75 shelling locations were reported by GSUA today.
FIRMS Data: 2022-09-25_18:20
Added 31 locations to kml
Filtered 30 locations by proximity to other fires
Removed 57 false positives
Kup'yans'k
Based on shelling locations, I believe the AFU has established 2 bridgeheads in the Kup'yans'k area.
Lyman.
I belive the AFU has established atleast 5 crossings over the Oskil and SD river. The reason the russians are prepared to defend Lyman until the last man, is it's a key blocking positions for the axis of advance east of the Zherebets river.
Once Lyman falls, the axis west of Zherebets will have their flank protected by the eastern axis and they can start advancing towards Svatove.
RuAF have moved some reinforcements to the Siversk-Soledar area, but i do not think they will pose a threat to the AFU offensive.
Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed RuAF attacks in the area of Vymika, Soledar, Zaitseve and Kurdyumivka. It seems like RuAF have spread their forces more evenly along the line rather than focusing on the south side of Bakhmut.
I do not see any risk of Bakhmut being captured by RuAF in the foreseeable future.
Donetsk
RuAF tried to advance in the area of Pervomais'ke, Novomykhailivka and Pavlivka. They were plagued by smoking accidents and had to turn around.
Kherson
Not a lot of news is coming out of here. Kherson police reported the Russians are shelling the town Arkhanhel's'ke (not close to/in the area of). I think this indicates the AFU are in the town, but RuAF might also be in the other part of the town.
Russian hero. I'm sorry I forgot where I found it, so I can not give credit.
I was asked to draw why Lyman is important to the Russians. I hope this explains it.
With Ru in Lyman, the southern axis of advance towards Svatove will vulnerable.
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They decided to go and stand on this little piece of road right here.
57.923805, 27.679182
There is some kind of local deal where Estonians are allowed to drive over that little stretch of Russian land if they don't stop. news.err.ee/1609827133/ppa…
Rough infil/exfil path of the UVU shooter, based on photos, videos and eye whitness reports. Green arrows are guestimated paths between sightings.
In the start of this video, the UVU shooter can be seen walking towards the campus, at the end he can be seen running away from it.
40.28187, -111.71443
The next location is the tunnel going under the Campus drive to the parking garage
40.28014, -111.71459
Ukrainian Drone hit the Deng Xiaoping Logistics Complex which is part of the Alabuga Special Economical Zone. The Alabuga SEZ is where they produce the Shahed drone.
The DXLC is a railway logistics center being built in partnership with China to support the fast growing Alabuga SEZ.
At the actual SEZ they are expanding at a rapid pace, they are building on site housing and/or office space for tens of thousands of employees. Their goal is likely to significantly scale up the production of drones.
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?