartin as well as @CKemfert and @GunnarLuderer for helpful comments!👋
20/ Last, but not least: this @DIW_Berlin #weeklyreport is a product of the research project @AriadneProjekt. We gratefully acknowledge a research grant by @BMBF_Bund!
… ah, and not to forget: the underlying housing stock data projections were done in an earlier 🇪🇺 project by @ClausMichelsen 🙏
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