Thread by @TheTranscript_

A few quotes from Powell's post #FOMC November Conference:

1. On rate increases:

"At some point..it will become prudent to slow the pace of increases. There is significant uncertainty around that level of interest rates. Even so, we still have some ways to go"

2. Main message:

"What I'm trying to do is make sure our message is clear, which is we think we have a ways to go. We have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to that level of interest rates we think are sufficiently restrictive"

#FOMC #Powell

3. Has the window for soft landing narrowed?

"Has it narrowed? Yes. Is it still possible? Yes. We've always said it was going to be difficult. I think to the extent rates have to go higher and stay higher for longer, it becomes harder to see the path. It's narrowed" - Powell

4. Why has the window narrowed?

"Because we haven't seen inflation coming down..what we would expect by now to have seen is that really as the supply side problems had resolved themselves, we would have expected goods inflation to come down by now..It really hasn't"- Powell

5. Too premature to discuss pausing:

"So I would also say it's premature to discuss pausing. It's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go" - Powell.

6. Consumer spending still good:

"Consumer spending is still positive. It's at pretty modest growth levels. It's not shrinking. But the banks that deal with retail customers and many retailers will tell you that the consumers are still buying, and they're still fine"

7/7 In summary:

"We still have some ways to go and incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected...We have a ways to go" - Powell