Showing a simple data analysis, mainly OI/COI analysis to show how I pick up direction from OI. This pic is of COI ( cumulative OI of 3 months added) of BNF. See that huge COI buildup yesterday. OI = net longs = net shorts at end of day. Question is, who is winning ?
At close today, prices are
1. below today"s vwap
2. below yesterday's vwap
3. below 1SD of vwap of yesterday
4. below 1SD of vwap of today
Now I have two anchored VWAPs plotted , an anchored vwap is a vwap which continues from a particular price point. Here we have the RED avwap from start of this weekly expiry, the blue one from yesterday opening ( remember the huge COI addition yesterday)
If you see the AVWAP from yesterday morning, the COI which was there now means longs are trapped ( since below avwap, shorters are getting money). If you see the AVWAP of this expiry, we already had 3 tests, generally the next breaks thru this avwap.
Targeting has a logic. Whatever price the instrument went above the avwap, same distance can be achieved on the downside. Which brings the target to 39400.
So, our trade on Sentient was a bear spread :
Buy 39800PE and sell 39400PE, debit=maxloss=160, max profit 240.
This was the chart shared with #sentient members at closing after we took the short
I also take a view on volatility if I take an overnight position, this is a proprietary logic. The BLUE + signs means VIX expected to go up and RED+ signs means VIX expected to go down
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.