Thread by @DefMon3

Update 🧵September 25th.
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Yesterdays thread

75 shelling locations were reported by GSUA today.

FIRMS Data: 2022-09-25_18:20
Added 31 locations to kml
Filtered 30 locations by proximity to other fires
Removed 57 false positives

Kup'yans'k
Based on shelling locations, I believe the AFU has established 2 bridgeheads in the Kup'yans'k area.

Lyman.
I belive the AFU has established atleast 5 crossings over the Oskil and SD river. The reason the russians are prepared to defend Lyman until the last man, is it's a key blocking positions for the axis of advance east of the Zherebets river.

Once Lyman falls, the axis west of Zherebets will have their flank protected by the eastern axis and they can start advancing towards Svatove.

RuAF have moved some reinforcements to the Siversk-Soledar area, but i do not think they will pose a threat to the AFU offensive.

Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed RuAF attacks in the area of Vymika, Soledar, Zaitseve and Kurdyumivka. It seems like RuAF have spread their forces more evenly along the line rather than focusing on the south side of Bakhmut.

I do not see any risk of Bakhmut being captured by RuAF in the foreseeable future.

Donetsk
RuAF tried to advance in the area of Pervomais'ke, Novomykhailivka and Pavlivka. They were plagued by smoking accidents and had to turn around.

Kherson
Not a lot of news is coming out of here. Kherson police reported the Russians are shelling the town Arkhanhel's'ke (not close to/in the area of). I think this indicates the AFU are in the town, but RuAF might also be in the other part of the town.

Russian hero. I'm sorry I forgot where I found it, so I can not give credit.

I was asked to draw why Lyman is important to the Russians. I hope this explains it.
With Ru in Lyman, the southern axis of advance towards Svatove will vulnerable.