Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 – Jul 28 to Aug 03 –
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!
Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 – Western Europe
Peaking in #COVID19 epid. activ or landing in most places, with remaining medium to high mortality.
- Increase/plateau in UK (R-eff=1.14); SE=1.11/ AU=0.99; DE=0.98;
- (Slow) landing in (SP=0.97); DK; CH; ICL; PT; FR; LUX; IRL; BE; NO; NL; IT.

3/9 – East-Central Europe
- Surge in #COVID19 epid activ: Pol (R-eff=1.25); Rom=1.30; Russia=1.23; Serb=1.28; Latv=1.23; Lith=1.20;
- Rise/plateau in Bulg=1.19; Hung=1.19;Cz=1.14; Slovk=1.12/ Croat=1.04; Slovn=1.05; Alb=1.0;
- Very low to high mortality.

4/9 – Africa
- Landing towards its #COVID19 zone in Tunisia, with medium mortality
- Green everywhere else, but high level of underreporting.

5/9 – Middle-East
- Surge/increase in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Iran=1.29; Jordan=1.29/ Lebanon=1.07;
- Plateauing/landing in Qatar=1.01; Iraq=0.97; UAE=0.94/ Israel; Cyprus;
- Reported as safe elsewhere.

6/9 – Asia & Pacific
- Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Japan (R-eff=1.28); SK=1.24, low mort.
- Increase/plateau in Malaysia=1.07/ [Australia=1.02], very low [high] mort.
- (Slow) landing in (Taiwan=0.94); New Zealand, high mort.

7/9 – Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Most cities across China order on #COVID19 lockdowns (R-eff=1.13);
- Surge in Mongolia=1.48;
- Emerging #BA275 in India=1.04;
- Worrying (lack of) news from North Korea
- Apparently safe elsewhere.

8/9 – North America
- Canada (R-eff=1.13) is rising in #COVID19 epidemic activity, medium mortality. 87.7% >1 dose. Poor quality reporting from Provinces.
- USA=1.0 is plateauing, with medium mort. 79.4% >1 dose. Red everywhere, but orange in 3 states.

9/9 – Latin America
- Surge/rise in #COVID19 epid. activ.: Bolivia (R-eff=1.17); Costa-Rica=1.58/ Peru=1.15;
- Increase/Plateau/(slow) landing: Argentina=1.05/ Colombia=0.99; Mexico=0.94/ (Chile=0.97); Brazil; Belize;
- Very low - medium mort.

10/9 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 –
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0