2022 was a real blood bath for #Russian intelligence services in Europe. Arrests, expulsions and de-conspirations made Russian spy life harder. I have put together quick dashboard with known cases (last 5 years). Let's have a look what we know. 1/🧵
datastudio.google.com/s/gFDRAvAND3A
More than 30 cases were revealed in last 5 years across the Europe. Vast majority of them happened in last 12 months. Bulgaria, Germany and Sweden seen most arrests. 2/
Who was recruiting? Based on available data, #GRU is uncontested winner. This shows progressive militarisation of #Russian #intelligence work as well as choice of priorities. 3/
It is also clearly visible in the type of recruited assets. Army personel and other uniformed services are dominating pool of recruitment candidates. 4/
Even assets with civilian cover were mostly tasked with intelligence gathering on military. If you haven't already, take a look at great work of @christogrozev and @bellingcat showcasing use of civilian asset against NATO personel in Italy. 5/ bellingcat.com/news/2022/08/2…
Russian services are (luckily) attached to old ways of intelligence work. Active cases involve mostly Russian born agents. Arrests in Sweden also showed use of "iron curtain" style deep cover agents (have my doubts regarding efficiency of this method). 6/
It looks like working for Russian intel is not only risky but also not overly profitable. P. Bucka, v-rector of Slovak Armed Forces Academy got 46,000EUR for 9 years of "service". Bulgarian ring was much better off with up to 3000USD per agent. 7/ veridica.ro/en/editorials/…
What to expect in 2023? Probably more difficult moments for Russian intel networks in Europe. More than 400 diplomats were expelled from western countries since the invasion. That is seriously impacting RU ability to handle sources on the ground and recruit new ones. 8/
You can browse Russian Spy Cases in Europe through my dashboard. I will add new ones as they will be revealed. Let me know if I missed any. 9/ datastudio.google.com/s/gFDRAvAND3A
Russian Spy Cases in Europe Dashboard 👀 10/ @john_sipher @christogrozev @EliotHiggins @Sandbagger_01 @PutinIsAVirus @MarkGaleotti @Andrew_S_Bowen #UkraineRussiaWar #intelligence #Spying
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