Thread by @alistairmilne

I had a decent track record for predictions until 2022. A combination of macro influence and full-retard actions has forced #Bitcoin to break most models and completely detatch from fundamentals

So let's try again...

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I still believe that the #Bitcoin halving creates a 'cycle' pattern that is deteriorating with time (signal attenuation) due to smaller % reductions in inflation.

The best model I've seen for predicting the price uses an autocorrelation model from this signal.

So what's it say?

Well, the model had a floor price for 2022 circa $25,000 and has already bottomed.

2023 is clearly a year of of consolidation and reparation as so much confidence has been lost. However, HODL'ing has never been so high. The price is being set by forced sellers and weak hands.

We should see at least ~$45k by end of 2023 (which you might discount due to the damage done). Alternatively if central banks decide to tollerate a higher inflation target (e.g. cut earlier to avoid recession despite 3-4% inflation), hard assets may become en vogue again.

But with the halving in April 2024, we should see $150-300k by end 2024. If you take a 2-year view, this is no time to be bearish and is likely peak opportunity for the bulls.

I am basically all-in again (baring capital I expect to use for other things during the next 2/3 years)

Things will, as usual, escalate quickly when #Bitcoin breaks its prior ATH and proves is resilience yet again.

I believe we're in the equivalent of late 2015, absolute despondency and depression

So, that's enough about price ... what else?

Safe bets: MtGox releases BTC to creditors finally, causing FUD and a short-term opportunity

SBF will try do a deal in return for a guilty plea, and much to everyone's annoyance get a reduced sentence. The prosecutor just wants an easy win rather than a messy trial.

Moderate risk: CSW will flea the UK or face jail for perjury/perverting the course of justice, etc.

There will be a Litecoin halving rally, which will baffle most - confirming we're in 2015/16 of the cycle

Twitter will integrate a #Bitcoin wallet with lightning enabled

High risk: One or more notable banks disclose their Bitcoin holdings

SpaceX will float, revealing their BTC holdings for the first time

Facebook finally integrates a 'crypto' wallet somehow, will not emphasise Bitcoin (because Winklevoss bros) but the majority will use Bitcoin

GBTC gets close to fair value in 2023 thanks to their tender offer. Doesn't go to a premium until 2024, causing #Bitcoin to start to fly

SEC attempts to stomp on this effect, granting their ETF application finally - but only when it is at a premium!

Overall, I expect 'VC coins' to remain unpopular given how screwed people have been by them.

We will probably see the trend in 'Dino coins' continue as these have been through a few cycles and have fairer distribution

Dark horse for 2023: Monero