Thread by @TheStudyofWar

The battle of #Kherson is not over, but Russian forces have entered a new phase—prioritizing withdrawing their forces across the river in good order and delaying Ukrainian forces, rather than seeking to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive entirely. /1 isw.pub/UkrWar110922

2/ The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the #Kherson direction since August—a coordinated interdiction campaign to force Russian forces to withdraw across the #Dnipro without necessitating major Ukrainian ground offensives—has likely succeeded.

3/ As @TheStudyofWar has observed over the previous months, Ukrainian forces engaged in a purposeful and well-executed campaign to target Russian concentration areas, military assets, and logistics nodes throughout #Kherson Oblast...

...to make continued Russian positions on the west bank untenable without having to conduct large-scale and costly ground maneuvers to liberate territory.

4/ Ukrainian troops launched constant attacks on bridges across the #Dnipro River and targeted supply centers and ammunition depots on the east bank of the Dnipro that degraded the ability of Russian forces to supply the grouping on the west bank...

...Ukrainian forces combined these strikes with prudent and successful ground attacks on key locations such as Davydiv Brid.

5/ This campaign has come to fruition. #Surovikin directly acknowledged that Russian forces cannot supply their grouping in #Kherson City and the surrounding areas due to Ukrainian strikes on critical Russian supply lines to the west bank.

6/ Russian sources noted that the withdrawal is a natural consequence of targeted and systematic Ukrainian strikes that cost the Russian grouping on the west bank its major supply arteries, which gradually attritted their overall strength and capabilities. isw.pub/UkrWar110922