Thread by @CedricMas

#Ukraine 10/01 The Lyman’s battle is in full swing with a great confusion : UKR forces annouce encirclement, and RUS speak about evacuation, and then about counterattack. And this battle (announced 2 weeks ago) must not hide what happen elsewhere.
Traduction de @StphaneCardon3

#Ukraine 10/01 Last night the encirclement was almost complete after the capture of Yampil & the UKR advance towards Kreminna.

#Ukraine 10/01 The Lyman’s pocket (or salient) was narrowing with the loss of Dobrysheve, maybe a sign of the RUS evacuation even if it’s late.

#Ukraine 10/01 So we could wait for a RUS global withdrawal more or less in (dis)order from Lyman. But the RUS forces are still resisting in Lyman this night. Counter order ? It’s the most likely.

#Ukraine 10/01 Yesterday, RUS artillery shelled all this area and their reinforcement appeared eastward. The russian’s sources said a counter attack was ongoing (RUS MLRS around Tors’ke).

#Ukraine 10/01 As I said yesterday, the main front is not far and everything is possible from now on. We must remain careful (even if the global situation is clearly on UKR side).
(Here is Yampil liberation)

#Ukraine 10/01 So this area’s situation is still confusing with an almost encirclement still too close to the main frontline. Everything will depend on the morale or RUS forces trapped (2 battalions of voluntary reservists and a Cossack motorized regiment) and those around.

#Ukraine 10/01 And everything will also depend on UKR actions. The UKR army has the initiative, so they are able to launch new efforts anywhere they wish. The Kreminna and Lysychansk (south) areas or the Borova (north), or even Kupiansk are interesting.

#Ukraine 10/01 To have the initiative and morale ascendancy is essential, and a RUS recovery will need much more forces, which will be lacking elsewhere, giving UKR more possibilities (Video just before an assault yesterday or this morning).

#Ukraine 10/01 But we must not forget what is happening in Soledar - Bakhmut where the RUS forces are still attacking, and nor in Kherson where UKR forces still make the effort in order to crumble the enemy's set.

#Ukraine 10/01 On their side, RUS are bringing in new forces to the front. Their stock seem inexhaustible (however it’s running out slowly but surely), but what is already missing is new soldiers trained and motivated in order to fight in outdated machines.

#Ukraine 10/01 Trying to play on all fronts, the RUS are agitating the threats of new operations from Belarus or even Russia towards the North-East. In the meantime, reinforcements are coming to Krasna (here 7 T-90Ms at Dubrovka near Belgorod). Note the strained faces.

#Ukraine 10/01 RUS forces make endless deadly strikes on towns. Exemple, 4 ukrainians civils just for yeasterday in the free part of Donetsk.

#Ukraine 10/01 But even with the unilateral annexation of the invaded lands, the UKR resistance continues everywhere.

#Ukraine 10/01 And as Putin decorates war criminals, @ZelenskyyUa honors teachers of Luhansk annexed by russia for their dedication to serve their students. Moscow is right : it’s a war between two opposed civilizations and values.

#Ukraine 10/01 End of this daily situation review. Things can change quickly (in Lyman or elsewhere), hence my cautious. Have a great day full of hope despite the horizon filled with dark clouds (which so much refuse to watch).