"Everything is very simple in war, but even the simplest thing is difficult. These difficulties accumulate and produce a friction, which no man can imagine exactly who has not seen war." Clausewitz, chapter 1, book 7.
Because it's Friday, here's a short 🧵 1/
I'm a big fan of Clausewitz, was introduced to him when attending the US Army's School of Advanced Military Studies @us_sams as a young major in 1988.
An extremely formative 1-year course.
4 small groups of majors intensely studying theory, doctrine, history, battles & war. 2/
We debated & discussed Clausewitz, Sun Tzu, Jomini, Mahan, Douhet, du Picq, and others ad nauseam. We called it the "book a day club."
But "Old Dead Carl" (as we called Clausewitz) came alive for me. as it was interesting applying his Napoleonic thoughts to today's problems. 3/
Clausewitz's wrote about the concept of a "trinity" in war.
Three "simple" areas that guide success or failure in war:
-The Policy of the government
-The capability of the "army" (that's also navy, air force, etc)
-The support of the citizens. 4/
But every time we young majors thought we understood the simple stuff, we were introduced to more factors that would create more difficulties. 5/
One speaker compared conventional and irregular warfare, suggesting some things are more important that others in each time of conflict. 6/
But because we're watching RU & UKR, let's return to the original chart as it provides great insight.
Success or failure comes from:
-Strategy of the government
-Capability of the "army" (that's also navy, air force, etc)
-Support of the citizens.
Let's "grade" RU & UKR 7/
Russia:
❌Putin's "strategy" (policy) was flawed, exhibited in prep & 3 phases.
❌RU's "Army" was plagued by chance & friction due to lack of preparation, leadership, training.
❌Riots & protests in RU cities now indicate a lack of positive "passion" from the people. 8/
Ukraine:
✔️ Clear strategic objectives, communicated by a strong leader & understood by the citizens
✔️ A transforming army, with professional & trained leaders, dedicated & willing to fight.
✔️ A supportive population, who understand the implications & who have a passion. 9/
Yes, everything is simple in war, but the simplest things are difficult.
But the side that has a clarity on these Clausewitzian ideas is better positioned for victory.
Best to all on this Friday. 10/10
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