Michael Kobs Profile picture
Aug 5, 2022 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
#Yelenovka A few observations in the white noise of wild speculations: All the pictures I could find were taken from the northeast corner of the building (POV) and essentially show only the opposite side. The only exception is a remarkable photo by
@EvaKBartlett (upper left). Image
I have no doubt that [whatsoever] hit the roof on the SE corner (red arrows). The roof sheets are bent away from the center almost in a circle. The underlying structure of the beams is equally deformed and the white debris east of the apparent impact confirms this assumption. Image
No photo shows if and how much the adjacent building was damaged. The fact is, it was damaged because otherwise there would be no white rubble on that side of the building. ImageImage
The photo by Eva Bartlett shows the area that is practically under the impact point. (WARNING VIOLENCE!)
The photo shows a burned body that was apparently forced through the spring bottom of his bed by the blast wave. This is not fire damage, which bent the steel ... Image
...of the springs to the point where the spring bottom fell apart, because the same heat would have burned the body far more. (Note that the body adapted to the damage in the knee joints, for example.) That is, the blast wave came practically vertically from above.
An interesting aspect is the frame in the E-wall, which is vertically below the impact. No glass visible, but the frame is undamaged. Imo, this circumstance can also only be explained by the fact that this frame was at right angles to the front of the blast wave.
Furthermore... Image
... this circumstance excludes a thermobaric expl., because the low-frequency pressure wave (by design) of a thermobaric expl. is reflected by walls/floors, travels back and forth and leaves a much greater destruction in all directions. Image
Taken together, this first says that Kiev's arguments about the absence of a crater and a thermobaric explosion inside are not confirmed (but contradicted) by the visual evidence. A crater would be expected only if [whatever] had hit the floor and exploded there.
Another interesting aspect is that even with a HIMARS (as with other missile HE warheads), the cloud of fragments spreads out around the explosion like a dougnut.
See the impacts of the fragments on the road surface and in the lamppost on the left. Image
Note also that the impacts in the lamppost are clearly visible due to the chipped paint, while no damage can be seen in the guardrail. Image
As a result, this means that a near-vertical or eastward leaning missile exploding at the level of the roof beams would leave no discernible fragment impacts in the lower part of the building and certainly not on its west side.
But it also means that the surrounding buildings must be no more devastated than this guardrail, the surface of which apparently defied the blast.
In this respect I warn against spreading any nonsense out of patriotism, which pleases one war party, but is confirmed by NOTHING. Image
Of course, you also have to ask yourself whether you want to follow a completely insane conspiracy theory, the premise of which is that Russian troops first collect HIMARS parts (somewhere far from the frontline) in order to blow up half of the POWs and save the other half. Image
Part of this conspiracy theory is the relocation of the POWs to a workshop allegedly prepared with a thermobaric charge. So it assumes several teams of accomplices who have had to work hard for maybe a week (and theoretically all have to be shot now.)
Also, let's remember that the same people who are now propagating this insane conspiracy theory basically always discredit any witnesses with first-hand knowledge up front because they're so scared they can never tell the truth. Image
+Important: It turns out that the Maxar satellite images were published upside down. So, the missile most likely hit at an angle either vertical or slanted towards west what explains the lack of fragmentation damage in the photos.
google.com/maps/place/47%… ImageImage

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More from @MichaKobs

Sep 14
#DRONES #POLAND ++
What's going on? A speculation.
I know of two ways to combat drones with electronic warfare.

1) GPS Jamming
A drone relies on GPS data received from satellites. These signals are weak but fairly reliable, as there are always several satellites in sight. ...
Jamming uses a strong local signal to mask the signals from the satellites. The aircraft chooses the strongest signal and suddenly receives data that appears to be in a completely different location or jumps around. Image
Of course, you quickly realize that the data is nonsense and can take countermeasures, e.g. using GPS sensors that compare the direction of different signals from different directions and suppress the obviously incorrect data. Image
Read 11 tweets
Sep 12
#DRONES #POLAND
The German newspaper FAZ claims, "NATO radar data shows, of course, that the drones were sent from Belarus to Poland, intentionally." Of course, no radar data was published. And conspiracy theorist Kiesewetter wants to attack Russia with Taurus again. Image
Image
It's nonsense. What really happened becomes somewhat clearer in the article in "Future Warfare" magazine. According to the article, the drones flew in from Ukraine and two "directly from Belarus."
fw-mag.com/shownews/687/r…Image
This is consistent with Ukrainian drone observations, although the drones that entered Polish airspace "directly from Belarus" only overflew Belarusian airspace, but came from Ukraine. Image
Read 15 tweets
Aug 28
#NordStream
The interesting detail in the further development of the Andromeda story is not Serhii, nor is it Yevhen. It is above all the avoidance of any questions about Poland's role. Image
...and, of course, time travel. After the attack on Turkstream failed on September 22, Yevhen U. traveled 1,200 km back in time with a trunk full of HMX to deliver it to Andromeda on September 19. No problems at the Polish border. Image
Image
Image
It should be noted that an attack on Turkstream with divers seems highly unlikely. The shallow areas lie within Russian and Turkish territory. Between them, Turkstream lies in the deep sea, up to 2,200 meters deep.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 7
Yesterday, BILD reported, “Russians bomb holiday camps – they don't even spare children playing.” What was striking about the overall reporting was that no one wanted to name the exact location or the weapon used. Image
REUTERS showed the same images but did not mention a holiday camp or children. WELT writes about a holiday camp but shows an archive photo from somewhere else. And SPIEGEL also writes about holiday camps, but shows an industrial plant. Image
Image
Image
Time for a little OSINT exercise. It is actually a holiday resort south of Zaporizhzhya on the northern shore of the Kakhovka Reservoir.
The front line is about 30 km away. Also 30 km away is the place from where the Ukrainian army has been shelling the ZNPP for years. Image
Read 20 tweets
Jul 23
MOST CYNICAL PRODUCTION
The IDF has officially released a video allegedly showing senior Hamas members eating bananas in a tunnel. And it is specifically stated that the fruits in colorful plastic bags are not from the “relief supplies”.
So where do they come from? Image
It is noticeable that nothing in the video points to “senior Hamas”, no weapons, uniform parts, headbands... and not even the usual logo.
It's not even a tunnel. The room 3 meters deep room has a flat ceiling and is open at the top. Image
There is no electricity and no fuel in Gaza, but the bright light is not sunlight. It's not parallel as sunlight always is. It comes from a spotlight to the right of the cameraman.
So "Hamas" has funny plastic bags and a loud generator running nearby? Think twice! Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 11
THE BANA SYNDROM
Has the world changed? Have we changed? Or are we simply experiencing the results of all our actions with frightening straightforwardness? Could anyone have predicted all this without being a Norstradamus?

Well, who remembers Bana? Image
Bana and her father were exactly what we supposedly fight against in Hamas - no, in every single Palestinian: militant Islamists. Image
Image
In this case, all the hate and terror was going in the right direction, our media loved it, and so we loved Bana. ....soooo badly. Image
Read 11 tweets

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