Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Powell

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#BREAKING US economy faces "uncertain" global environment, could face further inflation "surprises": Fed chair Powell
#UPDATE The US economy is strong but faces an "uncertain" global environment and could see further inflation "surprises," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome #Powell said on Wednesday, on the first of two closely-watched days of testimony to Congress
#BREAKING 'Certainly a possibility' rate hikes could trigger US recession: Fed's Powell
Read 4 tweets
LIVE NOTES: Powell speaks at the FOMC Press Conference.

The Fed will be hiking interest rates by 50bps.
Balance sheet run-off will begin on June 1st.

We will be adding updates to this thread live as we watch the Press Conference!

#FOMC #FederalReserve #Fed #Powell
You can view Powell's discussion live through this link:
Balance Sheet Run-Off (QT): The Fed will not be reinvesting coupons and principal payments on the bonds it own.

As the bonds mature, these will run-off and effectively shrink their balance sheet.
Read 25 tweets

L'ancienne secrétaire d'État américaine Madeleine #Albright est décédée à 84 ans. Image
En 1996, Madeleine Albright déclarait que la mort de 500 000 enfants irakiens (liées aux sanctions) en valaient le prix. Image
📹 🇺🇸 ❌ 🇮🇶 | Extrait de l’entretien en question :
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Şimdi gelelim niye aldığım hususuna. #Powell'ı dinledim. #FED 0.25 bp #faiz arttırdı. Ancak en önemlisi bilanço daraltmayı sıradaki toplantıya yani 3 mayısa bıraktılar.
Bu da piyasaların 48 gün boyunca rahat nefes alıp, ilerleyebileceğini düşündürdü. Geçmiş tecrübeme göre eğer böyle bir zaman aralığı bırakılıyorsa bunun çeyreği yükselişle geçer genelde. Normalde olabildiğince düşük riske giren bir yatırımcıyım. Ancak kısa vade
ufak kazanç gözereterek böyle bir portföy oluşturdum. Portföyümün %30'luk kısmını ağırlıklı demirbaş ve layer1'lar olmak üzere böldüm. Satışlarımı #Bitcoin'e göre yapacağım için tek tek şu altta hedefim bu diğer #Altcoin'de hedefim bu demek doğru olmazdı.
Read 5 tweets
As the first rate hike of this new (imho very short) rate hike cycle is getting closer, let's have a look at the performance of the #USD, #commodities and #gold before and after the first hike:
Will the #USD rally? Not necessarily..

The period prior to a US tightening shows a rally in the USD but very often weakens in the 6-month period following the first hike....
What about #commodities? Consensus would tell us that raising rates will cause commodities to sell off.

Not really. ..The first rate hike proved to be close to the bottom for the 2015 cycle, and all cycles were higher a couple of months out...
Read 7 tweets
THREAD: A picture is worth a thousand words. Let's look at a few #ETF graphs & see if we can make some sense of the current market environment.

What a year it's been for #Oil & #Energy! Sharing only positive YTD #MSCI #Sector performance with #Financials.


#EmergingMarkets #ETF seriously lagging #DevelopedMarkets ETF, mostly due to disinvestment from #China.

#SouthAfrica might need a lot of catch up, but $EZA 1YR performance in USD (+9.9%) is still ahead of $EEM (-11.3%)


#Global #Value #stocks (#ETF) recently enjoyed short-term recovery, but still got some serious catch-up to do over the longer term.

Read 16 tweets
DoubleLine founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents:

Just Markets 2022 - I Feel Young Again

Today at 1:15pm PT, register here:…

#macro #markets #stocks #FX #bonds #commodities #rates #inflation #Fed #QE #bitcoin

Live recap thread⬇️
Jeffrey Gundlach: 2021 might end up running 7% year on the CPI

#inflation #QE #Powell #fed #hikes #rates
Jeffrey Gundlach: Low interest rates coupled with inflation generating negative interest rate.

#JustMarkets2022 #CPI #QE #Fed
Read 48 tweets
Nada nuevo bajo el sol:
1.- $ 4,3 billones de op sobre acciones están a punto de expirar (incluidos $ 2,3 billones de op trim de SPX, $ 360 billones de op sobre fut de SPX E-mini, $ 255 billones de op SPY y $ 670 billones de op sobre acc individuales
2.- La prima de riesgo de alta volatilidad de este año es una indicación de que los inversores han sido compradores netos de opciones del índice, dejando una posición gamma corta que puede ayudar a que la volatilidad se mantenga elevada esta semana. #Sp500
3.- La volatilidad de las acciones individuales sigue siendo bastante alta. El movimiento negativo de muchas acciones está generando grandes volúmenes de Puts, creando un gamma negativo altamente concentrado en el vencimiento del 17/12. #VIX
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Je vous présente le variant le plus vicieux du monde : #Omicron.
Tellement vicieux que le Président de la #Fed le rend responsable de l'inflation à venir, car à cause de lui la #Fed va devoir créer de la monnaie magique pour l'injecter dans les marchés financiers.
Définition financière d'un virus : petit machin qui permet d'instaurer la peur au sein de la population, pour justifier des politiques monétaires les plus folles au profit des marchés.

Synonyme : aubaine

Risques : bulles des marchés, aggravation des inégalités de richesse
Read 3 tweets
#Fed v/s Markets:
▪️ Mkt now pricing >2 hikes in 2022 vs Fed Dots @ 0.5 hike
▪️ Mkt @ 4 over 23/24 vs Fed 6 hikes
▪️ Mkt @ 18bp 0.7 hike by Jun'22 vs Fed to end taper only by mid-22 implies:
1⃣ Fed to hike with QE-buy (read #Powell 👇) OR
2⃣ Fed to accelerate taper by Mar'22

#Powell @ Jul-FOMC: "wouldn’t be still buying assets & raising’re adding accommod by buying & removing by raising.,,wouldn’t be ideal"

Sep-FOMC: "buying assets=adding acco..wouldn’t make any sense to then lift off...would be go ahead & speed up taper"

▪️ Fed starts in Nov21 at $15bn/m; end in 8m in Jun’22
▪️ But even at 5y-avg ~2.0% pa, CPI doesn't fall below 5.0% until Mar22
▪️ Hawkish possibility=>Fed gives up on transitory in Feb22; accelerates taper to $30/m to end in Apr22; first hike by Jun22; that's current mkt pricing
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1) Knives don’t kill people people do 2) it’s the people who make the place 😉 A dysfunctional, multicultural, failing society deserves all it’s got coming to it
#KalergiPlan #DavidAmess #SirDavidAmess #knifecrime #Southend #Brexit #Somalia #Migrants ⬇️…
1) Knives don’t kill people people do 2) it’s the people who make the place 😉 A dysfunctional, multicultural, failing society deserves all it’s got coming to it
#KalergiPlan #DavidAmess #SirDavidAmess #knifecrime #Brexit #Somalia #Migrants ‘each to their own kind and country’
1) Knives don’t kill people people do 2) it’s the people who make the place 😉 A dysfunctional, multicultural, failing society deserves all it’s got coming to it
#KalergiPlan #DavidAmess #knifecrime #Brexit #Somalia #Migrants #CassiusClay ‘each to their own kind and country’
Read 7 tweets
So #FOMC decides to keep rates unchanged at 0%-0.25%

Interest on excess reserves raised by 5bps from 0.10% to 0.15%

Inflation forecast raised by 100bps from 2.4% to 3.4%,though #Fed says long term goal is 2%

No #RateHike before 2023,says Powell;In March,he said,not before 2024
So called overnight #Repo operations where banks exchange high-end collateral for reserves,have been seeing record demand lately,as institutions look for any yield above the negative rates they are seeing in some markets

No plans to stop $120bn of monthly Bond purchases by #Fed
In separate matter,#FOMC announced,it would extend dollar-swap lines with global central banks through end of the yr

Currency program is the last #Covid-era initiative,Fed took to keep global markets flowing

Basically,Fed decides to stay with liquidity glut&easy money policy
Read 5 tweets
#Fed Put & Financial Conditions Index (#FCI):

#Powell: “…would be concerned by…persistent tightening in financial conditions…”

🚩Just-for-fun graphic: Fed Put - Market’s search for Put’s Strike Price = Fed’s intervention threshold

🚩#DiveIn: FCI & Macro

1/12 Image
So why learn about FCI?
#1 Fed tracks FCI
#2 FCI affects GDP/Output

Traditional Keynesian => s/t Interest Rates affect GDP

Goldman’s Hatzius/Stehn argue (2018 paper) Interest Rates first affect FCI (empirically mild relationship) & FCI then strongly affects GDP (Graphic)

2/12 Image
Financial Conditions Index (FCI)?
▶️One # to capture state of conditions in financial/banking system
▶️weighted average of indicators of interest rates, exchange rate, credit spreads & equity valuations
▶️each indicator expressed relative to its avrg & scaled by its stdev

3/12 Image
Read 12 tweets
Citibank 1/6: Week Ahead:
#USD: #Fed speak includes Fed’s #Mester discussing US economy & Fed Chair #Powell speaking to Economic Club of NY; US CPI MoM – Citi: 0.3%, median: 0.3%, prior: 0.4%; CPI YoY – Citi: 1.5%, median: 1.5%, prior: 1.4%; CPI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.1%,
Citibank 2/6: median: 0.2%, prior: 0.1%; CPI ex Food, Energy YoY – Citi: 1.5%, median: 1.5%, prior: 1.6% - Citi analysts expect a slightly firmer increase in core CPI, consistent with a slightly stronger rise in core PCE.

#USD: University of Michigan Sentiment – Citi: 79.4,
Citibank 3/6: median: 80.9, prior: 79.0; University of Michigan 1Yr Inflation Expectations – Citi: 3.0%, prior: 3.0% - sentiment survey should reflect increased optimism over recently falling virus cases while inflation expectations are likely to remain relatively more-elevated -
Read 6 tweets
Ganz vergessen.

#FoxNews wird auf 2,7 Milliarden Dollar verklagt, da diese Gerüchte verbreitet haben, Smartmatic hätte geholfen die Ergebnisse der US-Wahl zu beeinflussen.

Mittlerweile rudert FoxNews, aus Angst vor der Klage, massiv zurück.…
In der Anklage werden 3 Moderatoren explizit benannt:
Maria Bartiromo, Lou Dobbs and Jeanine Pirro

Die Sendung wurde Dobbs wurde bereits abgesetzt.…
Vor einigen Tagen wurden schon #DonaldTrump|s Haus- und Hofanwälte Rudy Giuliani und Sidney #Powell mit Klagen von Dominion (auch ein Hersteller für Wahlcomputer) überzogen.…
Read 4 tweets
The #FOMC today began the process of “operationalizing” the average inflation targeting framework that Chair #Powell first laid out in his Jackson Hole, WY, Economic Policy Conference speech: including new guidance on how long #policy rates can be expected to remain near zero.
Specifically, policy #rates will remain at current levels “until #labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum #employment and #inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.”
Still, we’re skeptical about the achievability of this #inflation goal when the #disinflationary influences of technological #innovation and the #demographic trend of #population aging arguably hold a greater impact on the rate of inflation than central bank #policy does.
Read 6 tweets
A very interesting @WSJ article over the weekend regarding how #European governments that have railed against U.S. big #tech companies over privacy concerns are now embracing these same companies’ #coronavirus contact tracing #technologies.
This gets to a longtime argument we’ve made about @ecb policy and the role of #innovation in spurring greater #growth in the region:…
Essentially, it has long been our view that negative interest rates (#NIRP) are counterproductive and what’s needed is #equity investment in innovation, #technology, and 21st century #infrastructure.
Read 8 tweets
#US #IndustrialProduction numbers were released yesterday for Apr-end. The picture isn't pretty. Showing below how bad it was in the last 2 months in actual numbers. (comparing Feb-end with Apr-end; Grey areas show previous recessions). The index itself declined 15.3% (1)
PART1: Industries underperforming the IP Index

1. #MotorVehicles & Parts - down 80% in 2 months. It's the LOWEST since 1972. (2)
2. #DurableConsumerGoods - down 47% in 2 months (3)
Read 17 tweets
Lets talk about the upcoming 1st meeting of the #FED #FOMC (28-29 January 2020). Specifically, lets talk about the #DOTS...
The #FED #FOMC developed the so called #DotPlot in 2011 as a chart to record each FED's official forecast for the FED's key short-term interest rate (federal funds rate - #FFR). Currently, the FFR, following the December 2019 meeting is in the target range between 1.5% and 1.75%
The most recent #DotPlot is attached below. Each dot represents one #FED official, from the Chairman to fellow Governors. It is anonymous & as such, no one knows which official is responsible for what dot...
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As vital as Episode 2 was, Episode 3 of @onthemedia’s outstanding #purpleproject features @AnandWrites, who, with his elegant precision, explains just how where we are now was the result of the “most successful intellectual campaigns in history.”
@onthemedia @AnandWrites I can’t stress enough how every single person in this country should hear, and have explained to them, exactly what Episodes 2 & 3 covers in only 20 minutes. If everyone reading this learns how to discuss these things, it might have a profound impact on our … 1/2
Read 18 tweets
As expected, the #FOMC cut policy rates a quarter-point, Chair #Powell referenced the Committee’s reliance on data dependency and provided a nuanced view of #economic conditions. Still, just because all that was “expected,” doesn’t take away from the fact it was also good policy.
Indeed, today’s announcement represents an important moment for the #Fed, in which policy rates were moved to appropriate levels, alongside significant liquidity provision, which is precisely the right combination in our view: this is a big positive for #markets.
Specifically, we think the #Fed moved to the lower end of what we believe should be the equilibrium rate of interest in an #economy that’s facing aging demographic trends, and which benefits from still positive interest rates.
Read 5 tweets
Recent months witnessed three key central bankers; #Powell, #Draghi and #Kuroda set off a renewed policy easing cycle, as various global growth risks have resulted in rates and spreads today close to post-crisis lows.
From an #investment standpoint, this creates further #yieldscarcity, as any reasonable yielding asset now faces tremendous demand and a more limited relative available supply. Image
Still, though it presents some added challenges for #investors seeking yield, or those attempting to match long-term liabilities, this policy easing is justified by the #economic weakening seen across the globe. Image
Read 5 tweets
A much better performance from Powell. But his tone and body language clearly showed that he believed that the US economy is doing well and this is just an insurance cut against the Trump Trade War and global weakness
#Powell #FOMC #ratecut #Trump #Fed /1 @threadreaderapp
Powell was clear the US will not go to negative rates. He believes that asset purchases and forward guidance have worked in the past and that is the way forward as well.
#Powell #FOMC #ratecut #Trump #Fed /2
On yield curve inversion Powell does not see it as a recession indicator but rather a contraction in term premia driven by global low interest rates.
#Powell #FOMC #ratecut #Trump #Fed /3
Read 11 tweets
Markets are still interpreting comments from NY @federalreserve Pres. John Williams as being indicative of dovish #Fed policy action, despite the central bank’s defense that these comments stemmed from long-term research. We think the #market is right to price in easing.
The central bank is considering significant #easing, but recent strength in June payrolls, and the bounce back in goods pricing in the last #CPI, suggest that it is not solely U.S. weakness driving the narrative, but preventive action based on fear of global slowing. Image
In line with our view that a rate cut is likely, we would point out that even with the decent Core #CPI number, Core #PCE is projected to be just under 1.7%, which is still well below Fed target. Image
Read 7 tweets

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