There are a number of Ukrainian reports in the last few hours that the Russian colonial militia has abandoned Lyman.
Russian Collapse Sequence 🧵
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And that Ukrainian forces are in full control of Bilohorivka, causing the Russians to commit a blocking force to the defense of Lysychansk.
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This is all of a piece.
The Russian collapse sequence in Northern Donbass proceeds apace.
The Russian's polyglot ground forces simply cannot handle Ukrainian fire support parity.
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The various Russian ground units are melting under the pressure of captured Russian artillery shells that the fall of Kharkiv Oblast delivered to Ukraine, along with the railway rolling stock to move the captured shell stocks near the Donbass front lines.
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Events in Ukraine are now beyond the power of the German & DC de-escalation camps to effect.
The ~170K Russian at start invasion forces have taken ~95% casualties.
The sums:
54,650 KIA
KIA * 2 = 109,300 WIA
Total Russian casualties = 163,960
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/357…
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The impressed Russian colonial militias and the Russian Army's most recent conscript & contract replacements are nearly untrained, so the Russian & Russian colonial infantry forces are s--t without 10-to-1 fire superiority.
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The Ukrainians now have superiority in Donbass railway logistics with Kupyansk in their hands.
And they have captured sufficient Russian artillery ammunition to reactivate 500 artillery tubes sidelined in May and the AFU have the trained & organized manpower to crew them in
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...days.
The Lyman & now the Lysychansk fighting are place holding 'shaping operation' in the East while AFU resets for the next operational level offensive.
Plus Russia is about to lose its 25 BTG equipment set & manpower
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...in its 'right bank' forces in Kherson Oblast to 'GMLRS logistical collapse.'
Ukraine seems to be setting Russian forces in Ukraine for another major Defeat/Route/Collapse, as I strongly suspect the timing of the next Eastern
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...Theater operational offensive into Luhansk will be coordinated with the collapse of Russian Forces in Kherson.
Ukraine is planning this:
"Get 'em skeered and keep the skeer on 'em"
- Lt. General Nathanial Bedford Forrest, CSA
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BLUF: Russian collapse inside Ukraines Pre-2014 borders is baked into the cake and all the US & German de-escalation camps can do is poison their Ukrainian relations going forward.
The de-escalation camps cannot save Putin nor will they be able to save themselves when the
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Russian Federation falls apart because Moscow's Regime Security forces are all '200' & '300' (KIA & WIA).
The 60k Russian regime security forces were mauled heavily, early, in the Kyiv column & they are 1/4 to 1/3 of the ~163K Russian casualties to date.
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The Russians have already started eating themselves inside Ukraine.
Defeat there will see exactly this sort of collapse in Russia, as Nadin Brzezinski piece lays out below.
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nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/mercenaries-ka…
FYI, the important part in Nadin Brzezinski medium -dot-com piece is that ALL the Oligarchs are raising PMC's. It is not just Wagner's Patron Oligarch.
Only some of the Oligarchs are sending their PMC to Ukraine.
The Oligarchs are spoiled for choice with all the VDV
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...and other Russian Regime Security Force refuseniks, if they promise to keep them in Russia.
We are seeing the Oligarchs as a class taking 'cross the rubicon' type steps in preparing for the post-Putin Russian Civil War.
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Sweating the possibilities of Russian 'loose nukes' in a multi-sided Russian civil conflict wasn't on my 24 Feb 2022 bingo card...
...but it sure as heck is right now.😱😱😱
16/16 End
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