(1) Sometimes quiet warnings work best. The acute phase of COVID-19 is less important than chronic phase.
(2) Some warned clearly.
Clear early warning signals are there for everyone to read.
😢
(3) Violating the precautinary principle, others were offered large platforms to mislead the public.
(4) Now we face a global catastrophe.
(5) China, last #ZeroCovid country, struggles. Economists speculate when SARS-CoV-2 will defeat it. I won't ridicule the short-term questions. Vital to system dynamicists and humanity is the inverse: what societies can learn fast enough to return to #清零?
(6) There is another layer here: the role of science and lack of international regulation in GOF research. These are challenging questions that most people choose to ignore - for understandable and valid reasons. I assume the people who matter are aware.
(7) With CRISPR/Cas9 and lack of oversight & accountability in virology labs, we face urgent global governance problems. Everyone has known for years; it's a common plot line in popular thrillers as you find in any small airport or train station bookstore. science.org/content/articl…
@Globalbiosec introduces the resulting governance challenges well in her book. unsw.press/books/dark-win…
(8) Under hashtags like #ZeroCovid #清零 (#5), you find a trashfire of disinformation, and some high-quality content. People untrained to counter "flooding the zone" tactics will be helpless. This syndemic extends into the information sphere.
Other smart people use similar terms like polycrisis (@doctorow @brittwray) - also fine. Syndemic is the medical term to unite climate, ecology, energy + information, and public health.
En fin: Climate and governance scholars need to step up, we need you.
@doctorow @brittwray Three polycrisis (syndemic :) threads worth reading:
(9) Back to urgent epi questions. Given complement-mediated pathogenesis in SARS-CoV-2, here Ted's Japanese haplogroups D & E hypothesis (why?). Japan is not fine. Note the paleo climate links. - All above my nonexistent pay class. nature.com/articles/jhg20…
(10) Without data, no epidemiology. As free PCR tests were cut back, LongSARS (='LongCovid') isn't even tracked, and international surveillance remains poor, no one knows what's going on.
The first syndemic lesson is that we face a political, no epidemiological, problem. @rki_de
@rki_de (11) Throughout the pandemic, Japan had about a two-week lag from peak cases to peak deaths. Whatever happened - the pattern broke ("decoupling"), & deaths just keeps going up. (See @T_Brautigan on this)
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