*** NORD STREAM 2 incident ***
/Thread
I am getting a lot of questions re #Russian underwater sabotage capabilities due to the leak on the #NordStream2 pipeline off Denmark.
I do not have time to respond to media right now (sorry)
So just lay out some background reference.
1. Circumstances
The leak is near the Danish island of Bornholm, at 54.8762°, 15.4099° in ~70 meters of water. This would be divable
2 things do make it suspicious:
a) It is just over 12 nautical miles from the Island in International waters
b) the EEZ here is disputed here (?)
2. History
In the past the USSR based spy submarines with special 'seabed engineering' capabilities in the Baltic. These are implicated in some of the famous 'Swedish incursions' of the late Cold War
See hisutton.com/Seliger.html
This force is no longer based in the Baltic
3. GUGI and the internet tapping subs
Today the Russian Navy has the largest fleet of spy submarines in the world. These are based in the arctic
They would be capable of damaging a pipe in the Baltic. However it seems improbable.
4. Belgorod
A Russian submarine you will hear a lot about is Belgorod. See hisutton.com/Spy%20Subs%20-…
This submarine is not to blame. Many reasons. Right now she is understood to be operating in the White Sea
5. People will also point to Russian Spetsnaz divers based in Baltic. Not out of question, but much of the info out there is out of date.
The famous Piranha midget submarines are long since scrapped.
And the Trition-1M/2 are vintage and unlikely to be in service.
6. Russia does however have autonomous underwater vehicles.
A new center for their development is in St. Petersburg. Some of these might be suitable.
But they would need a host ship of some sort.
7. So, the relevant Russian capabilities are things like divers and underwater drones (AUVs). Not fancy nuclear submarines.
Hot take. Caveats apply.
Should make clear, I am not pointing at any culprit, merely responding to the types of questions i am getting with (hopefully) useful background info
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