This is an important series of photos demonstrating a Russian S-300 missile converted to land attack with an enhanced high explosive blast as opposed to a anti-aircraft fragmentation warhead.
Battle Damage Assessment 🧵
1/12
Where are the high speed metal fragment strikes in this photo?
Heck, you have mostly intact wooden debris that the blast generated from the building, which fell into the crater.
2/12
This is what a properly functioning S-300 fragmentation warhead looks like when detonating at night.
3/12
This is what the ~300lb 5ZH92 fragmentation warhead for 5V55K S-300 missile looks like when it fails to detonate, along with an infographic of where the warhead is located in the missile.
4/11
These are what high velocity airburst artillery fragmentation hits looks like on a brick building.
5/12
And these are what the a similar Soviet technology warhead fragments of a Buk missile fragmentation warhead look like and how they damaged Flight MH17's wreckage.
Note the consistent pre-fragmentation of a Buk warhead for anti-aircraft effect.
6/12
The ceilings & inside walls of this Ukrainian police station opposite the windows should have dozens of uniform sized high velocity fragment strikes, given the short distance from the impact crater.
It's what a 5ZH92 warhead is designed to do.
7/12
The scorch/soot marks on the previous brick wall and on the cars below are consistent with an 'enhanced blast,' AKA FAE, AKA thermobaric warhead...
...NOT a standard ~300lb 5ZH92 fragmentation warhead for 5V55K S-300 missile.
8/12
This constitutes a warhead upgrade from previous Russian land attack modified S-300 missile strikes.
9/12
Given the small size of the S-300 missile impact crater compared to others seen in Ukraine for the Mach 6.7 at engine burn out 5V55 missiles.
We are looking at an extended range semi-ballistic missile shot.
10/12
One of the Cold War gray beards I correspond with places that range at about ~150 km.
Assuming I tagged the correct Lyman (not a given).
The S-300 launcher that did that strike could be in any Russian or Russian occupied Ukrainian territory in the blue circle below.
11/12
This is Exhibit A of why a unconstrained 300km ranged ATACMS missile in Ukraine's arsenal would help defend Ukraine's civilian population from Russian missile strikes.
Like Russian artillery depots were pushed back by GMLRS 80 km.
ATACMS would push S-300 back 280 km.
12/12 End
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