Thread by @AndrewPerpetua

Here is the current situation on the Donetsk front (plus one town in Luhansk). #ukrdailyupdate

Ff you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com

First, the Luhansk town, Bilohorivka, Russia, controls the northern outskirts of the town, and they are attacking the south. Capturing this town is a priority for Russia. To my knowledge, they've had no success attacking in the past few days.

The other Bilohorivka is also contested. Wagner appears to control the southern half of the town, as I have it marked on the map. While this isn't confirmed, it seems likely true, so I have marked it this way on the map. The map could change if more information comes out.

There is heavy fighting around Yakovlivka. Russia cannot attack the town head-on, so they have been trying to move around its flanks for months. They've yet to make progress, especially compared to the months of fighting.

Although in recent days, they may have moved a little more. I am unsure of the extent, so the map is unchanged.

In Soledar, there is heavy fighting, but I don't see much movement. Only a lot of casualties for both sides. Russia still controls the Knauf Gips factory and a few minor streets to the north of the factory. Note that everything south of the factory is Bakhmutske and not Soledar.

Russia is pushing south from the Knauf Gips factory into Bakhmutske, which isn't a new development. They've been attempting this for weeks. They now claim to have captured control over the bits of Bakhmutske south and east of the T1302 highway. I haven't seen proof.

Russia is attacking Bakhmut from the east and southeast. I have kept the front lines the same since I lack new information on the exact locations of the fighting. The fighting here is very heavy, with many casualties, but it isn't the primary concern for either Ukraine or Wagner.

Russia is attacking the Opytne/Ivanhrad area. Ivanhrad is essentially a street parallel to Opytne and is either partially or fully contested.

Opytne is under heavy assault, and some Russians claim to have rooted Ukraine out of the town, but I have not seen any proof, so I keep it marked as Ukrainian-controlled.

The most alarming parts of the Bakhmut area are Klishchiivka and the towns south. In the past three or so days, Russia has pushed substantially west, and as their infantry moves up, so do their artillery pieces.

As a result, Ukraine's supply roads (or whatever is left of them) are under heavy bombardment. If Russia continues pushing in this direction, they will eventually reach the highway, dramatically weakening Bakhmut.

Zelenopillya, Kurdyumivka, and Ozarianivka are in a similar position as Klishchiivka, although perhaps fairing a bit better at the moment. They are similarly under considerable pressure from infantry attacks and artillery strikes, but they have not lost as much ground.

This area south of Bakhmut is critically important to the city's defense. Russia performs human wave-style attacks on these positions, supported by massive artillery barrages and tanks.

The loss ratio in these attacks is somewhere between1:5 and 1:10. Meaning every lost Ukrainian is 5 to 10 lost Russians, depending on the attack. But Ukraine is also suffering a lot of casualties in these attacks.

Artillery bombardments have long since erased the terrain features, and as a result, there are very long sight lines, and one can see attacks and movements from very far away.

Wagner attacks so many places from so many angles simultaneously that Ukrainian artillery cannot cover it all. And they do so with the size and frequency that they are slowly capturing ground and are getting critically close to essential roadways. The situation is precarious.

That said, the defenses within Bakhmut are strong, and Ukraine is well prepared for urban combat. Wagner knows that any attempted assault on this city would come with very high casualties, which is why they send human wave attacks to reach the highway.

They think the enormous losses in these attacks are less than what they would suffer within the city. Keep that in mind when you hear Russian claims that they are already inside Bakhmut.

Further south of Bakhmut, Russia is still assaulting Ukrainian positions near Mayorsk. Mayorsk is a fortified train station and has been on the front line since 2014.

Russia is attempting to surround Avdiivka; its capture, along with Bakhmut, is a primary goal for Russia.

To the north of Avdiivka, Russia is attacking the tiny town of Vesele. So small it isn't even labeled on the map. The town is under a small hill just over 200 meters tall.

South of Avdiivka, the small town of Opytne is in trouble. The entire village is contested, and Russia could take control of this town in the coming days.

This capture would weaken the defense of Vodyane, which is adjacent to the west, the southern flank of Avdiivka, and the towns immediately north of Opytne and Vodyane, such as Sjeverne and Tonenke. You also wonder about the fate of Zenith to the east (the blue castle icon).

There is still fighting in Vodyane, but I do not have particular news of the town. It is intimately connected to Opytne to the east and Pervomaiske to the west. Both are adjacent and connected to Vodyane.

Russia attempted a breakthrough in Pervomaiske using two tank companies supported by infantry. A tank company is ten tanks, although typically you only use half in an offensive operation, so this attack was likely around ten tanks plus infantry with their BMP/BTR.

Ukraine repulsed this attack, and Pervomaiske remains in Ukrainian control.

South of Pervomaiske, Russia has attempted multiple breakthroughs in Nevelske over the past few days. Russia heavily shells the area with heavy artillery between these offensive actions.

Like the area south of Bakhmut, Russia is using large waves of attacks on Pervomaiske and Nevelske to overwhelm the Ukrainian defenders. Combined with the substantial artillery barrages, they slowly widdle down the defenses and push Ukraine out of their positions.

It is unclear how long Ukraine can withstand these attacks, but they inflict massive casualties on the Russian attackers. Albeit with significant attrition to their forces as well.

Krasnohorivka is south of Nevelske and Pervomaiske, but its fate is linked to theirs. After capturing Nevelske, Russia plans to turn south and attack Krasnohorivka from the north and east. For now, Krasnohorivka is taking light mortar fire and occasionally small arms fire.

South of Krasnohorivka is Marinka, which, like Nevelske, is suffering absolutely enormous artillery barrages followed by large infantry attacks.

Russia claims to be making some moderate progress in the northern part of Marinka. Still, Ukraine firmly controls the west, and Marinka is a mercurial place where minor advances come and go.

South of Marinka, Russia is attacking Novomykhailivka. Their goal is to push through Novomykhailivka and Paraskoviivka to get to Kostyantynivka. From there, they could begin to attack Marinka from the south and west. However, they cannot crack Novomykhailivka.

Southwest of Novomykhailivka, you have Pavlivka and Vuhledar. Russia is expending significant resources attacking Pavlivka, and today they posted a propaganda video as "proof" that they captured the town.

They hoisted a flag in the southeast, one black into the city, where I have placed a flag marker, this area has been contested for about two weeks, and placing a flag here does nothing to show a "capture."

This video did little more than sucker gullible people into believing there could be a capture when the reality is nothing on the ground changed in an embarrassingly transparent attempt to cover up their total failure in Kherson.

So ends my trip around the Donetsk front. It contains the vast majority of the ongoing fighting, the heaviest fighting, and the most casualties (for both sides).