Tara Moriarty Profile picture
🏳️‍🌈🇨🇦Assoc Prof @UofT. Bloodborne infections, Lyme disease, misinfo. @COVID_19_Canada. Defend journalism. Opinions mine. @MoriartyLab@med-mastodon.com

Feb 20, 2023, 33 tweets

The Feb 19-25 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.

SEVERE: NB, NS
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, MB, ON
HIGH: NL, PEI, QC, SK
ELEVATED: AB, North

About 1 in 43 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. New surge/wave has started in multiple provinces.

Here's the link to the folder where you can find downloadable png and jpeg versions of all our graphics.

Shortform graphics are available in English et en francais.

Longform en francais a venir.

drive.google.com/drive/folders/…

Here's the link to our full weekly Canadian COVID data report: covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…

And here's where you can sign up to join any of our free, evening, anonymous (if you want) Zoom sessions.

Remember: No question is too small. No question is silly. YOU matter, and we're here to provide support.

covid19resources.ca/discussions/

Recommendations this week are still cautious, even for regions where forecast is currently ELEVATED or HIGH.

Why? Because waste water data are nearly 2 weeks old, but had started increasing in multiple places. Most Canadian provinces are likely now in or will soon enter a surge.

A key concern is that we're seeing increasing ICU admissions in the most recent 2 weeks of data compared to the preceding 2 weeks.

This is happening in multiple provinces, and in some it's quite a fast increase.

So, prudence is definitely warranted right now.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

CANADA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 43 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

CANADA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 43 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher

From @CDCgov:

About 1 in 5 adults have a health condition that might be related to their previous COVID-19 illness.

The best way to protect from long-lasting COVID symptoms is not getting COVID, and/or not getting it again.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

HIGH

About 1 in every 103 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

HIGH

About 1 in every 103 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~2X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~8X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

HIGH

About 1 in every 106 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

HIGH

About 1 in every 106 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~4X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~10X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE

About 1 in every 31 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~11X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~13X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

About 1 in every 47 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

About 1 in every 47 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~10X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~13X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

QUEBEC

HIGH

About 1 in every 46 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

QUEBEC

HIGH

About 1 in every 47 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 34 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 34 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~9X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

MANITOBA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 76 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

MANITOBA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 76 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~7X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~10X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

HIGH

About 1 in every 84 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

HIGH

About 1 in every 84 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~7X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~10X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

ALBERTA

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 70 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

ALBERTA

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 70 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~6X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths: similar to lowest point

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 50 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 50 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~6X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~7X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NUNAVUT, NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, YUKON

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 77 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NUV, NWT, YT

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 77 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~6X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~3X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher

That's all folks.

I'm off to share this on Mastodon, then back to paper and grant writing.

Will check in again this evening.

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