Thread by @emilkastehelmi

Kherson counterattack - What's happening? Continuous updates with latest information 1/🧵

Hersonin vastahyökkäys - mitä tapahtuu? Päivittyvä ketju, normaalista poiketen englanniksi. 1/🧵

Background: Over the last few weeks, Ukraine has been shelling the bridges over Dniepr and Inhulets. It has also destroyed many Russian military targets in the rear areas. Despite the difficult logistical situation, Russia has concentrated more troops in the Kherson direction. 2/

There have been rumors about an upcoming Ukrainian counterattack to liberate Kherson. First of all - does liberating Kherson mean liberating the city, the oblast or the area over the Dniepr? I'd say the main objective is to push the Russians to the southern side of the river. 3/

However, Russians are controlling a significant land areas. Liberating all the cities and villages will not be an easy task. Ukraine has conducted smaller counterattacks before, in which they've progressed village by village. No large or decisive offensives have been seen. 4/

Some sources say that Ukraine might not yet have the ability to liberate Kherson. The current attacks could also be hurried because of the political situation - Ukraine may want to show that it can do serious damage to the Russians on the ground too. 5/

At this point we can't yet say, what the exact objectives of this offensive are. Different sources are indicating that Ukraine is attacking at a rather wide front, and Ukrainian officials are indeed confirming that an attack is taking place. 6/

Remember that videos from random single soldiers don't tell very reliable information from the frontlines. For example massive damage on a platoon level may seem catastrophical from his perspective, but he probably does not have a comprehensive picture of the events unfolding. 7/

Explosions in Nova Kakhovka during the day. Not something totally unique, but fits the overall situation. 8/

Ukraine attacking in the Visokopillya direction. Fighting around the town isn't a new thing - that's happened before. There were even rumors about an encirclement some weeks ago, which turned out to be false. Sadly many people fell for the #RUMINT. 9/

Both sides are reporting Ukrainian advance towards the village of Sukhyi Stavok. No geolocated pictures or videos yet, though.

The attack is coming from the Inhulets bridgehead. Ukraine has fought in the area before also, but at that time the Russians pushed Ukraine back. 10/

Adviser to the Head of the Office of Zelenskyy also gives some hints. He seems positive on the outcome. The fog of war makes OSINT difficult, as the Ukrainians have proven to be pretty great at OPSEC, especially at the Southern front.

CNN reports that Ukraine has liberated four towns: Tomyna Balka (1), Pravdyne (2), Nova Dmytrivka (3) and Arkhanhel's'ke (4). Also Sukhyi Stavok (5) has been reported as liberated.

I'm especially doubtful about Tomyna Balka. 12/

edition.cnn.com/europe/live-ne…

Maybe Tomyna Balka could have been confused with Zolota Balka, which is here.

Anyway, concrete proof is still missing as the fighting is going on - only Sukhyi Stavok has been confirmed by both Ukrainians and Russians. 13/

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not mention any Southern progress in their evening update. Instead it says that the Russians tried to attack Potomkyne, next to Vysokopillia. Usually they're very vague about the South anyway, so this isn't that significant. 14/

Various pro-Russian channels are claiming attacks in these directions around the Mykolaiv-Kherson-highway. According to them, Ukraine got into Pravdyne and Kyselivka, but they were pushed back.

As usual, no proof has been presented (not surprising with pro-Rus channels). 15/

This morning I halted my tweets for some hours, so that any possibility of breaching OPSEC would be eliminated. Everything I'm posting are from open sources.

The day started with sounds of fighting near the city of Kherson. Not only artillery, but also small arms fire. 16/

This video has been going around as proof of Russians running away from their positions in Kherson. In reality, it's a video of Russian troops advancing in Pisky area. There's a lot of possible misinformation going around, as actual material from the counterattack is rare. 17/

After 3 days of fighting, we are seeing the first geolocated material of the results. Ukraine has reached Arkhanhel's'ke, or at least the northern parts of the town. 18/

Our OSINT-team also has reasons to believe that Ukraine may have forced the Russians out of Liubomyrivka and Ternovi Pody. This is, however, unconfirmed at this point. It seems that the Russians have experienced some setbacks, but have been able to hold most of the line. 19/

Interestingly, unconfirmed pro-Russian sources are claiming that Ukraine is widening it's bridgehead and is heading towards Bruskynske. If Bruskynske gets liberated and the road is cut, the logistical situation will get even more difficult for the Russians. 20/

Something you haven't seen before: Here's an assessment of possible Russian defense lines in the Herson area. Not fully accurate, but gives a good overview of the situation. Made by @J_JHelin and @EerikMatero from our OSINT team. 21/