Investor / entrepreneur. Focused on #Bitcoin / CIO - Altana Digital Currency Fund since 2014
Dec 29, 2023 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
My 2024 predictions thread
"The 7 stars align"
If I am right, and clearly there is a significant probabiltiy I am wrong, 2024 (and maybe 2025) will see Bitcoin's biggest bull market ever
This is because of the stars that are now all aligning:
Dec 14, 2023 • 15 tweets • 2 min read
Some more 'old man' advice for the upcoming 12-18 months of crypto insanity...
1/ 99% of the people posting their trades are gaslighting you for engagement. They don't post their losing trades for a reason. For most people, simply buying and holding is the best strategy
Mar 31, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I think #Bitcoin is at the equivalent of the end of 2015 in its cycle...
Yellow bars are from 2021 to date
Some reasons:
- max dispondency following FTX bankrupcy, LUNA, 3AC, etc. Worse than 2018/19
- two years since first peak in 2021
- halving ~12 months away
- 1-year HODL'ing plateauing at new ATHs as per 2015/16
Dec 30, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
I had a decent track record for predictions until 2022. A combination of macro influence and full-retard actions has forced #Bitcoin to break most models and completely detatch from fundamentals
So let's try again...
🧵
I still believe that the #Bitcoin halving creates a 'cycle' pattern that is deteriorating with time (signal attenuation) due to smaller % reductions in inflation.
The best model I've seen for predicting the price uses an autocorrelation model from this signal.
