1. Circumstantial evidence says that Kari Lake should win #AZGov. This doesn't prove she's the winner, but it's hard to see how Hobbs should win given these conditions.
Since Hobbs is currently ahead anyway, let's review.🧵
2. Polling:
In no poll since August has Hobbs reached 50%. Lake has 8 times, w/3 in the last week. She currently averages >50% in the RCP composite, w/a 3.5 point lead. In the latest 14 polls tracked by 538, Hobbs only led in 1, w/Lake up 2.4 points overall. Broad agreement.
3. Social Media
If SM is a measure of enthusiasm, engagement & campaign efficiency--then Lake is absolutely demolishing Hobbs.
FB: Lake 229k, Lake 12k
Instagram: Lake 421k, Hobbs 7k
Twitter: Lake 591k, Hobbs 136k
Totals: Lake 1.24 million, Hobbs 155k
8X advantage to Lake.
4. Recent Voter Turnout
In the September primaries, GOP turnout dwarfed the DEM turnout. GOP had a whopping 40% greater turnout than the DEMs, 830k to 596k. GOP voter engagement & enthusiasm way higher.
5. Hobbs's "Basement" Strategy
Hobbs refused to debate Kari Lake & according to the local AZ press, has pursued a hiding strategy--not a "Get out the vote" strategy.
Limited geography lead supports this. Currently, Hobbs is up in only 5 counties--mostly the dense urban areas.
6. Issues
The top issues voters cared about this cycle were inflation, the economy & immigration. This is doubly accurate in AZ which has some of the highest inflation in the nation & is being overrun w/illegals & fentanyl.
These are issues that Lake ran on hard.
7. Money
Over 90% of the time, the candidate who spends more wins.
While Hobbs has raised more directly, Kari Lake & Lake-aligned PACs have outspent Hobbs & Hobbs-aligned PACs $11.5M to $9.3M.
tucson.com/news/state-and…
8. Add the usual intangibles
-It's the mid-terms & the opposing party usually gets a bounce
-75% of voters are dissatisfied or angry w/the way things are going
-Joe Biden has historically bad approval ratings
These would all seem to favor Kari Lake.
9. Recap
>Lake led in polling
>Lake led in SM engagement
>Lake had greater recent voter turnout
>Lake had broader geographical support, while Hobbs pursued a quiet "basement" strategy
>Lake leads on the issues
>Lake spent more money
>Typical midterm trends support Lake
10. Given these factors, it's hard to see how/why Hobbs could/should win this #AZGov race.
@UnrollHelper unroll
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