Credit to Peters & Co., some interesting charts to better understand an evolving Cdn energy sector…
a) lagging cost of capital (valuation) rarely last forever.
b) historically M&A market had been a solution.
c) buyers need a multiple gap to consolidate in size/frequency.
Compressing P/NAV valuations
Lack of ev/dacf gap between large and smaller producers
Buyer motivation?
Natural gas resource consolidation on deck?
Either M&A market will fix valuations, or assuming commodity stability, existing shareholders will reap rewards of return of capital….slowly, then all of a sudden.
One more thought….
Big tailwind in 99-02 US consolidation of Cdn intermediates was low Cdn dollar vs US (chart says $0.65ish at the time). Inventory, currency ($0.75 current) & political pressures all at the same time? #tailwinds. #welcomeback?
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