The Feb 19-25 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.
SEVERE: NB, NS
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, MB, ON
HIGH: NL, PEI, QC, SK
ELEVATED: AB, North
About 1 in 43 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. New surge/wave has started in multiple provinces.
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Shortform graphics are available in English et en francais.
Longform en francais a venir.
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Here's the link to our full weekly Canadian COVID data report: covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
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Remember: No question is too small. No question is silly. YOU matter, and we're here to provide support.
covid19resources.ca/discussions/
Recommendations this week are still cautious, even for regions where forecast is currently ELEVATED or HIGH.
Why? Because waste water data are nearly 2 weeks old, but had started increasing in multiple places. Most Canadian provinces are likely now in or will soon enter a surge.
A key concern is that we're seeing increasing ICU admissions in the most recent 2 weeks of data compared to the preceding 2 weeks.
This is happening in multiple provinces, and in some it's quite a fast increase.
So, prudence is definitely warranted right now.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
CANADA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 43 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
CANADA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 43 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher
From @CDCgov:
About 1 in 5 adults have a health condition that might be related to their previous COVID-19 illness.
The best way to protect from long-lasting COVID symptoms is not getting COVID, and/or not getting it again.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
HIGH
About 1 in every 103 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
HIGH
About 1 in every 103 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~2X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~8X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
HIGH
About 1 in every 106 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
HIGH
About 1 in every 106 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~4X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~10X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
NOVA SCOTIA
SEVERE
About 1 in every 31 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
NOVA SCOTIA
SEVERE
About 1 in every 31 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~11X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~13X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
NEW BRUNSWICK
SEVERE
About 1 in every 47 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
NEW BRUNSWICK
SEVERE
About 1 in every 47 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~10X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~13X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
QUEBEC
HIGH
About 1 in every 46 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
QUEBEC
HIGH
About 1 in every 47 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
ONTARIO
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 34 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
ONTARIO
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 34 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~9X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
MANITOBA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 76 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
MANITOBA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 76 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~7X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~10X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
SASKATCHEWAN
HIGH
About 1 in every 84 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
SASKATCHEWAN
HIGH
About 1 in every 84 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~7X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~10X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
ALBERTA
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 70 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
ALBERTA
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 70 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~6X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths: similar to lowest point
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
BRITISH COLUMBIA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 50 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
BRITISH COLUMBIA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 50 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~6X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~7X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
NUNAVUT, NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, YUKON
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 77 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023
NUV, NWT, YT
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 77 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~6X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~3X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher
That's all folks.
I'm off to share this on Mastodon, then back to paper and grant writing.
Will check in again this evening.
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