Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Nov 11, 2022 37 tweets 11 min read Read on X
Here is the current situation on the Donetsk front (plus one town in Luhansk). #ukrdailyupdate

Ff you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
First, the Luhansk town, Bilohorivka, Russia, controls the northern outskirts of the town, and they are attacking the south. Capturing this town is a priority for Russia. To my knowledge, they've had no success attacking in the past few days.
The other Bilohorivka is also contested. Wagner appears to control the southern half of the town, as I have it marked on the map. While this isn't confirmed, it seems likely true, so I have marked it this way on the map. The map could change if more information comes out.
There is heavy fighting around Yakovlivka. Russia cannot attack the town head-on, so they have been trying to move around its flanks for months. They've yet to make progress, especially compared to the months of fighting.
Although in recent days, they may have moved a little more. I am unsure of the extent, so the map is unchanged.
In Soledar, there is heavy fighting, but I don't see much movement. Only a lot of casualties for both sides. Russia still controls the Knauf Gips factory and a few minor streets to the north of the factory. Note that everything south of the factory is Bakhmutske and not Soledar.
Russia is pushing south from the Knauf Gips factory into Bakhmutske, which isn't a new development. They've been attempting this for weeks. They now claim to have captured control over the bits of Bakhmutske south and east of the T1302 highway. I haven't seen proof.
Russia is attacking Bakhmut from the east and southeast. I have kept the front lines the same since I lack new information on the exact locations of the fighting. The fighting here is very heavy, with many casualties, but it isn't the primary concern for either Ukraine or Wagner.
Russia is attacking the Opytne/Ivanhrad area. Ivanhrad is essentially a street parallel to Opytne and is either partially or fully contested.
Opytne is under heavy assault, and some Russians claim to have rooted Ukraine out of the town, but I have not seen any proof, so I keep it marked as Ukrainian-controlled.
The most alarming parts of the Bakhmut area are Klishchiivka and the towns south. In the past three or so days, Russia has pushed substantially west, and as their infantry moves up, so do their artillery pieces.
As a result, Ukraine's supply roads (or whatever is left of them) are under heavy bombardment. If Russia continues pushing in this direction, they will eventually reach the highway, dramatically weakening Bakhmut.
Zelenopillya, Kurdyumivka, and Ozarianivka are in a similar position as Klishchiivka, although perhaps fairing a bit better at the moment. They are similarly under considerable pressure from infantry attacks and artillery strikes, but they have not lost as much ground.
This area south of Bakhmut is critically important to the city's defense. Russia performs human wave-style attacks on these positions, supported by massive artillery barrages and tanks.
The loss ratio in these attacks is somewhere between1:5 and 1:10. Meaning every lost Ukrainian is 5 to 10 lost Russians, depending on the attack. But Ukraine is also suffering a lot of casualties in these attacks.
Artillery bombardments have long since erased the terrain features, and as a result, there are very long sight lines, and one can see attacks and movements from very far away.
Wagner attacks so many places from so many angles simultaneously that Ukrainian artillery cannot cover it all. And they do so with the size and frequency that they are slowly capturing ground and are getting critically close to essential roadways. The situation is precarious.
That said, the defenses within Bakhmut are strong, and Ukraine is well prepared for urban combat. Wagner knows that any attempted assault on this city would come with very high casualties, which is why they send human wave attacks to reach the highway.
They think the enormous losses in these attacks are less than what they would suffer within the city. Keep that in mind when you hear Russian claims that they are already inside Bakhmut.
Further south of Bakhmut, Russia is still assaulting Ukrainian positions near Mayorsk. Mayorsk is a fortified train station and has been on the front line since 2014.
Russia is attempting to surround Avdiivka; its capture, along with Bakhmut, is a primary goal for Russia.
To the north of Avdiivka, Russia is attacking the tiny town of Vesele. So small it isn't even labeled on the map. The town is under a small hill just over 200 meters tall.
South of Avdiivka, the small town of Opytne is in trouble. The entire village is contested, and Russia could take control of this town in the coming days.
This capture would weaken the defense of Vodyane, which is adjacent to the west, the southern flank of Avdiivka, and the towns immediately north of Opytne and Vodyane, such as Sjeverne and Tonenke. You also wonder about the fate of Zenith to the east (the blue castle icon).
There is still fighting in Vodyane, but I do not have particular news of the town. It is intimately connected to Opytne to the east and Pervomaiske to the west. Both are adjacent and connected to Vodyane.
Russia attempted a breakthrough in Pervomaiske using two tank companies supported by infantry. A tank company is ten tanks, although typically you only use half in an offensive operation, so this attack was likely around ten tanks plus infantry with their BMP/BTR.
Ukraine repulsed this attack, and Pervomaiske remains in Ukrainian control.

South of Pervomaiske, Russia has attempted multiple breakthroughs in Nevelske over the past few days. Russia heavily shells the area with heavy artillery between these offensive actions.
Like the area south of Bakhmut, Russia is using large waves of attacks on Pervomaiske and Nevelske to overwhelm the Ukrainian defenders. Combined with the substantial artillery barrages, they slowly widdle down the defenses and push Ukraine out of their positions.
It is unclear how long Ukraine can withstand these attacks, but they inflict massive casualties on the Russian attackers. Albeit with significant attrition to their forces as well.
Krasnohorivka is south of Nevelske and Pervomaiske, but its fate is linked to theirs. After capturing Nevelske, Russia plans to turn south and attack Krasnohorivka from the north and east. For now, Krasnohorivka is taking light mortar fire and occasionally small arms fire.
South of Krasnohorivka is Marinka, which, like Nevelske, is suffering absolutely enormous artillery barrages followed by large infantry attacks.
Russia claims to be making some moderate progress in the northern part of Marinka. Still, Ukraine firmly controls the west, and Marinka is a mercurial place where minor advances come and go.
South of Marinka, Russia is attacking Novomykhailivka. Their goal is to push through Novomykhailivka and Paraskoviivka to get to Kostyantynivka. From there, they could begin to attack Marinka from the south and west. However, they cannot crack Novomykhailivka.
Southwest of Novomykhailivka, you have Pavlivka and Vuhledar. Russia is expending significant resources attacking Pavlivka, and today they posted a propaganda video as "proof" that they captured the town.
They hoisted a flag in the southeast, one black into the city, where I have placed a flag marker, this area has been contested for about two weeks, and placing a flag here does nothing to show a "capture."
This video did little more than sucker gullible people into believing there could be a capture when the reality is nothing on the ground changed in an embarrassingly transparent attempt to cover up their total failure in Kherson.
So ends my trip around the Donetsk front. It contains the vast majority of the ongoing fighting, the heaviest fighting, and the most casualties (for both sides).

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Oct 28
The war in Ukraine took a turn in June of 2023 when Ukraine launched a counter-offensive south in an attempt to break through toward Tokmak. This decision has influenced every event that has followed, leading to disastrous consequences for Ukraine. I will not go into depth about the offensive south, but in short, Ukraine burned through its ammo stockpile and 12 of its best brigades. The offensive badly weakened these brigades and eliminated Ukraine's already limited flexibility regarding rotating troops and responding to threats.

Immediately upon the conclusion of this offensive, Russia launched a large offensive on Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka. Avdiivka is a small suburb northwest of Donetsk city, and Novomykhailivka is a small village south of Donetsk. Russia's ultimate goal was to break through to the city of Kurakhove, which is a small city west of Donetsk and is the westernmost significant defensive position constructed by Ukraine on the Donetsk front. In essence, Russia's goal was to break through the Donetsk defensive line and force Ukraine to defend weakly defended territory.
Ukraine's Donetsk defensive line was well-constructed and relatively strong. As such, it required fewer soldiers to successfully defend and more soldiers to successfully assault. This created a defensive advantage for Ukraine, which helped ease its relative manpower limitations compared to Russia. Once Ukraine is removed from these strong defensive lines, it requires more men to defend the same amount of area and also fewer men to successfully assault, which gives Russia the advantage due to its superior manpower.

To succeed, Russia would have to create a large manpower advantage in a localized area to break through the hardened defensive lines. Once broken, Russia could then splinter its manpower into many smaller attacks and attack many places simultaneously.
I could review the timeline and list the settlements attacked, and my initial draft of this post included this information. But instead, I will cut to the chase. After capturing Aviivka, Russia simultaneously attacked many locations along the entire eastern front. At first, Ukraine could withstand the attacks, but with each lost position, Ukraine became increasingly weaker. Finally, the fall of Ocheretyne, the next railway stop northwest of Avdiivka, fell. This loss opened the floodgates that allowed Russia to flow across the Donbas and capture many settlements in a short time.

Ukraine has now reached a point where it has insufficient manpower to mount a proper defense. Even after shortening the length of its defensive line to increase the density of its troops, it still lacks the strength to stop the Russian advance.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 27
Russians have effectively broken through the line of defense that was behind Vuhledar by getting into the middle of Bohoyavlenka. This defense line I was hoping could last at least 2-3 months, but was lost in 1. Largely due to extremely heavy bombing and horribly insufficient preparation by ukriane.
In essence, Ukraine spent 2 years defending their forward positions to buy time, and used that time doing nothing to prepare the next line of defense.
There really is no excuse Ukraine has for this failure. You have to point the finger at Zelensky. He is personally responsible for this. It was his job to defend Ukraine. You cannot blame "western partners" for failing to make the most basic defenses in your most critical areas.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 22
Yesterday a bunch of Russian trolls were trying to tell me Russia doesn’t strike schools, so here is an example of such a thing. It is the most memorable strike to me, the videos of wounded educators being pulled out of the destroyed school is etched into my memory.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 6
Russia attacked a bus in Sumy with a drone.

"According to the investigation, on October 5, 2024, at around 3:30 p.m., using methods of warfare prohibited by international law, the enemy drone attacked a bus traveling through the territory of the Rychkiv community of the Sumy district.

As a result of the attack of the occupiers, three passengers were injured - a 65-year-old man and 54-year-old and 63-year-old women."Image
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"‼️Today, the enemy once again committed a war crime against the civilian population of Sumy Oblast.

⚫️ In the Rychkiv community of the Sumy district, Russians dropped an explosive device from a UAV on the Sumy-Richki shuttle bus.

✔️As a result of the explosion, three civilians were injured and a shuttle bus was damaged.

☝️ We ask the residents of the Sumy region to be as attentive and careful as possible, to observe air warning signals and safety rules.

📍The security and defense forces of Ukraine will not forgive these crimes and all war criminals of the terrorist country will be punished."Image
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Read 4 tweets
Sep 6
I am not convinced Russians actually control the area west of the canal in Chasiv Yar. We’ve been geolocating Russians there for a while, if you scroll back through our map you can see the geolocations and you can see the videos. You can see what the area looks like.
That area is not conducive to being controlled by anyone, Ukraine has thick drone coverage, and anyone who passes through the area has a very high chance of dying. Furthermore, the structures are completely destroyed and there arent many suitable places for defense.
I doubt anyone controls this area. I doubt anyone could control the area no matter how much they wanted to or how many resources they put into it.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 1
Russia is currently bombing Kurakhove into nothingness. They are systematically bombing the entire place into dust. Dropping every weapon they have on it. Glide bombs, tactical cruise missiles, artillery, rockets. They are trying to turn it to dust, to completely erase it.
Kurakhove is the anchor to the Ukrainian defensive strategy, it links their eastern line to their southern line. You can think of two concentric circles. There is the outer circle, that is Kurakhove. And the inner circle, that is Kurakhivka. Together they form this anchor.
Between the two is a giant reservoir. Russia is attacking Kurakhivka from the north. They are moving closer and closer to it. And now they are turning Kurakhove to dust.
Read 12 tweets

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