Thread by @JiangJiang43

#China's new #COVID responses will have an impact similar to the "J-curve effect" on its economy, Han Wenxiu, an official with the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, said on Saturday. (source: Xinhua/Caixin) A thread:/1

When viewed as a whole, the optimized COVID control & prevention measures will disrupt economic operations in the short term, but will be a significant benefit throughout the year, said Han at an economic conference held by China Center for International Economic Exchanges./2

China's economic data in the 1st quarter of 2023 are expected to be relatively low, but a significant rebound in the 2nd quarter is expected, and the order of social production and life will accelerate to recover, said Han. /3

All parties should improve their overall perspective, take responsibility for stabilizing the macroeconomy, quickly identify & correct deviations in policy implementation, and clean up & repeal policy documents that are antithetical to high-quality development, said Han./4

Han noted that China's economic growth in 2022 fell short of the expected target set at the beginning of the year, but many other indicators were accomplished, & China's total economic volume is expected to exceed 120 trillion yuan in 2022 (about 17 trillion U.S. dollars)./5

The global economy is expected to grow at a much slower rate in 2023, while the Chinese economy is expected to pick up overall, forming an independent upward trajectory, Han said./6

China's economic development faces many obstacles in the coming year, Han noted, saying that insufficient #demand has emerged as a major stumbling block in China's economic operation. Recovery & increasing consumption must be our top priorities. /7

We must encourage &guide the growth of the private sector while enhancing the core competitiveness of state-owned businesses, Han said, adding that it is important to protect private enterprise property rights & the rights & interests of entrepreneurs in accordance with the law/8

Preventing and resolving risks in the real estate market is a top priority...We must eliminate the drawbacks of years of high debt, high leverage, & high turnover development models, & promote the real estate industry's smooth transition to a new development model, he said./9

Notes: 1) On Sunday, a commentary on the People’s Daily, the party’s flagship mouthpiece, stressed the need to strengthen confidence & strive to achieve the goals & tasks of economic & social development set by China's recently concluded annual Central Economic Work Conference/10

2) According to several epidemic research models at home & abroad, the 1st wave of the epidemic in Zhejiang province is expected to peak around mid-Jan. 2023, & the possibility of an earlier arrival cannot be ruled out, coinciding with the Lunar New Year, during which/11

the epidemic will spread faster along with population movements, according to a Zhejiang government news release issued on Sunday, stressing the need to work scientifically & precisely in response to the epidemic. /12 (source: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/eMI_hR6PwQb3…)

3)China is currently in the 1st of an expected 3 waves of COVID cases this winter, according to the country’s chief epidemiologist, Wu Zunyou.He said the 1st wave is mainly in cities. The 2nd wave will be from late Jan. to mid-Feb. due to the movement of ppl before the Chinese/13

New Year. The third wave is from late February to mid-March, when people return to work after the Spring Festival. He said that had the strict containment policies been lifted at the beginning of 2022, 866,000-103,000 more deaths would occur in China's mainland in 2022./14

Wu stressed that the most important thing to cope with the epidemic this winter is to get a booster shot./15 end

source: 1.Xinhua: baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=175248260… 2. Caixin: finance.caixin.com/2022-12-18/101… 3.People's Daily opinion.people.com.cn/n1/2022/1218/c… 4. m.gmw.cn/baijia/2022-12…