Thread by @AndrewPerpetua

My daily update! #ukrdailyupdate

Nothing especially exciting happened today, but there are a few things to talk about.

Speaking of which, if you would like to view the map, here is the link: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…

Around Kharkiv, Russia has not had much luck pushing south towards the city. Their offensive on this front is stalled, and they have suffered pretty serious casualties, especially to their special forces, which could take decades to recover.

As I have said before, I believe any future Russian offensive in this area will come from the east, not the north.

Speaking of north, north of the Ukrainian border in the Belgorod oblast of Russia, Russian forces pulled back a few dozen kilometers from Komsomolskii to Khokhlovo. Presumably to get out of range of HIMARS. These forces are now on the far side of Belgorod city.

There isn’t much news from the Izyum area. Russia launched a weak attack towards Bohorodychne, and it was repelled (1).

It appears both Russia and Ukraine have withdrawn forces from the Siversk area to deploy in other areas. Russia is pretending to take advantage of this by launching failed attacks towards Verkhnokamyanske (2).

We say “towards” because Russia still hasn’t captured all of Luhansk oblast and has to fight through Ukrainian forces to even reach Verkhnokamyanske.

There is heavy fighting in the Bakhmut area. In the north, Russia tried to send recon around Yakovlivka, but they were located and destroyed (3). They then sent an assault into the town, which failed (4).

Russia’s assault on the Knauf Gips factory in Soledar is ongoing (5). Ukrainian counter attacks in the factory have not been able to dislodge the Russian attackers.

Russia sent reconnaissance into Bakhmutske, but it was located and destroyed (6).

Russia tried to send reconnaissance into Bakhmut, but they were destroyed as well (8). Russia is continuing their assault on the outskirts of Bakhmut, supported by air power and artillery (7), they have made little, if any, progress..

A Russian assault into Zaitseve was repelled (9), as was the attack on Vershyna (10). There is ongoing fighting on the eastern outskirts of Kodema (11).

There is a lot of fighting and heavy artillery bombardments around Donetsk city.

Russia is attacking Krasnohorivka from the north (12). Russia wants to capture here and Pisky and build pincers to encircle the Avdiivka. So far their assaults on Krasnohorivka have all failed.

Russia’s assault directly towards Avdiivka is failing, as everyone expected (13). Russia is still trying to capture Pisky, and they have made little if any progress over the past few days (14).

Russia is still trying to attack north from Lozove, perhaps to support the attack on Pisky, but without success (15). Similarly, their attack on Marinka has accomplished nothing (16).

South of Donetsk, Russia assaulted Shevchenko (17). Up until now I thought this town was a gray area, but given that Ukraine managed to repel this attack, perhaps they have more control over the area than I gave credit for. I am keeping the area marked as a gray area, though.

In Zaporizhzhia, I see evidence of very heavy Ukrainian shelling of Russian positions (18). Ukrainian shelling of these areas has been going on for some time, and Ukraine’s successful counter battery fire is why they are able to move south from Orikhiv, Shcherbaky, and Kamyanske

As Ukrainian counter battery fire continues to excel and degrade Russia’s own artillery, Ukraine’s offensive capability will increase and we could see a more robust thrust south. Although I doubt we will see a large offensive.

Having said that, taking Tokmak is a significant priority for Ukraine. Their closest forces (not counting special forces or recon) are 24km north of Tokmak at the moment.

Here is an overview of the area between Melitopol (on the right) and Mykolaiv (on the left). I highlighted four missile strikes. Two of these are HIMARS attacks that occurred tonight (the blue).

The other two, as the color implies, are Russian strikes on themselves. Apparently they had some faulty missiles that nose dived shortly after launch and created large fires. A+ engineering.

Finally, here is the Kherson/Mykolaiv area. Around Kherson, Ukrainian forces, either jets or ground launchers of some sort, have been using HARM (anti radiation missiles) to destroy Russian radar. They have destroyed about a dozen and a half systems so far.

These American made missiles are capable of intelligently hunting down radar systems, and not only does this degrade Russia's air defense network, but their long range (100+km) threatens to leave all Russian forces in the Kherson area without air defense.

Obviously, without air defenses, Russian forces will become much more susceptible to all manner of other weapon systems ranging from rockets, missiles, jets and helicopters to drones and HIMARS. Granted, they haven't been able to stop HIMARS even with the radar.

Today, the USA announced an aid package to Ukraine that includes 75,000 rounds of artillery, HIMARS rockets, armored medical vehicles, anti tank weapons, and, I have heard, more HARM.