Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
The Honest Broker Profile picture
@RogerPielkeJr
Feb 14, 2023 • 18 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
🧵
What the media won't tell you about extreme weather and its impacts

Here is a thread of some of the figures I've posted in recent months about extreme weather that I have never seen in legacy media reporting

All peer-reviewed and official sources . . .
Floods
IPCC finds no trends in flooding globally

Did you know that flood impacts in the US as a proportion of wealth are down >70% over 80 years?

Huge news, good news!

But don't tell anyone 🥸
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-…
Drought
The IPCC finds no long-term trends in meteorological or hydrological drought

In Western Europe specifically there is no trend in drought over >150 years
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-…
US heat waves
The US government's official metric for heat waves comes from a paper I co-authored more than 20 years ago

It shows an increase since ~1960s but a decrease since <1930s
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…
US heat waves
During the past 50 years, when heat waves have increased, mortality from extreme heat has fallen pretty much everywhere in the US
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…

That is good news!
Let's keep it up
US (mainland) hurricanes
IPCC, WMO, UNNCA are all in agreement
No upwards trends in landfalling hurricanes, including the strongest storms

Have you ever seen these graphs in the media (aside from Bill Nye and his sharpie;)
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…
US disaster costs

As a proportion of GDP US disaster costs have gone down

More good news!
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/billion-doll…
European disaster costs

As a proportion of GDP European disaster losses have gone down

Even more good news!
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/making-sense…
Global weather and climate disaster losses

As a proportion of GDP global disaster (weather and climate, but also overall) have gone down

Great news!
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe…
Disasters

This century the number of disasters tracked by EM-DAT has not increased, in fact down a bit

Important to understand why so that progress with respect to the Sendai Framework can be maintained!
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe…
US tornadoes

Reports of the strongest US tornadoes (EF3+) which cause ~70% of death and destruction are down in the long and short terms

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…
Damage from tornadoes supports the data on falling numbers of the strongest tornadoes

Both inflation-adjusted and normalized tornado losses have decreased
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…
Normalized US hurricane losses

As we would expect with no up-trend in US landfalls there is no trend in normalized US hurricane losses since 1900
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/pielkes-week…
Global hurricane landfalls

Lots of ups and downs over 70+ years but no overall trend

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac…
Global hurricane energy

More ups and down but no trend since 1980

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac…
Global hurricane energy per storm

No trend since 1980
Storms are not getting stronger but fewer

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac…
Everything you find in this thread
Everything
Is consistent with what has been reported in the IPCC & found in official data and the peer-reviewed literature

Shhh ... don't tell anyone

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/how-to-under…
If you want to understand what the science of extreme weather, climate and disasters actually says, please sign up to The Honest Broker

Amazing to me that some of the things I write about you cannot find anywhere else

So I'm not gonna stop

rogerpielkejr.substack.com

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with The Honest Broker

The Honest Broker Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RogerPielkeJr

The Honest Broker Profile picture
Feb 23
I have been digging into methodological and data errors in Grinsted et al. 2019, some of which you can see in the thread below

This nerdy thread on US hurricane loss data documents how bad data gets created (surely accidentally) . . .
A time series of base (i.e., current-year) loses was first compiled from annual reports published in the Monthly Weather Review by Chris Landsea in 1989 for 1949-1989

I extended the data using same methods to 1996

Chris and I extended back to 1900 for Pielke and Landsea 1998 Image
Then, Pielke et al. 2008 extend the dataset to 2005, again using the same methods

The heavy lifting was done by my then-student Joel Gratz

Joel graduated and went to an insurance company called ICAT . . . Image
Read 5 tweets
The Honest Broker Profile picture
Feb 22
Last month I revealed based on files part of the public record of the Michael Mann trial how Mann coordinated peer review of a paper of mine to ensure that it "would not see the light of day"

I only had a snippet of the relevant Mann email

Now I have the whole thing

And JFC... Image
First
New: the editor of GRL, Jay Familigetti, originally sent our submission to Mann!

That's right
A paper by Pielke & @ClimateAudit was sent to Mann to peer review

Mann wisely didn't accept but instead recommended hostile reviewers so that "it would not see the light of day" Image
@ClimateAudit Mann emails his partners Caspar Amann (NCAR) and Gavin Schmidt (NASA) to express his glee that this gives him an opportunity to cause harm

"Pielke Jr has finally made his bed!!" Image
Read 9 tweets
The Honest Broker Profile picture
Feb 20
🧵
"The U.S. installed 1,700 miles of new high-voltage transmission miles per year on average in the first half of the 2010s but dropped to only 645 miles per year on average in the second half of the 2010s"

Take that 645 miles/year to the next Tweet...

gridstrategiesllc.com/wp-content/upl…
The US has 240,000 miles of high voltage transmission capacity

An expansion of 645 miles/year is just about 0.3%/yr

Take that 0.3%/year HV grid expansion to the next Tweet
The Princeton study (@JesseJenkins) used to promote the Inflation Reduction Act claimed the HV grid has been expanding at a rate of 1% per year based on a newsletter from JP Morgan

That 1% is >3x greater than actual recent grid expansion rates of 0.3%

repeatproject.org/docs/REPEAT_IR…
Image
Read 7 tweets
The Honest Broker Profile picture
Feb 15
SpringerNature held off sending my submission for peer review because:

"We thought it prudent to seek advice on the potential risks of publishing claims that may appear to criticise the actions of government bodies"

Now under review

Read it here:
osf.io/preprints/soca…
Image
I was only informed of the evaluation of my paper for political risk after that review took place

This is a plain vanilla policy evaluation, but that should not matter

So in addition to passing peer review it had to pass political review

Just when you think you've seen it all
I was just asked if I am worried that commenting on this publicly might hurt my paper's chances of being published

Ha! Simply having my name on a paper probably does that ;-)

But sunshine is far more important
Read 4 tweets
The Honest Broker Profile picture
Jan 26
Biden: LNG exports—>historic hurricanes & floods
But is that true?
🧵⤵️
How about hurricanes?
Not increasing Image
Well, what about major hurricanes?
Not increasing Image
Read 8 tweets
The Honest Broker Profile picture
Dec 14, 2023
🧵
I have a new favorite example of bad statistics on disasters

By 2085, climate-fueled natural disasters will cost more than $100 trillion, or more than the entire US GDP

Big if true!

What is the methodology? Image
EM-DAT of course

Misinterpretation Left
What EM-DAT says right:
"what the figure is really showing is the evolution of the registration of natural disaster events over time"

Whoopsy
Image
Image
Media clickbait in 3..2..1.. Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(