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undisciplined scholar, recovering academic | @AEI | @DNVA1 | @UCL | @CUBoulder | The Honest Broker ➡️

Feb 14, 2023, 18 tweets

What the media won't tell you about extreme weather and its impacts

Here is a thread of some of the figures I've posted in recent months about extreme weather that I have never seen in legacy media reporting

All peer-reviewed and official sources . . .

IPCC finds no trends in flooding globally

Did you know that flood impacts in the US as a proportion of wealth are down >70% over 80 years?

Huge news, good news!

But don't tell anyone 🥸…

The IPCC finds no long-term trends in meteorological or hydrological drought

In Western Europe specifically there is no trend in drought over >150 years…

US heat waves
The US government's official metric for heat waves comes from a paper I co-authored more than 20 years ago

It shows an increase since ~1960s but a decrease since <1930s…

US heat waves
During the past 50 years, when heat waves have increased, mortality from extreme heat has fallen pretty much everywhere in the US…

That is good news!
Let's keep it up

US (mainland) hurricanes
IPCC, WMO, UNNCA are all in agreement
No upwards trends in landfalling hurricanes, including the strongest storms

Have you ever seen these graphs in the media (aside from Bill Nye and his sharpie;)…

US disaster costs

As a proportion of GDP US disaster costs have gone down

More good news!…

European disaster costs

As a proportion of GDP European disaster losses have gone down

Even more good news!…

Global weather and climate disaster losses

As a proportion of GDP global disaster (weather and climate, but also overall) have gone down

Great news!…


This century the number of disasters tracked by EM-DAT has not increased, in fact down a bit

Important to understand why so that progress with respect to the Sendai Framework can be maintained!…

US tornadoes

Reports of the strongest US tornadoes (EF3+) which cause ~70% of death and destruction are down in the long and short terms…

Damage from tornadoes supports the data on falling numbers of the strongest tornadoes

Both inflation-adjusted and normalized tornado losses have decreased…

Normalized US hurricane losses

As we would expect with no up-trend in US landfalls there is no trend in normalized US hurricane losses since 1900…

Global hurricane landfalls

Lots of ups and downs over 70+ years but no overall trend…

Global hurricane energy

More ups and down but no trend since 1980…

Global hurricane energy per storm

No trend since 1980
Storms are not getting stronger but fewer…

Everything you find in this thread
Is consistent with what has been reported in the IPCC & found in official data and the peer-reviewed literature

Shhh ... don't tell anyone…

If you want to understand what the science of extreme weather, climate and disasters actually says, please sign up to The Honest Broker

Amazing to me that some of the things I write about you cannot find anywhere else

So I'm not gonna stop

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