Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #FOMC

Most recents (13)

The @federalreserve’s #JacksonHole Policy Symposium has typically been thought of as an event of #academic contemplation, rather than of active #policy innovation, but 2020’s event proved to be the exception to the rule.
That’s because #Fed #ChairPowell surprised many by introducing the #FOMC’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which was not expected until later in the year.
In many respects, the Strategy statement represents a mirror image to the #Fed’s stance more than a generation ago, in August 1979, when Chair Paul #Volcker took over leadership of the central bank…
Read 7 tweets
Gold and Silver; This blog goes through all the major changes in central bank forward guidance and its impact on the metals, important read #FOMC

They hated the $XME Metals ETF in April, and they love her today.

thebeartrapsreport.com/blog/2020/04/
Dec 2008: stated that “weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.” Back in 2008, from December 15 to February 20 of the following year; Silver was 42% higher with Gold 26% to the upside.

(2)
March 18, 2009: The FOMC replaced “for some time” with “for an extended period” in its postmeeting statement. Next, from March 17 to December 1st, silver was 54% higher while gold surged 34%.

(3)
Read 5 tweets
#FederalReserve #FOMC

I'm not a fan of low interest rates, and economic focus centered too much around stock market index values where artificiality arose as a result of a series of quantitative easings. Not good for savers, and normally bad for wealth (in)equality also...
#FederalReserve #FOMC

... having said that, there has been plenty with MAGAnomics orientated around Main Street, small biz, "blue collar boom", wages, etc., as opposed to the prior administration to offset some "bad" with low interest rates....
#FederalReserve #FOMC

... but the real problem is Keynesian economics and poor economic freedom in most of other major economies, and hence Eurozone, Japan, etc. have persisted with zero/negative interest rates while the U.S. (FOMC) did raise quite a bit in 2018...
Read 15 tweets
If you've been following #Global #Capital #Markets, you'll have noted a significant rebound in some of the world's key stock market indices. This follows a "correction" in the wake of #COVID19. The rebound largely comes on the back of #CentralBank commitment to "lower for longer"
While #CentralBank commitment to "lower for longer" might help rally markets today, it is still imperative for us to consider the #Global #MonetaryPolicy #Toolbox and if policy makers will have enough space to "keep cutting" or providing "stimulus" moving forward.
Below are #CentralBank meeting dates for March 1st to 7th 2020. From this list, Banks that usually "move the needle" as it where, are Bank of #Australia & the Bank of #Canada. As it so happens, Bank of Australia cut policy rate by 25bps to 0.5% citing #COVID19 as downside risk.
Read 7 tweets
Let us talk about the #FED #FOMC's 1st #MonetaryPolicy meeting of 2020. Specifically, let us talk about the puzzle that is a flatter #PhillipsCurve...
The #FederalOpenMarketCommittee (#FOMC) of the #FederalReserveBank (#FED) of the #US concluded its 1st meeting of 2020 on the 29th January 2020. As expected, the FED did not change rates but left the #KeyPolicyRate, the #FederalFundsRate (#FFR) in the 1.5%-1.75% range...
Indeed, if one considers the #FED #Dotplot of December 2019, the decision to keep rates unchanged would not come as a surprise. What I wanted to focus on today is some key passages in the statement, highlighted in yellow in the screenshot below...its all #PhillipsCurve...
Read 17 tweets
Lets talk about the upcoming 1st meeting of the #FED #FOMC (28-29 January 2020). Specifically, lets talk about the #DOTS...
The #FED #FOMC developed the so called #DotPlot in 2011 as a chart to record each FED's official forecast for the FED's key short-term interest rate (federal funds rate - #FFR). Currently, the FFR, following the December 2019 meeting is in the target range between 1.5% and 1.75%
The most recent #DotPlot is attached below. Each dot represents one #FED official, from the Chairman to fellow Governors. It is anonymous & as such, no one knows which official is responsible for what dot...
Read 10 tweets
Nov 3rd Week Trade Thread:
$Eurusd and $Dxy levels i am watching may close my euro long and flip with short position once ltf p.a confirms.
$Eurusd
Euro H4 levels i am focusing.
$Eurusd
Friday level hold broke m.s structure on ltf targeting 5R and 3R around 1.**92 level with today position.👊
Read 31 tweets
As expected, the #FOMC cut policy rates a quarter-point, Chair #Powell referenced the Committee’s reliance on data dependency and provided a nuanced view of #economic conditions. Still, just because all that was “expected,” doesn’t take away from the fact it was also good policy.
Indeed, today’s announcement represents an important moment for the #Fed, in which policy rates were moved to appropriate levels, alongside significant liquidity provision, which is precisely the right combination in our view: this is a big positive for #markets.
Specifically, we think the #Fed moved to the lower end of what we believe should be the equilibrium rate of interest in an #economy that’s facing aging demographic trends, and which benefits from still positive interest rates.
Read 5 tweets
A much better performance from Powell. But his tone and body language clearly showed that he believed that the US economy is doing well and this is just an insurance cut against the Trump Trade War and global weakness
#Powell #FOMC #ratecut #Trump #Fed /1 @threadreaderapp
Powell was clear the US will not go to negative rates. He believes that asset purchases and forward guidance have worked in the past and that is the way forward as well.
#Powell #FOMC #ratecut #Trump #Fed /2
On yield curve inversion Powell does not see it as a recession indicator but rather a contraction in term premia driven by global low interest rates.
#Powell #FOMC #ratecut #Trump #Fed /3
Read 11 tweets
A brief discussion of how we are prepared for today's #FOMC minutes and Friday's #JacksonHole conference. 1/
First, know that #FOMC minutes are dramatically edited versions of transcripts so there is meaning beyond the last meeting. In the intermeeting period FINANCIAL CONDITIONS HAVE WEAKENED. 2/
There are a number of ways to measure this in USD terms, but they all point the same direction as high yield credit spreads, noted below, which are wider +50bps since July 31. 3/
Read 21 tweets
I did Powell this AM, so might as well do the mins now. Thread 1/x
There's this ongoing discussion among #FOMC about deterioration in conditions. I'm really not seeing it...but my opinion doesn't count for as much. "Many participants" means it's a majority opinion of voters. 2/x
The ongoing labor market slack argument, advanced most prominently by @neelkashkari and @Jamesbullard (prolly not his real handle) gets a little attention, but not much. Can't employ everybody. 3/x
Read 14 tweets
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan When a central banker or economist mentions 'stimulus', they are talking about diluting the currency through debt currency issuance - to create REAL GROWTH.

This is the insanity & silly talk promoted by central bankers globally.

Nobody asks the question.

#centralbanking #gold
Read 55 tweets
riprendiamo questo discorso...
la "comica" corsa delle HFT firms ad avvicinarsi quanto più possibile ai server del CME (futures exchange)...
datacenterknowledge.com/cyrusone/cyrus…
...se parlate di mercati, cari i miei governanti, almeno cercate di conoscerne la struttura...ancora con il "floor"
6 maggio del 2010...la Grecia è al centro dell'attenzione mediatica mondiale e da li a poco la #ECB inizierà a comprare debito greco via SMP... ma quel giorno verrà ricordato come la massima espressione dei "fake markets" moderni, dominati dagli algos HFT
cnbc.com/video/30003772…
Read 120 tweets

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