Kherson counterattack - What's happening? Continuous updates with latest information 1/🧵
Hersonin vastahyökkäys - mitä tapahtuu? Päivittyvä ketju, normaalista poiketen englanniksi. 1/🧵
Background: Over the last few weeks, Ukraine has been shelling the bridges over Dniepr and Inhulets. It has also destroyed many Russian military targets in the rear areas. Despite the difficult logistical situation, Russia has concentrated more troops in the Kherson direction. 2/
There have been rumors about an upcoming Ukrainian counterattack to liberate Kherson. First of all - does liberating Kherson mean liberating the city, the oblast or the area over the Dniepr? I'd say the main objective is to push the Russians to the southern side of the river. 3/
However, Russians are controlling a significant land areas. Liberating all the cities and villages will not be an easy task. Ukraine has conducted smaller counterattacks before, in which they've progressed village by village. No large or decisive offensives have been seen. 4/
Some sources say that Ukraine might not yet have the ability to liberate Kherson. The current attacks could also be hurried because of the political situation - Ukraine may want to show that it can do serious damage to the Russians on the ground too. 5/
At this point we can't yet say, what the exact objectives of this offensive are. Different sources are indicating that Ukraine is attacking at a rather wide front, and Ukrainian officials are indeed confirming that an attack is taking place. 6/
Remember that videos from random single soldiers don't tell very reliable information from the frontlines. For example massive damage on a platoon level may seem catastrophical from his perspective, but he probably does not have a comprehensive picture of the events unfolding. 7/
Explosions in Nova Kakhovka during the day. Not something totally unique, but fits the overall situation. 8/
Ukraine attacking in the Visokopillya direction. Fighting around the town isn't a new thing - that's happened before. There were even rumors about an encirclement some weeks ago, which turned out to be false. Sadly many people fell for the #RUMINT. 9/
Both sides are reporting Ukrainian advance towards the village of Sukhyi Stavok. No geolocated pictures or videos yet, though.
The attack is coming from the Inhulets bridgehead. Ukraine has fought in the area before also, but at that time the Russians pushed Ukraine back. 10/
Adviser to the Head of the Office of Zelenskyy also gives some hints. He seems positive on the outcome. The fog of war makes OSINT difficult, as the Ukrainians have proven to be pretty great at OPSEC, especially at the Southern front.
CNN reports that Ukraine has liberated four towns: Tomyna Balka (1), Pravdyne (2), Nova Dmytrivka (3) and Arkhanhel's'ke (4). Also Sukhyi Stavok (5) has been reported as liberated.
Maybe Tomyna Balka could have been confused with Zolota Balka, which is here.
Anyway, concrete proof is still missing as the fighting is going on - only Sukhyi Stavok has been confirmed by both Ukrainians and Russians. 13/
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not mention any Southern progress in their evening update. Instead it says that the Russians tried to attack Potomkyne, next to Vysokopillia. Usually they're very vague about the South anyway, so this isn't that significant. 14/
Various pro-Russian channels are claiming attacks in these directions around the Mykolaiv-Kherson-highway. According to them, Ukraine got into Pravdyne and Kyselivka, but they were pushed back.
As usual, no proof has been presented (not surprising with pro-Rus channels). 15/
This morning I halted my tweets for some hours, so that any possibility of breaching OPSEC would be eliminated. Everything I'm posting are from open sources.
The day started with sounds of fighting near the city of Kherson. Not only artillery, but also small arms fire. 16/
This video has been going around as proof of Russians running away from their positions in Kherson. In reality, it's a video of Russian troops advancing in Pisky area. There's a lot of possible misinformation going around, as actual material from the counterattack is rare. 17/
After 3 days of fighting, we are seeing the first geolocated material of the results. Ukraine has reached Arkhanhel's'ke, or at least the northern parts of the town. 18/
Our OSINT-team also has reasons to believe that Ukraine may have forced the Russians out of Liubomyrivka and Ternovi Pody. This is, however, unconfirmed at this point. It seems that the Russians have experienced some setbacks, but have been able to hold most of the line. 19/
Interestingly, unconfirmed pro-Russian sources are claiming that Ukraine is widening it's bridgehead and is heading towards Bruskynske. If Bruskynske gets liberated and the road is cut, the logistical situation will get even more difficult for the Russians. 20/
Something you haven't seen before: Here's an assessment of possible Russian defense lines in the Herson area. Not fully accurate, but gives a good overview of the situation. Made by @J_JHelin and @EerikMatero from our OSINT team. 21/
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Russia’s operation on the northern side of Kharkiv has lasted over six weeks. There have been serious difficulties at both operational and strategic level.
While the offensive is stuck, satellite images show the Russians have begun fortifying the newly occupied areas. 1/🧵
The Kharkiv operation had three probable goals:
1. Create confusion and tie Ukrainian reserves to a secondary direction, so that progress could be made elsewhere
2. Form a “buffer zone” between Belgorod and Ukraine
3. Possibly get parts of Kharkiv within artillery range
2/
Russia was able to tie some Ukrainian forces to Kharkiv, but it wasn’t able to exploit the initial momentum elsewhere on the front. In this situation, Russia has to divide its forces and spend manpower on a less important area, while progress is slow everywhere. 3/
Here in Finland, the last 24 hours have been geopolitically unusual.
Reports from Russia suggested a unilateral desire to modify their maritime borders in the Gulf of Finland and near Kaliningrad. The Finnish government learned about this through the media. 1/🧵
The government tried to get more information, as the Russians didn't inform Finland.
Suddenly, Russia reversed its previous stance, and there was no more ambitions to check or move the borders. The Finnish politicians assured that there's no drama involved. However... 2/
This incident needs to be put into context. Why did Russia suddenly do this?
Russia is a dictatorship that views Finland as a hostile country. In the recent years, it has conducted several operations against Finland, aiming to undermine security or societal functions. 3/
The Kharkiv offensive has been ongoing for a week. Russia had some initial success, but Ukraine has been able to restrain Russian forces from advancing deeper.
There are many narratives and claims surrounding the situation. First, why was Russia able to advance so quickly? 1/
"Digital scanning" of the border area is almost continuous. The Russian air reconnaissance, electronic warfare and strike teams and are active in many areas. This made it difficult for Ukraine to prepare heavy defences or to concentrate a large amount of troops at the border. 2/
For Ukraine, the reasonable option was to use the depth to their advantage, as they did. A few kilometres from the border, the Russians can rely less on prepared positions and other infrastructure on Russian territory, and they have to bring their supporting elements forward. 3/
One of the most significant current battles in Ukraine is taking place in the small city of Chasiv Yar.
In this thread, I will analyze the current situation, defensive preparations, terrain, participating units, various scenarios and future developments. 1/
Chasiv Yar is an important city. It’s the last somewhat larger built area before the crucial crossroads town of Kostiantynivka and other important cities in Donetsk. Encircling the city is difficult, as the Donets-Donbas canal forms a difficult obstacle for mechanized units. 2/
Ukraine has constructed several layers of trenches and other defensive positions north and south of Chasiv Yar. Even if the Russians managed to cross the canal at some point, they would still need to break through multiple fortified positions to seriously threaten the area. 3/
Russian Telegram channels are flooding with videos of a terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, a music venue Moscow.
The video material suggests that there were at least four attackers, some sources say five. They were armed with fully automatic AK-type assault rifles. 1/
The building was set on fire during the attack. According to Ria Novosti, a Russian state media, the "fire is getting stronger". This means confirming the amount of dead and injured may take a while. 2/
The third year of the Russian full-scale invasion begins, and Ukraine is facing multiple difficulties. There's no room for optimism, as many problems can’t be solved in the coming months.
In this thread: Issues, threats and the future. 1/
While Ukraine was on the offensive in 2023, Russia silently amassed significant forces. Since mid-October, Russians have been attacking on multiple fronts. At the same time, Ukraine faces both external and internal challenges. Let’s start with the Ukrainian problems. 2/
Ukraine experienced unfortunate losses in 2023. The summer offensive was costly, but it didn’t reach any strategic goals. After the summer, the losses were increasingly difficult to fully replace. The military leadership likely saw the incoming problems. 3/