Thread by @AltstreetBet

So what happens when #BTC breaks below 19-20k and does a monthly close below it?
First, a reminder that this analysis is based on EW only and doesn't include Onchain/Moving averages/FA/equities/DXY .
Let's start with the Primary case where we don't close "monthly below 19k".

Market moves in 5 waves cycle.
On a linear scale:
Wave 1 was 2017 top(20k$),
wave 2 was 2018 bear market(3.2k$).
wave 3 was 2021-2022 top(69k$)
There is missing wave 4 and wave 5 here.
The current bear market seems to be a wave 4 correction.

As per EW wave 4 cannot break into wave 1 (19-20k$) . However, if there is no major candle close (on 2W or 1 Month scale) below 19-20k then we are okay it. Wave 4 wicks are allowed into wave 1 of highly leveraged markets.

If assumption is correct, then we will get wave 5 and #BTC should reach 70-90k before year 2024 . This will complete the 13 years bull market and we will observe long bear market (-80% crash) spanning 2-6 years.

Now , the next case when BTC does monthly close below 19k 👇

BTC doing monthly close below 19k, suggests 10 years bull market of #BTC is done as we will enter into wave 1 territory(19-20k) which breaks the 5 waves impulsive cycle.

Implies 10 year bull market ended at 69k(Wave 1 grand Cycle) and start of "wave 2" bear market.A 10 years of 5 wave impulse(0 to 69k$) would need least 3-4 years of wave 2 bear market ,which can also go beyond 6 years.

During these correction, you will see many bear market rallies which will ultimately lead to a longer correction. Bear market rallies will caught lot of people off guard in on and off positions.

A bear market rally will have btc going back to 40-45k or even 60k and followed by another severe crash towards 15k or below. The length of bear rally and crash will be decided by market.

Once wave 2 bear is done and #BTC "fundamentals" are still in place, we will see start of new cycle and wave 3 run where #BTC will be going beyond 200-300k .

Overall I am looking to play it both ways. Although I prefer my primary scenario a lot.
Also, I have looked at log scale chart of btc, it doesn't make much sense to me . Linear scale provides more clear structure.

Also, don't forget to like and retweet. 🫡

One last thing I want to add is that ETH and BTC have similar trend and cycle. Seeing that ETH broke into 2017 top makes me wary of my BTC primary case. However, I am still hopeful for primary. Monthly close below 1k for #ETH would also imply primary of BTC is invalid.