Michael Kobs Profile picture

Aug 5, 2022, 16 tweets

#Yelenovka A few observations in the white noise of wild speculations: All the pictures I could find were taken from the northeast corner of the building (POV) and essentially show only the opposite side. The only exception is a remarkable photo by
@EvaKBartlett (upper left).

I have no doubt that [whatsoever] hit the roof on the SE corner (red arrows). The roof sheets are bent away from the center almost in a circle. The underlying structure of the beams is equally deformed and the white debris east of the apparent impact confirms this assumption.

No photo shows if and how much the adjacent building was damaged. The fact is, it was damaged because otherwise there would be no white rubble on that side of the building.

The photo by Eva Bartlett shows the area that is practically under the impact point. (WARNING VIOLENCE!)
The photo shows a burned body that was apparently forced through the spring bottom of his bed by the blast wave. This is not fire damage, which bent the steel ...

...of the springs to the point where the spring bottom fell apart, because the same heat would have burned the body far more. (Note that the body adapted to the damage in the knee joints, for example.) That is, the blast wave came practically vertically from above.

An interesting aspect is the frame in the E-wall, which is vertically below the impact. No glass visible, but the frame is undamaged. Imo, this circumstance can also only be explained by the fact that this frame was at right angles to the front of the blast wave.
Furthermore...

... this circumstance excludes a thermobaric expl., because the low-frequency pressure wave (by design) of a thermobaric expl. is reflected by walls/floors, travels back and forth and leaves a much greater destruction in all directions.

Taken together, this first says that Kiev's arguments about the absence of a crater and a thermobaric explosion inside are not confirmed (but contradicted) by the visual evidence. A crater would be expected only if [whatever] had hit the floor and exploded there.

Another interesting aspect is that even with a HIMARS (as with other missile HE warheads), the cloud of fragments spreads out around the explosion like a dougnut.
See the impacts of the fragments on the road surface and in the lamppost on the left.

Note also that the impacts in the lamppost are clearly visible due to the chipped paint, while no damage can be seen in the guardrail.

As a result, this means that a near-vertical or eastward leaning missile exploding at the level of the roof beams would leave no discernible fragment impacts in the lower part of the building and certainly not on its west side.

But it also means that the surrounding buildings must be no more devastated than this guardrail, the surface of which apparently defied the blast.
In this respect I warn against spreading any nonsense out of patriotism, which pleases one war party, but is confirmed by NOTHING.

Of course, you also have to ask yourself whether you want to follow a completely insane conspiracy theory, the premise of which is that Russian troops first collect HIMARS parts (somewhere far from the frontline) in order to blow up half of the POWs and save the other half.

Part of this conspiracy theory is the relocation of the POWs to a workshop allegedly prepared with a thermobaric charge. So it assumes several teams of accomplices who have had to work hard for maybe a week (and theoretically all have to be shot now.)

Also, let's remember that the same people who are now propagating this insane conspiracy theory basically always discredit any witnesses with first-hand knowledge up front because they're so scared they can never tell the truth.

+Important: It turns out that the Maxar satellite images were published upside down. So, the missile most likely hit at an angle either vertical or slanted towards west what explains the lack of fragmentation damage in the photos.
google.com/maps/place/47%…

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