Credit to Peters & Co., some interesting charts to better understand an evolving Cdn energy sector…
a) lagging cost of capital (valuation) rarely last forever.
b) historically M&A market had been a solution.
c) buyers need a multiple gap to consolidate in size/frequency.
Compressing P/NAV valuations
Lack of ev/dacf gap between large and smaller producers
Buyer motivation?
Natural gas resource consolidation on deck?
Either M&A market will fix valuations, or assuming commodity stability, existing shareholders will reap rewards of return of capital….slowly, then all of a sudden.
One more thought….
Big tailwind in 99-02 US consolidation of Cdn intermediates was low Cdn dollar vs US (chart says $0.65ish at the time). Inventory, currency ($0.75 current) & political pressures all at the same time? #tailwinds. #welcomeback?
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Long weekend energy thoughts from world famous energy analyst Dan Payne at NBC: 2024e STRIP; US$78.02/bbl WTI (+3% W/W), C$101.12/bbl EDM (+3% W/W), C$84.16/bbl WCS (+6% W/W), C$3.26/mcf AECO (FLAT W/W) >>> XEG +6% W/W
Inflections to Return of Capital – Given the strength in the commodity, we are increasingly looking towards accelerating inflections to return of capital, particularly as WCP jacked its dividend by 26% (to a 6% yield under an inflection to 75% return of FCF from 50%)
following prior bumps from ERF (+9%, returning 60-70% FCF), ARX (+13%, under a 15% dividend payout) and specials from CPG/TOU.
Energy thoughts from Dan Payne’s weekend note: This week with a focus of OFS. 2024e STRIP; US$75.31/bbl WTI (+4% W/W), C$95.84/bbl EDM (+5% W/W), C$79.47/bbl WCS (+5% W/W), C$3.27/mcf AECO (+3% W/W) >>> XEG +4% W/W. Thread:
OFS Majors Review. OFS Majors second quarter results largely echoed the sentiment reflected by recently published Dallas Fed Energy Survey, although offered more distinction, granular detail and visibility in the outlook to support our thesis for our domestic OFS coverage.
OFS Majors Q2/23 Review -
Contribution to earnings was somewhat asymmetrical, where each of the majors noted intl mkt strength (+7%), relative to NA markets that are stable but lagging (+2%, and expected to moderate through H2/23).