Karen Cutter Profile picture
Actuary. Australian. Receives no payment for Covid analysis. All views my own.

Aug 25, 2022, 14 tweets

The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 20 Aug came out today, and it looks pretty similar to last week.
A thread/
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Cases are down another 27% this week, and are now at a similar level to the trough before the BA.4/5 wave took off.

PCR testing is down, and so is the positivity rate. Good.

All age bands had big falls in case numbers, ranging from 20% (60+) to 32% (0-9s).

The average number of people admitted to hospital each day fell by 12-13%

While the number in hospital fell by 10% over the week

I thought it might be interesting to see if there was any change in the age mix of those who are admitted to hospital. The two pies split the data for the last 3 months roughly in half.
No material change.

Here is the same set of graphs, but broken down by vax status. The proportion admitted to hospital with 4+ doses is higher/3 doses is lower for the more recent pie - in keeping with more people getting their 4th vaccination.

170 deaths in the latest week.

Just less than half of the deaths were aged care residents.

Looking at deaths by vax status split between the two time periods, we again see the % with 4+ doses is higher/3 doses is lower for the more recent pie. The % of deaths that are unvaccinated (13-14%) is clearly much higher than the % of the population that is unvaccinated.

S gene target failure on a PCR test is indicative of either the BA.1, BA.4 or BA.5 variant, and is currently sitting at about 97% of cases. Genomic testing is showing no BA.1 circulating, and BA.5 still dominating.

Our flu season looks to be pretty much over for this year (touch wood), with no influenza B this year (touch wood again).

The end. Any questions?

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