The Russian collapse sequence in Northern Donbass proceeds apace.
The Russian's polyglot ground forces simply cannot handle Ukrainian fire support parity.
3/
The various Russian ground units are melting under the pressure of captured Russian artillery shells that the fall of Kharkiv Oblast delivered to Ukraine, along with the railway rolling stock to move the captured shell stocks near the Donbass front lines.
4/
Events in Ukraine are now beyond the power of the German & DC de-escalation camps to effect.
The ~170K Russian at start invasion forces have taken ~95% casualties.
The sums:
54,650 KIA
KIA * 2 = 109,300 WIA
Total Russian casualties = 163,960
The impressed Russian colonial militias and the Russian Army's most recent conscript & contract replacements are nearly untrained, so the Russian & Russian colonial infantry forces are s--t without 10-to-1 fire superiority.
6/
The Ukrainians now have superiority in Donbass railway logistics with Kupyansk in their hands.
And they have captured sufficient Russian artillery ammunition to reactivate 500 artillery tubes sidelined in May and the AFU have the trained & organized manpower to crew them in
7/
...days.
The Lyman & now the Lysychansk fighting are place holding 'shaping operation' in the East while AFU resets for the next operational level offensive.
Plus Russia is about to lose its 25 BTG equipment set & manpower
8/
...in its 'right bank' forces in Kherson Oblast to 'GMLRS logistical collapse.'
Ukraine seems to be setting Russian forces in Ukraine for another major Defeat/Route/Collapse, as I strongly suspect the timing of the next Eastern
9/
...Theater operational offensive into Luhansk will be coordinated with the collapse of Russian Forces in Kherson.
Ukraine is planning this:
"Get 'em skeered and keep the skeer on 'em"
- Lt. General Nathanial Bedford Forrest, CSA
10/
BLUF: Russian collapse inside Ukraines Pre-2014 borders is baked into the cake and all the US & German de-escalation camps can do is poison their Ukrainian relations going forward.
The de-escalation camps cannot save Putin nor will they be able to save themselves when the
11/
Russian Federation falls apart because Moscow's Regime Security forces are all '200' & '300' (KIA & WIA).
The 60k Russian regime security forces were mauled heavily, early, in the Kyiv column & they are 1/4 to 1/3 of the ~163K Russian casualties to date.
12/
The Russians have already started eating themselves inside Ukraine.
FYI, the important part in Nadin Brzezinski medium -dot-com piece is that ALL the Oligarchs are raising PMC's. It is not just Wagner's Patron Oligarch.
Only some of the Oligarchs are sending their PMC to Ukraine.
The Oligarchs are spoiled for choice with all the VDV
14/
...and other Russian Regime Security Force refuseniks, if they promise to keep them in Russia.
We are seeing the Oligarchs as a class taking 'cross the rubicon' type steps in preparing for the post-Putin Russian Civil War.
15/
Sweating the possibilities of Russian 'loose nukes' in a multi-sided Russian civil conflict wasn't on my 24 Feb 2022 bingo card...
...but it sure as heck is right now.😱😱😱
16/16 End
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What Ms. Tchakarova is referring to here Russian Reflexive Control information warfare techniques.
I've talked about it quite a bit during the Russo-Ukrainian War and how adherents of "Escalation Management" like @jacksullivan46 and Chancellor Scholz have been captured by it 1/
This particular passage from Timothy L. Thomas 2004 paper on the subject shows how Russia's Reflexive control infowar mapped & fed to each specific US tribal & professional demographic the data to get the message Russian wants those groups to believe. 3/
This explains the "Imperial Japanese Army at Saipan" behavior of wounded Russian soldiers killing themselves with grenades to prevent capture by Ukrainians.
Russian Mobiks are being ideologically conditioned to kill themselves, like IJA troopers were in WW2.
Russian Death Cult🧵
1/
There are multiple videos like this Russian ideological self-harm conditioned behavior surfacing.
There are still Western military officers -- including most flag ranks -- watching videos like the one below and denying FPV and other cheap DJI drones have fundamentally changed the way wars on the ground are fought.
In some forward areas there are now as many Ukrainian drone operators as infantry because FPV drones have all but replaced crew served infantry weapons.
The people on X saying Ukraine couldn't use ATACMS in the counter-battery role against Russian tactical ballistic missiles were shills, toadies, and trolls.
No one who was at all reality-based would have said anything so stupid.
2016 article at the link titled in english "WHEN THE GODS OF ARTILLERY MAKE A POINT" makes clear Ukraine had a very tight intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance kill chain between its Spetsnaz and it's Tochka-U TBM & 300mm MLRS batteries.
These Spetsnaz teams spotted 120km Tochka-U & 90 km Smersh fire strikes to clear a "Fire corredor" maneuver lane for these OMG operations during the 2014-2015 ATO.
This was pre-ATO (2014) Ukrainian military doctrine used during the ATO.
Systematic targeting of these electrical facilities powering the railways within 200 km of Ukraine's 1991 border with Russia will logistically isolate the RuAF frontline units in Ukraine from 70% of rail supply.