Thread by @TomKislingbury

With the 2022 #FFIDP regular season in the books I'm going to post my projections vs reality.
As always.
There's good.
There's bad.
There's meh.
But I put those numbers out. I'd better be honest about how useful/close/decent they are.

A few things:
Players that move teams in-season are included as per original projections, but marked with seasonal numbers.
So for example Bradley Chubb appears on the DEN sheet, but all his MIA numbers count.

In my mind I'm saying a certain player will put up these numbers. Obviously we can't predict trades, but if you draft that player, you control his fate. So the pts he scores are the recommendation.
Regardless of how fate alters how he gets them.

Similarly I don't include players who were not in my original projections for whatever reason.
If I didn't include them back pre-season, then there's no point me saying I had 00s for everything.
I missed him.
My fault.
I don't change my predicted numbers at all once locked.

Injuries are [obviously] a huge factor in predicting football numbers.
#FFIDP especially because of injury rates for defenders.
This cuts both ways.
Some players will be close to my #s, but would have recorded more if they had avoided injury.

Some players would have recorded far lower numbers, but someone else got hurt and they took advantage of the playing time.
I don't deal with "if this guys hadn't got hurt then..."
I deal with what happened.
That's what I'm trying to predict.

Otherwise the whole exercise is worthless.
Because players get hurt all the time.
So who cares what would happen if they did not?
It's hypothetical nonsense.

OK.
Let's get to the numbers shall we?

The Cardinals.
Im pretty happy with both LBs here.
[If you can even call 2022 I Simmons a LB].
Both Ss about 20 tackles out.
Watt was interesting. Very few tackles, but a massive pressure:sack ratio threw me out. And those batted basses!

I was correct that Markus Golden would be the only edge with decent volume, but his horrendous pressure conversion ratio through my sack #s out.
CBs were a bit light.
And I was flat out wrong on Trayvon Mullen over Marco Wilson.

"Markus Golden is one of those guys who just knows how to finish...oh".

Falcons.
I thought I ws going to look silly on Grady Jarrett. But actually he came out pretty good. Pass rush #s especially.
My pessimistic views on their edge group were all founded. But Lorenzo C at least racked up tackles.

LB ws interesting.
My stance was that all the top 4 guys would chop and change.
Actually Rashaan Evans played over 1100 snaps [!] and they traded Jones away.
So not a great unit overall.

In the secondary I had the tackle numbers wrong.
The top Ss had +60 tackles on me.
The top CBs had -87 on me.

Ravens.
I'm pretty pleased with the DI guys. Although I should've flipped Pierce and Washington.
Ojabo/Houston were wrong on the edge.
I was pretty vocal on Odafe not being what people thought he was after his rookie season.
Should have gone harder on that.

The Roquan trade obviously threw LB out, but Pat Queen still ended up playing 200 more snaps than I expected. And 15 more tackles than I saw coming.
3 of 4 top CBs were pretty good. But wrong on Kyle Fuller.

Safety was obviously tricky.
Not many people saw Kyle Hamilton only playing ~500 snaps. I was as wrong as everyone else there.
Marcus Williams got hurt and missed a chunk. So I was quite erong there too.
Which left Chuck Clark to play WAY more than I expected. About 3X more!

Bills.
They rotated all their linemen heavily.
As they have done for years.
It was not that hard to get that bit right, and then all the individual stats are relatively close.
Von M 30 pressures under, but sacks just 1 out.
Rousseau much better finishing than I expected.

Both LBs were 15 tackles out in either direction.
Playing time just more even than I expected given injury history.
That's quite common.
I'm happy with both with both of them overall.

In the secondary then injuries then Tre White and Micah Hyde both played less than I expected due to injury.
Which obviously opened the door to Damar Hamlin [💙♥️].
I'm fairly pleased with how I saw slot being handled across both units. The Bills are a bit unorthodox there

Panthers.
Let's start with the good:
Matt Ioannidis, Jaycee Horn, Donte Jackson, Xavier Woods and Myles Hartsfield are uncannily good IMO.
Really pleased with all those guys. Especially Ioannidis because I'm a big fan of his.

But a few things put me way out opn other, key players.
The firing of the coaching staff mid-season obviously threw things out schemewise.
Which contributed into both LBs playing much more than I expect.
And just like everyone else I did not see that Luvu season coming AT ALL.

Shaq Thompson stayed healthier than expected. Good on him. Im a fan of his too.
Brian Burns was a better rusher than I expected. Feels like I should have been closer there.
Jeremy Chinn got banged up.
No shock there, but I was way out on him.

Bears.
My starting point here was none of the linemen will be IDP relevant this year. And I was right there.
Less interested in the quibbles and foibles of Justin Jones playing more and Al-Quadin Muhammad falling short of modest totals.
My reco was avoid and that was sound.

LB is where it gets interesting.
Roquan got traded obvs. Aside from his assists I think I did a decent job on him. But he got 22 more assists than I expected, and that's significant.
Morrow played a lot more as a result of the trade. As did Sanborn [who I was way off as the #6].

The CBs are all over the place. No real wins there.
Eddie Jackson played <170 snaps, but racked up >30 tackles.
Brisker outtackled my numbers too.
Not great. Not too embarrassing.

Bengals.
I'm really happy with the LB volume here.
The Bengals use a slightly unusual rotation/time policy so that was nice to be close on. With all the counting stats falling into place.
I think that's a really solid group [aside from Germaine Pratt's weird PD number!].

Edge was solid too. Pressures and sacks especially so.
I should've accounted better for Hubbard/Trey H's tackle ability.
Interior not so good, and BJ Hills blew me away in most stats. Respect to him

CB - Mike Hilton was good. But Awuzie/Apple both not very good.
S was OK.
Having R1 pick Dax Hill at just 400 snaps was a good prediction.
Bell and Bates both came in well short in solo tackles, but aside from that mostly good.
Bates 4 INTs was out, but INTs are like that

Browns.
The D line is good here.
I'm particularly pleased with Myles Garrett. Just 7 pressures, 2 sacks and 1 tackle off.
Predicting high sack numbers is very hard [because of volatility].
All DI in the right ballpark.
Clowney, Winovich and Wright all thrown out by their health.

LB is another story.
JOK not good at all. The whole IDP world was off there.
And most of the others not particularly close either.
The unit is a ❌ for me.
Jacob Phillips does not make me happy

Secondary.
The corners mostly fine [w00t].
But S not great.
I was low on Grant Delpit for various reasons. But I've never had faith in him and he was very productive.
Hands up.
John Johnson was fine, but the takeout there was "dont draft" and that was pretty obvious.

Cowboys.
DI was pretty decent.
No big misses and I got the main hierarchy/usage pretty right.
DeMarcus Lawrence smashed me for tackles and pressures, but sacks were spot on.
Dorance Armstrong ended up good [after moving teams].
Pleased with the others too

Obvs the big 🐘 in the rom was Micah Parsons.
I had him down as a LB.
He played edge.
So I was way off on everything there.
I knew it was a possibility. But I was wrong.
LVE was a C grade.
Anthony Barr a B.

Here's Micah Parsons positional usage YoY btw.
His usage is badly understood, because most people think 'OLB' and modern off-ball LB are similar roles.
They are not.
he went from a LB who played some edge to an edge who played LB in a couple of games.
Very different.

Not great in the secondary.
The 🤠played much more 3-S packages than I expected.
Kearse missed more time.
Some decent ones in there [Hooker] but on the whole not great.

Broncos.
All the DIs were fine.
Dre'Mont Jones particularly good.
Bradley Chubb [moved teams obvs] pretty strong in pass rush stats.
But all the other edges off. Chubb's move obviously affected that.
Thems the breaks.

At LB I'm happy with Jewell and Jonas Griffith. But Alex Singleton blew me away with volume and his wild efficiency.
Much more on that through the offseason...

In the secondary PS2 was very good. I'll give myself an A for that.
Same for K'Waun Williams.
But Darby and Mathis both way off.
And nothing particularly good about the Ss either.

Lions.
Tough one to predict. Because they were bad and in constant flux.
Not much good on the interior line here.
In any definition.
I'm really happy with my Aidan Hutchinson #s though.
The rest of the edge was all over the place.
Here and IRL.

Anzalone played 129 more snaps than I said. And had 22 more tackles.
You all know what I think about that.
Malcolm Rodriguez started hot but cooled dramatically. Ended up OK as to my #s.
I suspect popular opinion on him is wildly skewed.

The secondary was a carcrash.
Im not really happy with any of those.
Also not too cut up about them because they were a mess on and off the field.
This defense sorely needs clarity.
And talent.
And consistency.
And... everything really.

Packers.
Pretty solid on the DI.
Im very happy with Kenny C and Dean Lowry.
Wyatt played even less than I expected, and Jarran Reed much more.
Edge was OK.
Smith was good. Gary obviously wrong because injury.
Which meant Enagbare played more as a rookie than I expected.

At LB I was pretty adamant on Quay Walker seeing limited snaps.
Campbell's injury obviously proved me wrong there.
So both ended up out.
Quay W averaged ~45 snaps / gm with Campbell.
Over 14 games [LBs miss ~2-3 gms on avg] that's 630.
Nice logic.
Just wrong!

In the 2ary Im really pleased with Jaire Alexander and Adrian Amos. Both are very close across the board.
Stokes and Douglas less good at CB.
Darnell Savage close, aside from his significant < on solo tackles. Which is kind of a big problem!

Texans.
Strong work for 3/4 of the top LBs here.
DI is acceptable [under a NO headline].
Edge was fine.
Greenard didn't get close, but I was much lower on him than most anyway so I'm OK with that.

In the secondary there's not much good here.
Jalen Pitre had a wild season [in tackles as well as his record-setting, historic missed tackles] which I did not see coming.
And I had Jonathan Owens as the #4.
Not great at all.

Colts.
Shaquille Leonard obviously miles out here. And Zaire Franklin too.
I'm at peace with those mistakes.
I don't think they were predictable.

On the Dline...
Buckner and Stewart absolutely slayed my tackle numbers. Pass rush numbers were good.
Kwity Paye was the opposite.
Ngakoue pretty close in volume and tackles, but miles out on pass rush numbers too.

I was low on Kenny Moore [remember he was being treated as a can't miss #1 CB], but still managed to be too high.
Stephon GIlmore the other way.
My overall S position was; changeable.
Pretty good on Blackmon and McLeod.
Nick Cross' noseplant made me wrong on him and Rodney Thomas

Remember although Nick Cross played just 6 def snaps after W2 he was active and playing special teams the whole time.
The team just decided after 2 games that he was not in their top 3 safety options.
Not ideal for a day 2 pick.

Jags.
Josh Allen was acceptable overall.
Travon Walker and Arden Key very good.
DI mixed.
Overall good, but Davon Hamilton's tackles surprised me.
And I underrated Dawuane Smoot.

Oluokun obviously destroyed my tackle numbers.
But Devin Lloyd and Chad Muma were very close all round.
So a very mixed bag!

No very good DB predictions [I dont care about Tre Herndon].
Both top safeties stayed healthier and di more than I expected.
Tyson Campbell had himself a year at CB.

Chiefs.
Chris Jones exceeded expectations.
He's obviously really good - but I didn't call a DI1 season.
All the edges much closer.
I'm happy with those.

LB was obviously a failure.
I was very solidly not expecting a major change in usage and Nick Bolton playing every snap blindsided me.
I'm still happy wit my process and logic.
I just happened to be wrong this time.
Willie Gay was very good though. As was Darius Harris [!].

Secondary.
L'Jarius Sneed drastically > my #s. That always happens with at least one corner.
Good luck to him.
Obvs dont expect him to do the same again.
Safeties were much better. Thornhill and Reid were good projections all round

We're halfway through!
Woo!

Chargers.
Joey Bosa hurt of course.
Im much happier with Khalil Mack and Kyle Van Noy.
Seb J-D way up on tackles, down on pass rush.
Pretty off on all the DI players TBH.

I'm quite pleased with the LBs.
That was a tough situation to predict.
Tranquill's sacks blindsided me, and tackles were both >10 over, but still I think that's pretty solid for a muddled sitch.

JC Jackson's faceplant made me wrong of course.
Asante Samuel Jr and Bryce Callahan much better.
Im pretty happy with the top 2 safeties. Solid all round there.

Rams.
Aaron Donald's bad season [for his standards] surprised me. Just like everyone else.
Robinson and Gaines much better.
Im pleased with edge except for Terrell Lewis. I was way too optimistic on him.
He literally had 10% of the pressures I said!

LB was mixed.
Bobby Wagner numbers here are very good, even with >3 sacks.
Ernest Jones overdelivered against my #s, but he was still the #42 LB in snaps.
I remain much lower than most others there and Im happy with that.

Jalen Ramsey was pretty uncannily accurate. Troy Hill not far behind.
Taylor Rapp very good.
Jordan Fuller and Nick Scott wildly wrong.

Raiders.
Really happy with Billings and Nichols at DI.
Not so much the others!
Maxxx was very good for me in assists, pressures and sacks. But his otherworldly solo tackles obviously >>me.
If anyone predicted close to those numbers then they're bananas.

No.
Saying vague "he could have a really good season" does not count there.
Be specific.
Be accountable.
That's the point of this.

I'm actually happy with the LBs.
Perryman <10 tackles.
Deable <4.
Brown >1.
I think that's excellent going given the uncertainty and turmoil there.

The DBs are basically C grades all over.
No wild failures [beyond maybe Duron Harmon] but also nothing especially good.

Dolphins.
Obvs Christian Wilkins mad tackle #s blew me away.
My pass rush #'s for all DIs were very good though.
Ogbah's faceplant made me wrong there.
Jaelan Phillips was >> too, although his sacks were weirdly low and not too bad.

Jerome Baker was an A grade. 1 tackle out. Bang on for sacks.
Elandon Roberts way more tackles than expected.
Rookie Channing Tindall as LB3 proved... optimistic.

Byron Jones did not play.
The other CBs merely OK at best.
Brandon Jones hurt.
Jevon Holland better than I expected.
Eric Rowe pretty dang good.

Vikes.
DI was mostly OK.
Should've had Bullard and Phillips swapped over.
Mostly happy with the top 3 edges.
Remember a year ago people legit thought DJ Wonnum was a good player. Ha!

Both top LBs > me in snaps and therefore other numbers.
Brian Asamoah was laughably overdrafted in dyno rookie drafts.

Lewis Cine's rookie season was a disaster. Hopefully he comes back healthy.
So Cam Bynum >> me.
Harrison Smith v good.
I'm pleased with both outside corners.
I was a bit low on Chandon Sullivan's tackles from the slot.

Patriots.
I was way too high on Christian Barmore. Big miss there.
Matt Judon's pass rush numbers smashed me of course. Mad season for him.
And in fact Wise and Uche were also out there.
Collctively 18 sacks > than me.
Oof.

Ja'Whaun Bentley took a much bigger role than I expected.
As did Jahlani Tavai [that PD in W18 was awesome from him].

I'm really happy with my S numbers.
Their 3-safety, 2-overhang package is really fun and they use it a lot.
Mostly good at CB aside from a notable miss on Jalen Mills.
V pleased with the others though

Saints.
Onyemata and Tuttle were good at DI.
Kentavius Street much less so with his bizarre sacks.
Not great across the edges.
Cam Jordan very mixed.
Marcus Davenport very disappointing.
Carl Granderson very tackley.

I was just 3 tackles and 1 sack out with Demario Davis, but he got there in a weird way.
I'll take it.
Pete Werner was >20 tackles over me though

Paulson Adebo, Bradley Roby and Tyrann Mathieu all excellent here.
Marcus Maye and Marshon Lattimore were way off with injury.
Im pleased overall.

Giants.
Dexter Lawrence's spectacular season blindsided me.
Great to see it. Dave Gettleman picked a good one there!
Pretty pleased with Lenny WIlliams though.
I was low on Ojulari, but still way too high.
Thibodeaux 4 tackles, 5 pressures and 3 sacks out. Not bad.

LB was not great.
You'll notice no Jaylon Smith here. I do not add in players I did not predict.

Top 2 CBs were OK.
But I was bad at safety.
Xavier McKinney was <<. [remember he was an IDP darling. People had him super high pre season].
And Julian Love was >> in tackles.

3 quarters done!

J-E-T-S.
I'm really pleased with the edge position here.
There was all sorts of crazy thoughts flying round about how it would pan out.
I didnt have Quinnen W as anything like what he produced.
Kudos to the big man for a big year.

CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams both vastly outtackled my numbers.
Not great for me there

Sauce Gardner's 14 PDs to my predicted 3 is an incredible ad for him.
What a rookie season he had.
Not much interesting elsewhere in the secondary.

Eagles.
Mostly pleased across the DL.
This Eages team recorded an incredible, unpredictable number of sacks.
So although everyone had more than I thought they would, it was just an anomalous year there.
Not annoyed I didn't see it coming at all.

I am pretty dang pleased with the LBs.
The world and his wife thought Nakobe Dean was going to be a stud as a rookie. He was being selected in the top 15 of all LBs in late summer rookie drafts.
I was too high by a lot, but still closer than the vast majority there

Cornerbacks pretty good here.
Safeties a LOT less so.

Steelers.
Everyone thought I was way too low on TJ Watt.
I was too high in the end.
Remember I factor in normal injury rates.
Most people assume 100% health.
That makes most projections 60% wrong off the bat.
Look at Cam Heyward. Uncannily close there. Nice

LB was a mess yet again for the Steelers. It's been a while since they were good there.
Even Shazier really only had 1 good year.
I'm pretty happy with my performance here.
All 3 ~15 tackles out which is decent.

All DBs pretty decent too.
Minkah bang on for 94 tackles is nice.
All the main corners <10 tackles out.
PDs really good across both positions too

49ers.
Best D in the NFL.
Kinlaw has let me down for the last time. I am out on him!
Really happy with Bosa here. 8 pressures and 4 sacks out is good going for an elite edge season [accuracy gets lower at extremes].
Armstead very bad here.

Both LBs managed to throw me off with tackles.
Warner >22 . Greenlaw >47!
Obviously Al-Shaair was a low-volume player but that was incredibly obvious.
It's wild that anyone ever thought he'd upgrade to a fulltime position with the other 2 healthy.
And they did. A lot.

Secondary very average at best.
Verrett did not play.
Lenoir was much higher up the pecking order.
West >me in tackles.
Jimmie Ward decent [from the slot].
Hufanga decently >me.

Seahawks.
Im chuffed with both LBs, every lineman [except Nwosu] and Quandre Diggs.
The corners are hideously, embarrassingly, shockingly bad. Prob my worst position group of the season.

Bucs.
The LBs are excellent here.
Across pretty much all stats bar David's snaps.
All the main DBs similarly very close.
Really pleased with all the back 7 ones here.

Up front it's a different story.
My DI volume is good as I had a good understanding of how that would pan out. But all of them threw me off with at least one major stat.
At edge Im V pleased by Tryon-Shoyinka and Ant Nelson, but Shaq Barrett obviously was very wrong

Titans.
Very mixed.
Jeffrey Simons pretty good.
All other major linemen had major errors.
I was decent with David Long on reduced volume, but bad on all other LBs.
Byards solid on the back end, but all other DBs had major errors too.
Not my best team.

Commanders.
Montez Sweat was good on the DL.
Butt again, all other major players with serious errors.
Chase Young the biggest offender!
Jamin Davis oookaaay at LB, but Holcomb quite far off.

In the secondary I'm very pleased with Bobby McCain. Pretty happy with Kam CUrl.
Not much else to be happy with.
I do not care how good I was on ben St-Juste.
At all.

Aaaaand we're done!

Thanks for your patience.
I know this is a long thread of numbers and repetition.
But I think it's important to be super transparent.
You can check all the numbers here with my final projections posted before the season if you want.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
100% transparent.

I implore you to ask your favourite analysts to show the same transparency.
The FF industry is so easy to hide in.
We can just pick things we predicted well and bang on about them and ignore all the failures, errors and bad assumptions.
That's not good.
It doesn't help anyone.

You can jujst ask simple questions "of your top 12 guys at that position, how many finished that high?"
"Of your top 48 how many finished outside of that range?"
Simple stuff.

And anyone worth their salt will respond and show you their numbers.
There's no reason not to - except of course for avoiding the truth.
And if someone does that to you... do you really want to trust them at all?