Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Covid19Aus

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🧭 VIC LGA Monster wrap 👻(New!)

📍 1. VIC as 3 outbreaks - overview

📈 14-day change
North / West Melb: +215%
Rest of Metro: +247%
Regional: +31%

🤧 Cases (Today = Last 14 days)
North / West Melb: +606=5,946
Rest of Metro: +114=905
Regional: +19=126

#covid19vic #covid19aus
📍 2. North / West Melbourne - LGAs

📈 14-day change

Brimbank: 88%
Casey: 98%
Darebin: 20%
Hobsons Bay: -16%
Hume: 38%
Maribyrnong: 9%
Melton: 35%
Moonee Valley: 9%
Moreland: -14%
Whittlesea: 56%
Wyndham: 44%
🤧 Cases (+Net today = Last 14 days)

Brimbank: +45=294
Casey: +22=164
Darebin: +22=216
Hobsons Bay: +11=199
Hume: +260=2525 👈
Maribyrnong: +5=46
Melton: +29=249
Moonee Valley: +20=155
Moreland: +68=810
Whittlesea: +74=713
Wyndham: +50=575
Read 12 tweets
🧭Late-night NSW LGA monster wrap is back!👻

This one is proper late ... by 2 weeks!

To the loyal monster wrappers, pls forgive me 😭

It desperately needed improvements and automations (it was really manual)

Here's how it's improved ...

#covid19aus #COVID19Vic #COVID19nsw
1. I now think of NSW and VIC as 3 separate outbreaks each, so the wrap is built around that breakdown:

- High-growth regions / corridors
- Rest of metro
- Regional

Note, this means some of the 'LGAs of concern' have been separated into diff regions (e.g. Burwood > inner west)
2. 14-day change now included (%). I.e. the last 14 days compared with the previous (yes, small numbers might mean big % changes but still useful. Also, 0 cases in previous 14 days mean % change isn't possible. In this situation, there is a 👇 to see new cases below)
Read 26 tweets
Let's not forget that the Burnett Institute have form in this regard.

In their latest politically-charged press release, they claim that their modelling 'shows' [sic] that curfews, along with several other dubious NPIs, have "worked to halt the rise in cases".

Here we go.../
Their data does no such thing. It 'shows' that those interventions occurred on the August 23rd, and there was a change in R(eff) that occurred approx. 6 days later.

To suggest that the first caused the second is a classic 'post hoc ergo propter hoc' fallacy.

Not their first/
Remember this doozy?…

In it, Crabbe et al. reported mandatory outdoor mask mandates 'was associated with' a significant change in trajectory of the Melbourne outbreak, and support[ed] 'the use of masks for controlling epidemics in the broader community'./
Read 26 tweets
#auspol #covid19aus the weaponisation of Delta. A long thread on how political strategists have used Delta to re-energise the 'live with the virus' strategy, in Australia. Most political strategy happens where the public never sees it, but it happens every single day. /1
It's important to first note that from Day 1 of the pandemic, there have been 2 competing political approaches towards it. One the traditional Australian way, of allowing our public health institutions to manage the outbreak. The other the 'live with the virus' idea. /2
As soon as the pandemic began, the PM established a National Cabinet, almost certainly to deal the federal government into the pandemic conversation, where it has very little constitutional role. States manage most public health activity. /3
Read 25 tweets
Up to 75% of the businesses some plan to save by ‘opening up’ would have failed anyway, inside 5 years, even without the pandemic. The ‘Economy’ isn’t a thing, we need to stop talking about it as if we’re living ‘in’ an economy. /1 #auspol #covid19aus
The Economy began only as a measure of national income. Talking about it as ‘the Economy’ makes as much sense as describing your family as ‘our weekly income’. Somebody who talks about ‘the Economy’ is really only describing the income going to successful people. /2
This is all quite deliberate. By inventing this statistical homunculus as a substitute for society, conservatives can bypass all of the usual social and political problems, in favour of a handful of statistical indicators. Indicators that are themselves…/3
Read 4 tweets
1/ Here I go… ranting again.

“In my opinion, the problem with Leigh Sales, and journalists in general”.

2/ When the current NSW outbreak began in June, Leigh Sales went on a pre planned holiday. 730 started reported rising cases every episode and balancing stories concerning the seriousness of the disease with those examining the impact of lockdowns.
3/ Sales returned many weeks later, interviewed the NSW Premier after her failure to contain the virus, but was meek in holding her to account.
Read 29 tweets
So many numbers swirling around this weekend about NSW hospitalisation rates

3 big questions:

1. What on earth is the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

2. How is it calculated?

3. Should Hospital In The Home (HITH) be included?

Let's go into the weeds🌱

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
Q1 - What's the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

The NSW Surveillance Report now tells us this in black and white (it just added this new piece of info last week)

In the most recent report (data to Aug 21), it says it's 11%

Two things to know about this ...
i) Think of it as 'at least 11%' b/c it doesn't account for the lag between new cases and hospitalisations. The report itself acknowledges this

ii) Dr Jeremy McAnulty confirmed yday this rate *DOES NOT* include HITH (sorry for the caps, but that's important)
Read 17 tweets
A few #COVID19Aus things to analyse from this week. What has actually changed?? Because some who say open it up, “everyone for themselves” - they are crowing about a victory esp Murdoch press. Is that correct?

1. I am noting this week’s focus on Victoria & CovidZero. Yet CovidZero and elimination (Reff <1) are not the same thing, esp. when we have vaccines. CovidZero was coined in Aus and has been a useful shorthand to explain the best public health goal before widespread vaccination.
2. With widespread vaccination, CovidZero and elimination appear to diverge. This is NOT because the goal of reducing preventable hospitalisation and death has changed. The goal remains/ is the same.
Read 17 tweets
'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic
Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar 🤓
It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories

Israel -
Read 9 tweets
🧭NSW LGA monster wrap 👻 Cases
👍 = progress
👈 = big % changes + unlinked cases

⚫️ State wrap

🦠Cases - Last 14 days, +today
📍 12 LGAs of Concern: 10734, +932
📍 Western NSW: 582, +31
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1515, +27
📍 Hunter New England: 44, +6

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
📍 Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
📍 Southern NSW: 3,+0

🔎Under Investigation - Total, +today
📍 12 LGAs of Concern: 10872,+645
📍 Western NSW: 368,+9
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1122,+41
📍 Hunter New England: 78,+1
📍 Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
📍 Armidale/Northern Rivers: 1,+0
📍 Southern NSW: 2,-1
Read 23 tweets
1/ The LNP have hijacked the conversation regarding The National Plan to Transition Australia’s COVID19 Response. I wanted to keep track of the propaganda & myths surrounding it.

#covid19aus Image
2/ MYTH: “The plan says that we must lift all lockdowns at 70% (phase b)”.

TRUTH: The plan includes the possibility of lockdowns at both 70% & 80% (phases b & c).
3/ MYTH: “The plan states that all border closures must cease at 70% (phase b).”
Read 11 tweets
NSW Premier said today the rate of hospitalisation is about 5.5%. She has previously said it was about 5%

Either way, this is artificially low because of the way NSW defines active cases

Short 🧵- 1/6

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus
Today, NSW reports 17,999 active cases

That's the sum of approx. last *30 days* of cases

There are 871 people in hospital

= 4.8% hospitalisation rate

In contrast ...

VIC reports 841 active cases today

That's the sum of approx. last *13 days* of cases

There are 52 people in hospital

= 6.2% hospitalisation rate

Read 6 tweets
Just when I was about to have a whinge about lack of data this weekend @datansw came through with the goods at about 6pm

That means ...

🧭 It's the NSW LGA Monster Wrap 👻

Chart - LGAs of concern v Rest of Syd / NSW
*Yellow ~28 days behind blue*

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

📍 12 LOCS: 9222, +1126, +746
📍 Western NSW: 513, +49, +21
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1285, +188, +95
📍 Hunter New England: 72, +7, +3
📍 Mid/North Coast: 2, 0, 0
📍 Southern NSW: 2, 0, 0
📍 Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 0 last 14 days 👍
🔎Under Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

📍 12 LOCS: 8756, +770, +668
📍 Western NSW: 295, +17, +11
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 945, +106, +72
📍 Hunter New England: 74, +6, +0
📍 Mid/North Coast: 1, 0, 0
📍 Southern NSW: 1, 0, 0
📍 Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, 0, 0
Read 25 tweets
Comparisons between current outbreaks in NSW and VIC - by request

1. Outbreak sum
2. Daily cases
3. Unlinked cases
4. Wilds

Note - VIC's July / Aug outbreaks separated into Delta 1 (pink) and Delta 2 (purple)

1. Outbreak sum -

#covidvic #covid19vic #covid19aus
Note re starting points -
Above = index case
All charts below = 10 local cases in one day

2. Daily cases -

3. Unlinked cases ('mystery' cases allocated unknown source + cases under investigation) -

Read 10 tweets
🧭 Late-night NSW LGA monster wrap 👻

Watch 👀
Note 👈
Progress 👍

🦠Cases show: Last 14 days, +today
🔎Under Investigation shows: Total, +today

#COVID19nsw #covid19aus
📍 State wrap


12 LGAs of Concern: 7984, +699
Western NSW: 483, +48
Rest of Greater Sydney: 1080, +123
Hunter New England: 85, +1
Mid/North Coast: 2, +0
Southern NSW: 2, +0
🔎Under Investigation

12 LGAs of Concern: 7318, +423
Western NSW: 267, +33
Rest of Greater Sydney: 393, +40
Hunter New England: 68, +2
Mid/North Coast: 2, +0
Armidale/Northern Rivers: 2, +0
Southern NSW: 1, +0
Read 19 tweets
Mark McGowan was pretty clear this evening that he expects virus free WA, QLD, SA, Tas and the NT will maintain their border restrictions if they're covid-free when Australia reaches the 70% vaccination target. #auspol
Earlier today, the Queensland deputy premier Steven Miles specifically credited the borders for eased restrictions eg dancing and standing at pubs.
Miles: "Border restrictions are critical to us continuing to have kinds of freedoms we have and people in other cities and states can only dream of."
Read 5 tweets
Perhaps the best summary yet of the importance of airborne transmission for COVID and respiratory pathogens more generally. Extraordinarily clear & powerful. Implications are enormous #Covid19Aus 1/

Airborne transmission of respiratory viruses | Science…
“Additional measures must be implemented for mitigating aerosol transmission …, with particular attention to ventilation, airflows, air filtration, UV disinfection, and mask fit. These interventions are critical tools for ending the current pandemic.” 2/
The significance in fully embracing mitigating airborne transmission is that the better we do this, the lower the vax rate to re-open. It’s not overstating things to say we need a #VentilationRevolution for COVID. It’s the major missing link in the ‘plus’ in #VaccinesPlus. 3/end
Read 3 tweets
🧭 NSW LGA monster wrap 👻

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +today)

📍 12 LOCs: 7625, +873
📍 West NSW: 449, +39
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 999, +96
📍 Hunter New England: 91, +1
📍 Mid/Nth Coast: 2, +0
📍 Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, +0
📍 South NSW: 2, 0

#COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus
LHDs -
1/ Image
🔎Under Investigation (Total, +today

📍 12 LOCs: 6895, +580
📍 West NSW: 234, +16
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 681, +54
📍 Hunter New England: 66, +0
📍 Mid/Nth Coast: 1, +0
📍 Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, +0
📍 South NSW: 1, +0

📍 12 LGAs of Concern

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +today)

Cumberland: 1827, +226 👀
Canterbury-Bankstown: 1534, +150
Blacktown: 1302, +130 👀
Liverpool: 660, +100 👀
Penrith: 636, +64
Fairfield: 635, +73
Parramatta: 341, +43
Campbelltown: 296, +37
Bayside: 159, +24

3/ Image
Read 18 tweets
Great questions on #thedrum put to Prof Lewin. She confirms that once we are at 70-80% vaccination, whether we start off with 30 cases, or 100's of cases, we're in essentially the same situation. 'We're catching the same curve, just getting to the peak quicker', to paraphrase.
She's pretty clear on this. @bairdjulia asked the question a few times to confirm.
Re kids: Prof states modelling examined benefits of targeting different population w/vaccinations, and impact on transmission/hosp/deaths. 20-29, big pay off. 12-15's not as much. Affirms they SHOULD be vaccinated. But modelling says it shouldn't impact opening up plans.
Read 16 tweets
#auspol #covid19aus #covid19nsw the key elements from the Doherty Report which are not being prosecuted daily in NSW press conferences. For those who don't understand it or are too lazy to read it, which appears to be most political journalists. /1
The report models degree of public health restrictions (PHSM) required to maintain hospital capacity, at different levels of vaccination for those aged 16 and above. It uses 4 categories of restriction - baseline, low, medium and high. /2
It also models two strengths of test, trace, isolate and quarantine (TTIQ): partial, and optimal. Partial when case numbers are high and compromise the ability to TTIQ. Optimal when case numbers are low enough to allow maximally effective TTIQ. /3
Read 13 tweets
#covid19aus #auspol the Doherty Report modelled vaccination of those aged 12+ only as a ‘thought experiment’. Not because the Doherty people are bastards, but because National Cabinet specifically excluded anybody below 16 in Doherty’s scope of work. /1
Note that the same National Cabinet has now requested updated modelling based on massive case numbers, which the original report said would invalidate most of their findings. No updating though to incorporate health effects on children. /2
The report is appallingly written, an alphabet soup of jargon and passive-voiced prose. You couldn’t have designed a document better to prevent scrutiny. I doubt National Cabinet members understood half of it. /3
Read 4 tweets
🧭 NSW late-night LGA monster wrap 👻 (bumper Fri / Sat edition)

👈= of note
👀= watch closely
👍 = progress


#covid19nsw #covid19aus
⚫️ State wrap

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Fri, +Sat)
12 LGAs of concern: 5390, +543, +651
Western NSW: 237, +29, +50
Rest of Greater Sydney: 674, +56, +108
Hunter New England: 139, +1, +1
Armidale / Northern Rivers: 4, +0, +0
Mid-North Coast: 4, +2, +1
Southern NSW: 2, +0, +1

🔎 Under Investigation (Total, +Fri, +Sat)
12 LGAs of concern: 4498, +332, +480
Western NSW: 121, +13, +28
Rest of Greater Sydney: 447, +36, +65
Hunter New England: 63, +0, -1
Armidale / Northern Rivers: 1, +0, +0
Mid-North Coast: 2, +0, +1
Southern NSW: 1, +0, -1

Read 20 tweets
I've been wanting to look at some relevant data behind the new NSW restrictions

1. Tougher measures in LGAs of concern
2. Surveillance testing scrapped
3. Mandatory outdoor masks
4. Permits for authorised workers in LGAs of concern

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #sydneyprotest
1. Tougher measures in LGAs of concern (includes curfew and 1-hr exercise limit)

A few of us have been trying to show the huge Covid burden in certain communities for a while

Here's a new attempt. This chart shows daily cases in each LGA as a percentage of total cases that day
The big yellow one is Fairfield, Cumberland is purple, Canterbury-Bankstown is green

Below, all 12 LGAs of concern are removed

You can see in the last 5 weeks, they've accounted for about 90% of NSW cases (changed a bit recently - orange top right is Dubbo)
Read 12 tweets
@busyparamedic1 @lbobrien @sallymcmanus Yes (or better). Delta being much more transmissible means that a cloth or surgical mask isn’t good enough anymore. If you’re working with someone for a full day, even both wearing N95’s may not be good enough (unless fit-tested). #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus
@busyparamedic1 @lbobrien @sallymcmanus This is a good study on SARS2 in exhaled aerosols by @Don_Milton. We absolutely must address aerosol transmission as a matter of urgency everywhere we can (need better masks, ventilation, HEPA filters) cc @greencate @RyanPark_Keira #COVID19nsw #nswpol
@busyparamedic1 @lbobrien @sallymcmanus @Don_Milton @greencate @RyanPark_Keira The study was done on the Alpha variant. Even more important to have better fitting masks/respirators with Delta.
Read 3 tweets

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